UGA V. ALBERT: THE PICK

The forces of good and evil collide in Jax in two days.  At issue is everything from the SEC East to the BCS and,  in a hyperbolic sense, the very fate of mankind.  For those of you who, like SNL, cannot stop belaboring in excruciating fashion each morsel of statistical data that supports or undermines your belief that your team will prevail, SNL offers the following:

Preamble:  A brief survey of the message boards, blogs, local and state fish-wraps, and national media outlets confirms that all fans present in Jax on Saturday are relatively certain they are going to win convincingly. 

Georgia’s optimism stems largely from last week’s drubbing of the Tigers, which proved to be all the salve needed to heal the wound left Darth Saban’s shock-troops when they kicked the crap out of UGA only a month ago.  UGA has run the table since then, and looked more or less mediocre in the process.

The zeal of the Gator-allegiant stems from back-to-back-to-back thumoings of SEC opponents in the wake of a 1-point loss to Ole Miss in a game that statistically, was also dominated by Florida. 

The result, two confident teams and fan bases sporting more or less the same resume-right?

When Georgia has the ball:  Georgia under Mark Richt has been nothing if not efficient.  Using primarily pro sets, UGA is a run-first/play action pass team when clicking on all cylinders.  Georiga’s offense compensates for its predictability by executing.  This year, UGA has harnessed this recipe into 34 points a game (2nd to Florida’s 42), and ranks 1st in total offense, passing offense, and 2nd in rushing offense.  Despite the gaudy statistics, however, UGA failed to “wow” anyone until last week, posting nondescript victories over Vandy (24-14), USC (14-7), and UT (26-14). 

Staring across the line of scrimmage at Stafford, Moreno and co. will the league’s #1 scoring defense, #3 total defense (allowing several yards per game more than ‘Bama) and #3 rushing defense.  Breakdowns against Ole Miss notwithstanding, most semi-objective Gator followers feel that this unit is supremely talented at LB and DB, and above average along the line-with results on par with the leagues other elite defenses, USC and ‘Bama.

Since Georgia has played USC and ‘Bama, it seems that these two games are far and away the most useful in a comparative sense.  UGA mustered only 50 yards rushing against ‘Bama and 106 against USC.  Florida arguably lacks the inside presence of ‘Bama and USC, but is equal to or better at all skill positions and deeper to boot.  As such, SNL expects Georgia to run ineffectively early, which is important for reasons set forth below.  Knowshon may still go over 100 yards, but will not gash this unit as he did last year, and will find the yards hard to come by in the first half. 

The inability to run early, coupled with Florida’s offense, should result in added pressure to make plays on the part of Stafford, who is clearly capable, but far less efficient when his backfield mate struggles.  Georgia is not a team that relishes unfavorable down and distance situations.

Statistically, this side of the ball is a stalemate and SNL offers a hardy guffaw for those who think this Gator defense will dominate Georgia.  That said this defense won’t have to dominate Georgia, just hold them to something in the rnge of 24 to 28 points, which not only possible, but plausible.

When Florida has the ball:  For starters, Florida is #1in  scoring offense, #2 rushing offense and #3 total offense heading in to Saturday’s matchup.  Florida is also improving, which is scary, and loaded with speed.  Deconstructing Florida’s offense is difficult SNL hasn’t the time or space to devote to this task. 

For comparative purposes, the Dawg D is the league’s 6th ranked unit, giving up 77 ypg against the run (2nd), a beneficent 222 ypg against the pass (11th), and allowing 21 points per game (8th).   You seeing what SNL is seeing?  Georgia’s exuberant fans, exulting last week’s victory with by getting drunk and killing animals, seem to think that UGA’s 2008 defense is “tailor made” to stop Urban’s spread attack. 

SNL doesn’t see it.  Florida has a distinct advantage on this side of the ball, not just because Florida’s offense is statistically better than Georgia’s defense, but because Florida has explosive playmakers all over the field.  Harvin, Rainey, Demps, James, Murphy, Deonte, Hernandez, the other guy, and that dude, can all go the distance.  SNL expects Florida to paint the corners with quick passes and option-reads and go over the top with impunity against Georgia’s marginal pass-rush (1 less sack than Florida through 8 games).  In all, SNL expects there will be no less than 24 Gator points by half, and you should too.

Conclusion:  This doesn’t have to be difficult.  Florida’s defense is much closer to the units that have stymied UGA thus far (‘Bama and USC for those who skipped to the end), and should give Georgia some trouble.  Similarly, Florida’s offense is light years ahead of the one that routed UGA in Athens only a month ago and Georgia will be gashed early and often, forcing the Bulldogs to play catch-up.  Put another way, a mistake by Florida’s defense yields a 25 yard run by Knowshon, a mistake by UGA’s defense yields an E-SPIN highlight that ends with Gators celebrating in the end zone. 

 Naturally, turnovers, injuries, or asteroid showers may alter this game in ways unforeseen, but barring anomalous intervention from unseen forces, this game should be won by the team with more weapons, more motivation, and a Pope for its Coach. 

Florida loses time of possession but wins in a game that will make SEC purists puke, 41-27.  Book it.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd