SEC V. BIG 12 AND THE COCKTAIL PARTY’S IMPACT ON THE BCS

I hate the gayyy-turds!

It  was only a matter of time before SNL was forced to add his sing-song voice to the choir of those consumed by the Big 12 v. SEC debate. 

Most know that the debate has been rigidly framed as “SEC defenses v. Big 12 offenses.”  This is conventional wisdom and few have bothered to look beyond this paradigm when comparing the 2 conferences.

 

Lacking the resources and time of the pundits, and unconstrained by convention, SNL takes a more global position on this issue.  

The lynch-pin of the conventional argument rests squarely on the shoulders of the quarterback, which is universally and correctly held to be the most important position in football at any level.  The overall performance of teams with upper-classmen at the QB position is oft-dissected and needn’t be replodded here.  Suffice it to say, however, that national championship caliber teams are led by seasoned QB’s more often than not.  It is important to note that the QB need not be the best player on the team or a superstar, but only experienced enough to avoid costly mistakes and make a “play or two” at crucial moments.  Leinart, Flynn, Leak, Bradford, White, Wuerrfel and so on…. 

Most punidts and statisticians take this paradigm a step further by factoring defense for obvious reasons.  To be sure, teams with a junior or senior QB and stifling defense seem to have the best recipe to win the BCS. 

Lacking pocket protectors, slide rulers, and oddles of leisure time to painstakingly review satistics from year’s past, SNL will rely on the old-fashioned “eyeball test” to divide the teams in each conference into 4 categories:  1) Elite; 2) Very Good; 3) average to good; 4) bad. 

Using this admittedly subjective system, even the most subjuective SEC homer will conclude that this year, the Big 12 trumps the SEC by the slightest of margins.  Here’s why:

The  SEC in 2008 has three “elite clubs”:   ‘Bama, Georgia, and Florida.  The Big 12 has 2 or 3 depending on your distillation process, but we can all agree on OU and UT.  However, in the very good category, the SEC has 1 at best (LSU), and even this is debatable and contingent largely LSU’s ability to win out, which is far from likely.  The Big 12, conversely, has at least 3 teams that are very good, TTech, Okie St., and Mizzou. 

For those of you who believe the SEC’s depth is the difference and look to the “average” category for support, there is a ray of hope in the form of the remaining schools in each conference.  South Carolina (5-3) and Ole Miss (the best 4-4 club in the country), are average to good, and likely better than the remainder of the Big 12 teams, of which only Kansas can be considered average to good.  So the SEC gains 1 back here.  The most ardent SEC supporter could attempt to add Vandy here, but this contention is summarily dismissed when considering that Vandy managed to lost to DUKE at home. 

In the aggregate, 6 of 12 Big 12 schools are elite or very good.  This is at least 2 (and arguably 3) more than the SEC can muster this year.  In the average to good category, the SEC can place 2 to the Big 12’s 1, which still leaves a significant gap between the 2 conferences.   

Naturally, a normal “SEC year” would find UT and Auburn hovering at or near the top-15 in both ranking and total defense, with South Carolina and at least 1 “write-in,” such as Ole Miss, UK, or Arkansas, in the top-25.  It is therefore not as much the strength of the second-tier Big 12 schools that carries the day  as it is the weakness of prennial power schools, UT and Auburn, that tilts this argument in favor of the Big 12 this year.  

Looking forward, its safe to say that the SEC and Big 12 will annually represent the best and deepest conferences in the Country by far.  SNL neither needs nor wants a bevy of statistics to support either conference’s superiority over time, because none it matters in 2008. 

It is foolish to believe that the winner of this Saturday’s WLOCP has more than a slugger’s chance to reach the BCS title game in the wake of PSU’s victory.  That said there are serious ramifications for the loser, who will be effectively barred from an at-large BCS bid and therefore relegated to…..dare I say…Orlando for a New Year’s Day game against you guessed it, the Buckeyes!! 

That the SEC and Big 12 will place 2 teams apiece in the BCS seems self-evident.  ‘Bama, even with a regular season loss and an SEC title game loss, is a shoe-in for one, same goes for the East winner (assuming no further regular season losses).  Saturday’s loser, therefore, will be “black-balled” by the BCS-you can bet on it. 

Forget UGA’s sophomoric stomp last year, if Florida needs any motivation they need look no further than last year’s miserable trip to Orlando.  SNL says this not just becaused of the result, but because the stadium, nearby facilities, and atmosphere of this game were horrible.  There’s not a restaurant or bar within miles of the stadium, which looks like a reconstituted Orange Bowl minus the flooding urinals. 

For the love of God Timmie, win this game!!!!