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College Football: The way it is is the way it was (for the most part).

September 15, 2009 in ACC, BCS, BIG 10, Dr. Saturday, E-SPIN, Foolmer, Gators, PAC 1 + 9, The Hat, The Poodle, Vols | No comments

  The season is a mere 2 weeks old and, as always, the drama of CFB has seen the fortunes of many diametrically altered in a span of 3 and a hal hours this past Saturday.  In general, what stands out the most to SNL is not the ostensible resurgence of the Wolverines or comeuppance of the Houston Cougars, it’s the plodding inefficiency of specific regimes who thought  they were something other than what they are, but are in reality, are who they already were.  There’s also a few, who are what they never have been.  Make sense?   Let Me explain:

1.  The Vestwas bludgeoned again by The Poodle.  There is a great write-up on the Buckeyes’ offensive ineptitude on Dr. Saturday’s site, and SNL would be re-plodding plowed ground were he to get into all of them.  But some of the more noticeable deficiencies include the complete absence of the zone-read, which is the staple of every spread offense from Ann Arbor to Gainesville (and about a thousand high schools in between), and the failure to make USC cover the field (all of it, that is) by checking to a bubble screen when the Trojans (purposefully neglected) to place a man over the slot receiver.  

In laymen’s terms, Ohio State was advertised as a newly constructed offense built on the skills, shoulders and tattoos of its phenom QB (save some canvas TP, you may want to add a few more when you’re languishing on the bench in the NFL).  What Ohio St. is, however, is the same unimaginative, poorly coached and schemed offense that hasn’t been able to beat a team of equal talent since 2002-for those of you parochial by nature, this means a team outside the Big 10.  What is certain, or as certain as anything after 2 weeks, is that  Rich Rodriguez-irrespective of this year’s outcome-is a better coach than The Vest, and Big Blue will run The Vest out of town in another year or two.  Even worse, there is nothing left on the Buckeye schedule sufficient to buoy this year’s Buckeyes into the national consciousness.  In sum, OSU remains the team that is better than the other teams in its conference, but incapable of beating the best teams in the SEC, Big 12, or PAC 1 + 9, at least for now.

2.  Kiffin’s credentials, aside from his bridal selection, are worthy of questioning.  In fact, if you closed your eyes during the UCLA/UT game on Saturday for any reason other than excessive alcohol consumption, this game looked exactly like last year’s crap-bowl between these teams which was coached not by UT’s blonded boy-toy, but by his corpulent predecessor, Fool-mer.  The offense was straight outta’ Crompton, with the 5th-year senior throwing for less than 100 yards and 3 picks.  It seems safe to say the Fulmer could have could have produced this result and saved the school a ton of money and off-season embarrassment.  Speaking of which, Kiffin should be mouth agape by midway through the second-quarter this Saturday and suffering from Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder by 6:00 EST or so.  Best part:  Fulmer is CBS’ SEC analyst.  In sum, Kiffin is just a mouthier version of the old boss, and he’s also the Jabrone that marched into CFB’s most hyper-competitive conference (and its not even close) and made an ass out of himself without any independent achievements to support his sophomoric hubris.  

3.  Rich-Rod.  Say what you will about this guy, he’s a liar, he breaks the NCAA’sludicrous practice constraints for the NFL feeder league that is NCAA football etc…  This guy can Coach.  True, Michigan and ND both looked undersized and slow on the defensive side of the ball, but how can you not like this Forcier cat?  He’s small and ornery, like NCAAF’s version of Tanner from The Bad News Bears, and, unlike USC’s frosty-tipped signal caller, looks like he’s not a complete douche. 

4.  The OBC can still draw up some plays and, still struggles on occasion in the red zone.  3 field goals on possessions inside UGA’s 20, along with the worst kickoff coverage this side of Zook undid the Cocks, but credit the OBC for putting on a show following the nationally televised cat-fight with NCSU.   

