EARLY LOOK: FLORIDA v. LSU

  Despite SNL’s ministrations in yesterday’s post, the Gator backers of the “Chicken Little” variety have all but forfeited this weekend’s contest with LSU.  The chat boards and call-in shows, propped up by the slothful of wit and feeble of heart, are rife with predictions of “a 20-point loss,” and hopes that “we [gators] don’t get embarassed.”  SNL, like a lighthouse on the sea of cowardice that currently floats the Gator fleet, is here to tell you that you are a bona fide  idiot if you don’t believe Florida can win this game.

Forget for a moment that Vegas has installed the Gators as 5-point favorites and turn to the empirical.  LSU is 4-0, with 3 nondescript home shellackings of cupcakes (yes, that includes you Miss St.), and one respectable victory on the plains of Auburn.  Because the Auburn victory is the most relevant in terms of talent and venue, this is where we look to prepare our case-in-chief.

Gators know that playing on The Plains at night is tough, this being the only venue that yielded a Gator-loss in 2006.  In a physical game LSU was able to prevail at Auburn 26-21.  In doing so, LSU racked up 398 total yards (220 passing and 178 rushing) and allowed 320 (250 passing and 70 rushing).  Those who witnessed this game can attest to the fact that the score was somewhat misleading as the defenses were largely stellar. 

SNL has oft-chronicled the futility of using transcendental comparisons to determine how good a particular team is, but this method comprises one of the few (ostensibly) objective means of comparison available and therefore, it is not just LSU’s victory on The Plains that must be considered, but what we’ve learned about both clubs in the weeks since.

Auburn has defeated UT by 2 at home (compare with UF’s 24-point road victory), and lost to Vandy by 1.  In those games, Auburn has averaged around 210 offensive (pun intended) yards.  The obvious inference is that LSU’s premiere victory came against one of the worst offensive clubs in CFB.

LSU has since posted a 34-24 home victory over Croom’s offensively incontinent Bulldogs.  There, LSU led 17-7 at halftime, and its defense gave up 300 yards and allowed MSU’s QB’s to complete 66% of their passes.  Nothing to be ashamed of in a game of relative insignificance, but hardly the statistical domination one would expect if, as many Gators believe, there exists no foreseeable scenario by which Florida can prevail over LSU in The Swamp this Saturday.  

The fact of the matter is that the Gator offense, warts and all, is by far the best offensive unit that LSU’s defense will face this year.  In fact, the Gator offense, even with its inarguable shortcomings to date, leads the SEC in scoring and Tebow, though occasionally inaccurate, leads the league in passer rating. 

Contrary to popular belief, the distillation process that underpins this week’s game does not tilt decidedly in LSU’s favor.  Florida is at home. Pope Meyer is a master at “circling the wagons” and LSU, while very, very good, has not played anyone outside of Auburn who posed even a credible threat.  Florida, in addition to a much tougher scehdule to date, is hungry, motivated, and knows that come Sunday, all perceived transgressions can be forgiven if they can defeat the Tigers this week. 

SNL will leave you all with a slightly revised quote by Rudyard Kipling in hopes that the dreary myopia currently gripping the Gator nation can be cured before 8:00 p.m. Saturday:

And the end of the fight is a tombstone white, with the name of the late deceased, And the epitaph drear: ‘A fool lies here who tried to Conquer the East.’

—So Sayeth the Shepherd