5.  It’s official, USC is now poised for 2 weeks of BCSCG hype, followed by an untimely loss-or 2 if Saturday’s vanilla performance is a harbinger-and a season-ending win streak which will prompt the E-SPIN heads to sing in unison “SC is playing as well as anyone in the country right now.”   While it would be nice for Florida deliver a solid a**-kicking of the prophylactics in the BCSCG, the key to this wish is the phrase “right now,” which impliedly points out that the Trojans will have sucked against someone else that also sucks a month or so before. 

6.  Florida’s trip to Baton Rouge looks a little rosier to the uninitiated.  LSU was outgained by over 200 yards in Washington last week and judging by the scoreboard, struggled to put away Vandy.  This sentiment, which seems common amongst Florida fans, belies the fact that LSU was never threatened by Vandy, and coasted to relatively convincing victory nonetheless.  And, playing Vandy is about as exciting as drunk-dialing an ex-girlfriend at 2 a.m. becuase the girl you were buying drinks for all night lef with your buddy.  Still, it would be nice to see  The Hat joining The Vest and the cherub-faced Kiffin on the first train outta’ town if the Tigers get cleansed by the Gators on October 11, but don’t count on it.  

7.  Florida State’s trip to Gainesville looks like a horror show.  Hell, the ‘Noles may get pummeled so bad by the polygamists next week that they may just forfeit the remainder of the season.  The only upside for SNL is watching Bownden hem and haw on his
Sunday program, dropping punchy 1-liners like “I don’t know who #19 is,” and “I can’t remember what play we had called there.”  Like all sentient beings, SNL likes Bowden, but his equity in the program has dwindeld to an all-time low and it may be time to move on.  Bowden for Senate!  For the uninformed, the ‘Noles squeaked by Jackson St. last week after trailing most of the 4th-quarter.  Would it be an overstatement after 2 games to say the Florida State sucks-again?  Probably not.  But always looking to err on the side of caution, SNL will refrain from making so strident a statement for fear of a bellicose response from the ‘Nole readers, who don’t know what that last sentence means.  But, after Tech kicks the crap out of Da’U this Thursday, all bets are off.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, Degenerate Gambler, LSU, Meyer, The Hat, The OBC, the Vest, UT

FLORIDA: THE NEW USC?

November 4, 2008 in ACC, BCS, BIG 10, E-SPIN, Gators, LSU, Main Content, Notre Dame, PAC 1 + 9, Pope Meyer, SEC, Saban, TV SCHEDULE, The Hat, UGA, scUM | No comments

  How great is this?

The Gator-Nation is obviously bored, its primary league rivals have been vanquished in shocking fashion and (as predicted by SNL) the national media has begun hyping Florida as the “best 1-loss team in the Country.” 

Looking toward Saturday’s contest against Vandy (who lost to Duke) provides little excitement for a fan base crashing from the endorphin-laced crushing of UGA.  Sure, the Gators will rally somewhat when the Cocks and the OBC roll into town, and put their game faces on when they go on the road to face the ‘Noles, but today, the Gators are spent.

The local airwaves continue to be rife with BCS permutations that place Florida in the BCS title game, which under normal circumstances would have SNL worrying incessantly about Florida looking past this week’s opponent, but that’s not going to happen when, as stated above, this week’s opponenent managed only 7 points in its recent loss at home to Duke. 

SNL has therefore opted to avail itself of the wistful winds that are blowing through Gator Country this week and somehow wound up wondering what if?  What if Urban wins his second BCS title in 4 years?  What if Tebow returns next year?  What if Florida is preseason #1 next year?  What about the year after that?

This line of thinking inevitably segued into a debate with a colleague and Notre Dame homer, who maintains that Florida remains a “regional team,” with little appeal nationally and a fairly limited sphere of longitudinal relevance. 

After some back and forth, I undermined this argument to my satisfaction, but feel that further explanation is warranted to preemptively combat this situation before it beomes a full blown pandemic. 

First, the so-called “national teams,”  which traditionally include USC, Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio State, and to a lesser extent, Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, and Penn State, earned this distinction primarily in the 60’s and 70’s.  Naturally, this group benefitted greatly from large fan bases which, coupled with television and lack of paradoy, gave them greater exposure than many southern schools, including Florida.  In the 70’s it was not uncommon for a fan living in the south to see Notre Dame on television 4 times in a season, but see Florida, Georgia, or LSU only once or twice. 

That said CFB has since morphed into a multi-billion dollar business, and college football games are televised 5 days per week and available on every major and cable network all day Saturday.  An indisputable corrolary to this is that recruiting is also a multi-million dollar business that takes place on a national scale, at least for the major programs.  What this translates into is choices for those fans who enter the CFB world as ”undecided voters.” 

The conclusion, which is likely to invite the ire of traditionalists like Beano Cook, is that the resume necessary to be considered a “national team” is drastically different than it was 35 years ago.  Sure, winning and losing remain constants, but rivalries and conference strength, which translate into more and higher profile photo ops for the best of the best, are equally important.  National titles are also important, but not as important as consistently receiving an invite to a BCS bowl. 

Whatever the criterium, the notion that only those teams who were considered “national powers” in 1975 are somehow legacies that remain the only members of this “national” fraternity is fatuous at best.  Today, there exists a fluidity to college football that was not present 30 years ago.  The vast amount of television exposure is such that the new CFB paradigm contemplates ascension to and descension from the so-called “national teams” based on a 5-year span of dominance or incompetence. 

Tennessee, which won the BCS in 1998,  is a prime example of this.  So are USC and Oklahoma, who re-entered the national consciousness after falling from grace in the 90’s.  Da’ U, who is all but entirely irrelevant after dominating the 90’s, is another example. 

For its part, Florida sits on the cusp of an SEC title, which would be its 8th since 1991, a possible NC, which would be its second in 4 years and 3rd in 11 years, and oh yeah, is poised to enter the preseason next year as one of the top-2 teams.  By any standards, this resume makes Florida a “national team.”  And, should Florida win the SEC, BCS, and enter next year as pre-season #1, it should and will be argued that Florida has become what USC was a few short years ago, the most dominant program in college football.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, BIG 10, PAC 1+9, Pope Urban, SEC

SEC V. BIG 12 AND THE COCKTAIL PARTY’S IMPACT ON THE BCS

October 29, 2008 in ATS, BIG 10, Foolmer, Gators, Joe Pa', LSU, Main Content, SEC, Saban, UGA, Vols | No comments

I hate the gayyy-turd's more than Barrack Hussein Bin Laden!
I hate the gayyy-turds!

It  was only a matter of time before SNL was forced to add his sing-song voice to the choir of those consumed by the Big 12 v. SEC debate. 

Most know that the debate has been rigidly framed as “SEC defenses v. Big 12 offenses.”  This is conventional wisdom and few have bothered to look beyond this paradigm when comparing the 2 conferences.
 
Lacking the resources and time of the pundits, and unconstrained by convention, SNL takes a more global position on this issue.  
The lynch-pin of the conventional argument rests squarely on the shoulders of the quarterback, which is universally and correctly held to be the most important position in football at any level.  The overall performance of teams with upper-classmen at the QB position is oft-dissected and needn’t be replodded here.  Suffice it to say, however, that national championship caliber teams are led by seasoned QB’s more often than not.  It is important to note that the QB need not be the best player on the team or a superstar, but only experienced enough to avoid costly mistakes and make a “play or two” at crucial moments.  Leinart, Flynn, Leak, Bradford, White, Wuerrfel and so on…. 
Most punidts and statisticians take this paradigm a step further by factoring defense for obvious reasons.  To be sure, teams with a junior or senior QB and stifling defense seem to have the best recipe to win the BCS. 
Lacking pocket protectors, slide rulers, and oddles of leisure time to painstakingly review satistics from year’s past, SNL will rely on the old-fashioned “eyeball test” to divide the teams in each conference into 4 categories:  1) Elite; 2) Very Good; 3) average to good; 4) bad. 
Using this admittedly subjective system, even the most subjuective SEC homer will conclude that this year, the Big 12 trumps the SEC by the slightest of margins.  Here’s why:
The  SEC in 2008 has three “elite clubs”:   ‘Bama, Georgia, and Florida.  The Big 12 has 2 or 3 depending on your distillation process, but we can all agree on OU and UT.  However, in the very good category, the SEC has 1 at best (LSU), and even this is debatable and contingent largely LSU’s ability to win out, which is far from likely.  The Big 12, conversely, has at least 3 teams that are very good, TTech, Okie St., and Mizzou. 
For those of you who believe the SEC’s depth is the difference and look to the “average” category for support, there is a ray of hope in the form of the remaining schools in each conference.  South Carolina (5-3) and Ole Miss (the best 4-4 club in the country), are average to good, and likely better than the remainder of the Big 12 teams, of which only Kansas can be considered average to good.  So the SEC gains 1 back here.  The most ardent SEC supporter could attempt to add Vandy here, but this contention is summarily dismissed when considering that Vandy managed to lost to DUKE at home. 
In the aggregate, 6 of 12 Big 12 schools are elite or very good.  This is at least 2 (and arguably 3) more than the SEC can muster this year.  In the average to good category, the SEC can place 2 to the Big 12’s 1, which still leaves a significant gap between the 2 conferences.   
Naturally, a normal “SEC year” would find UT and Auburn hovering at or near the top-15 in both ranking and total defense, with South Carolina and at least 1 “write-in,” such as Ole Miss, UK, or Arkansas, in the top-25.  It is therefore not as much the strength of the second-tier Big 12 schools that carries the day  as it is the weakness of prennial power schools, UT and Auburn, that tilts this argument in favor of the Big 12 this year.  
Looking forward, its safe to say that the SEC and Big 12 will annually represent the best and deepest conferences in the Country by far.  SNL neither needs nor wants a bevy of statistics to support either conference’s superiority over time, because none it matters in 2008. 
It is foolish to believe that the winner of this Saturday’s WLOCP has more than a slugger’s chance to reach the BCS title game in the wake of PSU’s victory.  That said there are serious ramifications for the loser, who will be effectively barred from an at-large BCS bid and therefore relegated to…..dare I say…Orlando for a New Year’s Day game against you guessed it, the Buckeyes!! 
That the SEC and Big 12 will place 2 teams apiece in the BCS seems self-evident.  ‘Bama, even with a regular season loss and an SEC title game loss, is a shoe-in for one, same goes for the East winner (assuming no further regular season losses).  Saturday’s loser, therefore, will be “black-balled” by the BCS-you can bet on it. 
Forget UGA’s sophomoric stomp last year, if Florida needs any motivation they need look no further than last year’s miserable trip to Orlando.  SNL says this not just becaused of the result, but because the stadium, nearby facilities, and atmosphere of this game were horrible.  There’s not a restaurant or bar within miles of the stadium, which looks like a reconstituted Orange Bowl minus the flooding urinals. 
For the love of God Timmie, win this game!!!!
-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, BIG 10, Big 12, SEC, UGA

MID-WEEK MUSINGS AND EARLY LOOKS AT CFB INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES

October 22, 2008 in ACC, BCS, BIG 10, LSU, Main Content, PAC 1 + 9, SEC, The Hat, UGA | No comments

“I have a high art, I hurt with cruelty those who would damage me.” –

-Saturday Nite  Lights, 2006 A.D.

 Not a ton of news today-Gville remains peculiarly quite on the eve of homecoming, but SNL suspects things will be picking up soon.  In any event, there remains a strong belief that Florida will route UK, both in Gville and Vegas, where the oddsmakers have installed Florida as 24.5-point favorites.

Speaking of things amoral, vacuous, and otherwise irredeemable, SNL’s investment recommendations last week faired only slightly better than the investment houses that bet heavily on subprime mortgages.  Not to worry, SNL will simply ask the feds to bail him out, its the American Way!

With an ATS record of .500, SNL has been dubbed “Even Stephen” by the grinning local Vig.  The reason for the grinning, naturally, is because .500 means “juice” in Vegas parlance, or 10% to the unemployed eye-talian SNL “invests” with.  Like the executives at Lehman, SNL plans on resurfacing this week at an investment firm near you with renewed (but unsubstantiated) belief that he will soon be shopping for Rolexes courtesy of Vegas….

Early Leans….

Auburn v. WVU (-3):  Auburn, recently defrocked by the voters, visits one of the four “redneck cradles of civilization” for a Thursday night game.  Auburn’s defense is still solid and irrational though it may be, the SEC “don’t take kindly to strangers.”  Ask Obama, who was pulled over in MS for a broken taillight.  Leaning towards a spirited Auburn group here.

Boston College at UNC (-3):  Starting to believe that BC is Top-25 material.  Good defense, decent QB, and student fan base every bit as drunk and stupid as your regular student fan base, with one-third less attractive girls.  UNC injuries should help.

Texas Tech (+2) at Kansas:  There must be millions of clever ways to dispel the fatuous notion that TT is a top-10 team.  SNL can’t think of any, so an ass-kicking by Kansas will have to do. 

Okie State v. UT (-13):  Doesn’t the law of averages mandate that someone cover the spread against UT?  Why not Okie State, they are, after all, coached by a man, who is over 40.  In waht must be characterized as the very embodiment of “gambling,” leaning towards the Cowboys. 

Georgia v. LSU:  This game is more notable for the quandary it presents Gator backers with than anything else.  Georgia win sends Gameday to Jax and likely gets the Gators attention.  An LSU win helps SOS but likely makes Georgia a sizeable underdog next week.  That said Georgia pisses SNL off.  Knowshon, Stafford, and Green are all elite players, but Georgia can’t put anyone away and LSU is still a bellicose group-especially after being emasculated in Gainesville.  SNL likes the short number here for the Tigers.

Colorado (+21.5) at Mizzou:  Lotta points for a dispirited group collecting the pieces of their shattered ambitions.  Hmmm…..

Elsewhere…

The BCS computers like the SEC…SNL, much to the chagrin of his scientist father, will not bore you with the crushingly oppressive  mathematics, but the suffice it to say that the computers have the SEC ranked lightly ahead of the Big 12 at this point.  Here’s the “BCS Computers for Dummies” version…

The “z-score” is a composite of the 6  computers used to rank the conferences as a whole.  The computers exist inedependent of one another and use largely the same criteria albeit with different weights assigned to certain variables. 

The average of these 6 z-scores is:

SEC: 1.138
Big 12: 1.127
ACC: 0.804
Big 10: 0.776

Big East: 0.328
PAC 10: 0.277
MWC: 0.122

WAC: -0.605

MAC: -1.127
C-USA: -1.235
Sun Belt: -1.605

One would think that even the most rudimentary of computers would have the MWC above the PAC-10 by virtue of the fact that the MWC is 5-0 v. the PAC-10.  Just be happy SEC is where it should be, #1.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ACC, ATS, Big 12, PAC 1+9, SEC

THE ALTERNATIVE TRUTH OF THE BCS OR, “IS THAT A BUCKEYE UP AHEAD?”

October 20, 2008 in ACC, ATS, BCS, BIG 10, Degenerate Gamblers, Gators, Joe Pa', LSU, Main Content, PAC 1 + 9, Pope Meyer, SEC, Saban, Saint Bobby, The Hat, UGA, Vols | No comments

The BCS is officially upon us and most, if not all CFB apologists, have long been innoculated from shock induced by the first official BCS poll, which has been shown to be anything but an edict once the final whistle blows.

That said this year’s inaugural BCS poll has illuminated a frightening possibility:  Ohio State back in the BCS Title Game.  Yep, the Buckeyes, emphatic losers on the biggest stage to Florida, LSU, and most recently, USC, are but one of several one-loss teams with a plausible shot at making it to Miami this January.

For fans of 10th-ranked Florida, OSU’s ranking gives rise to quite a conundrum.  First, Florida must hope that the Buckeyes prevail over Joe Pa’s Lions this week as the Lions remaining schedule is miserable.  This too, however, comes with a significant downside as an OSU win further bolsters USC’s standing.  USC, like PSU, has a miserable schedule and should coast to 11-1, and like OSU, is ranked ahead of Florida. 

This peculiar melding of time, space, and prose, could devolve into a scathing indictment of the Buckeyes, who have (somewhat unfairly) become the Buffalo Bills of our time.  This wooden interpretation, however, sails wide right of the real culprit, the BCS and the resultant confusion for football purists, such as SNL.

For example, Florida fans must now root for FSU (ranked 25th), Alabama, and Georgia to bolster its strength of schedule and, oh yeah, try and win each game as convincingly as possible-which means kicking a late field goal if necessary to go up by 23 points (sorry Coach Shannon, this is big boy football). 

This scenario comprises the Rubik’s Cube that is the BCS, at least  for the contenders and their fans.  Long gone are simpler times, when a loyal foot soldier of the Gators could in good-faith hope for the ‘Noles entire team to simultaneously combust or pray for Da’ U’s cranksters to be sentenced to 15 to life after being ensnared in a reverse cocaine sting in Coconut Grove. 

Nope, today’s CFB landscape is rife with fleeting liaisons in early September that, like one night stands with your undergraduate neighbor, are interminable, at least until you move on to next season (or into a new apartment).  Each week’s scores comprise layers upon layers of comparative data, used to feed software created by dorks and harnessed into computer polls that distill a finished product that seems strangely without any empirical worth whatsoever (see Ohio State ranked above USC as Exhibit “A”). 

Naturally,  those who are forced to endure a season’s worth of dashed hopes, missed chances, and crushed dreams can channel this clusterf*** into a positive.  For example, fans of UM and the Vols can exalt in the fact that their suckitude is at least partly responsible for Florida’s lowly ranking.  Ditto for the entire PAC-10 excluding the Men of Troy. 

Irrespective, the sum of the BCS parts is to be villified for what it isn’t-an objective system that produces a champion by way of a playoff system.  Nonetheless, proponents for the current system remain (though many are in hiding from November through January).  Most vapidly tote the “its better than nothing” party line-the hell it is.  SNL, for one, would rather return to the days of conference bowl affiliations and split titles than allow this charade to continue unfettered.  Naturally, if Florida wins out and defeats an undefeated ‘Bama and by doing so reserves aspot opposite UT, OK, or USC in Miami, SNL will take it all back. 

ERSTWHILE……

The delicate balance between good and evil has been restored, albeit temporarily, as ‘Bama’s behemoth defensive tackle, Mount Cody, is expected to miss 2-4 weeks with an MCL sprain.  Naturally, this can be explained as simply “football,” or alternatively, a karmic event brought on by Darth Saban’s incessant pursuit of world domination.  Either way, The Hat is probably feeling a little better about now.

Mizzou and Texas Tech are much worse than advertised, SNL expects both to be ranked no higher than 20th when the dust settles and won’t be surprised if one or both are unranked at some point.

Boomer Sooner Defense has surrendered damn near 1,000 yards in its last 2 games.  SNL is well aware that the QB play in the Big 12 is superb this year, but remains resistant to the notion that the Big 12 offenses are so good that Oklahoma-whose coach made his way to the $4 million per year money train coaching defense-can’t hold the Jayhawks to under 491 yards.  South Florida held the Jayhawks to 60 less yards than the bevy of blue chippers in Norman, fyi. 

Finally, how good is Texas?  Damn good.  How’s that for genius insight? 

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ACC, BCS, Big 12, Darth Saban, PAC 10, SEC

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