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MORE GIFTS FOR THE DEGENERATES…AND A RETRACTION

September 26, 2008 in BIG 10, Degenerate Gamblers, Main Content, PAC 1 + 9, SEC | No comments

  After further review, SNL is adding some games and for the first time, taking one off the board after several sleepless nights.

First, picks already posted are Colorado (+6), Duke (-7), Northwestern (+9), Illinois (+15) and Pitt (-15)-see previous post for reasoning if you really think that matters.  Now, for those of us strident enough to move forward…

Retraction(s):  SNL is chagrined to admit that he was wanton and reckless in picking Illinois.  A fact which is amplified by SNL’s years in Gville during the Zooker’s tenure.  Sure, Zook was (and remains)wildly entertaining in much same way Steve Carrell is in The Office.  But in retrospect, SNL cannot justify “investing” his son’s college education fund on a team led by Zook (who, quite frankly, is a bit of a doofus), no matter how much mirth Zook has provided over the years. 

Seriously, a second review of the numbers caused SNL to balk, based largely on the run defense of the Illini’, which stinks.  The “Juice’s” wild inconsistency, along with Zook’s inability to articulate a cogent thought, were the proverbial “cherries” atop the “this-pick-sucks” sundae, and SNL must therefore remove this play from the card.  In effort to assuage the 29 of you who more or less check-in every day, SNL will provide some palatable alternatives.

Miami (-7.5) v. UNC:  For starters, UNC’s QB broke his ankle last week against Vinnie’s Hokies.  If you read SNL’s previous posts, you know that this freak injury cost UNC the game, but saved SNL from a mob-style hit by Vinnie and his goons, who are apparently the Gambinos of Blacksburg.

Fans of Da’ U, in addition to threatening to “bust caps” in some “Gator ass” and bonding out of jail for domestic battery in the wake of their loss to Florida, have been treated to a club that is maturing under Coach Shannon.  Yep, like the Jeffersons, Da’U is “movin’ on up”-nice run defense, maturing offense versus no QB and porous rush defense in Pro Players Stadium this weekend-this one is easy.  Da’ U to the hizzy-treat yourself to a “grill” for an authentic Miami experience when this one’s over.

Nebraska (-6) v. V. Tech:  Please know loyal reader that should news of this pick be made known to Vincenzo, SNL’s days are numbered-this is no lie.  If SNL has failed to post by Sunday afternoon, please contact law enforcement in Alachua County, Florida to report his untimely demise at the hands of the Hokie- crazed Vinne “Hands” Randazzo.  The other goombahs call him “hands” because he doesn’t use bullets on most “jobs.” 

With a trembling lower lip SNL must tell you, however, that Vinnie’s Hokies are averaging only 60 yards per game through the air.  This is a staggering statistic in the “modern era,” which has apparently yet to infiltrate the well innoculated township of Blacksburg, where parking for your horse can still be found in the downtown area.  Throw in a long road trip to the middle of Honkey, Nebraska and a very good Nebraska offense, and you’ve got a recipe for a winner and in SNL’s case, an old-fashioned eye-talian beatdown. 

Final Card:

Colorado (+6)

Duke (-7)

Northwestern (+9)

Pitt (-15)

Miami (-8)

Nebraska (-6)

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ACC, Degenerate Gamblers, PAC 1 + 9, SEC

NOBODY HATES TO SAY “I TOLD YOU SO”

September 20, 2008 in ACC, BIG 10, Degenerate Gamblers, Main Content, PAC 1 + 9, SEC | No comments

Bear hunting season  We all know that employing transitive reasoning (you know, x beat, y, y beat z, therefore x is better than z) is essentially non sequitir-i.e. a useless way to rate the relative power of college football teams.  However, SNL has been preaching to anyone willing to listen that USC’s beatdowns of Virginia and Big 10 middleweight, Ohio State, would be much less impressive as the season wore on. 

In true Ms. Cleo fashion, Virginia has since gone on to lose 45-10 to UConn.  Those of you who are truly worthy of society’s pity swa UConn escape with a 31-28 victory of the visiting Baylor Cubs last night.  One step removed is the fact that the Baby Bears were drummed 41-13 by Wake Forest-at home.  The inevitable distillation of these facts, which is by no means difficult, is that Virginia may be the worst team in college football this year, which in turn means that USC’s opening day victory is about as relevant as Jenna Jamison’s ability to act.

The prophecy will be completed -stay with me here-when Ohio State loses another 2 (and possibly 3) games this year, which should further undermine the wave of Trojan love that has swept up the mainstream media outlets.  Trust SNL, the Men of Troy are quite vincible.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, PAC 10, Trojans

R-E-S-P-E-C-T: WEEK 4 PICKS (9-6-1 ytd)

September 19, 2008 in BIG 10 | No comments

  Notre Dame at Sparty (-7):  SNL was saddened by the results of its recent google image search on Coach Weis, which revealed literally hundreds of photo-shopped images ridiculing Coach’s ummm…..rotundity.  Lamenting the sad state of contemporary society while staring blankly at its the horrid images, SNL discussed the matter with a colleague at the local “Gas’n'Sip” who, after some thoughtful tokes on his cigarette and a sip of his code red, said “ain’t that guy Drew Carry’s dad?”  

Enough about Coach Weis’s image battle with the sophomoric goons who post on the internet, on to the game.  Here is all you need to know about Notre Dame’s rousing 35-17 win over Wolverines:

Team Stat Comparison
 
1st Downs 21 14
3rd down efficiency
 4-12 3-12
4th down efficiency
 1-2 0-2
Total Yards 388 260
Passing 229 147
Comp-Att
 19-28 10-21
Yards per pass
 8.2 7.0
Rushing 159 113
Rushing Attempts
 42 34
Yards per rush
 3.8 3.3
Penalties 7-79 3-38
Turnovers 6 2
Fumbles lost
 4 0
Interceptions thrown
 2 2
Possession 32:12 27:48

Those unfortunate enough to watch this game will tell you that the stats do not lie, Michigan looked to be the better team, had the better athletes, and that Notre Dame continues to be horrible along the offensive line. Therein lies the value in this line, as Nore Dame backers, who are every bit as deluded as the Aly-Bammy contingent, actually believe they won last week-when the reality is that Michigan, by virtue of six turnovers, actually lost.

Michigan State, conversely, has looked every bit the upper-mid level Big 10 team SNL thought they would.  With a senior quarterback and a slew of upperclassmen on both sides of the ball, MSU is going to be a thorn in the side of the Big 10 heavyweights, Penn St. and Wisonsin and light heavyweight, OSU this year.  Naysayers will look to last week’s lethargic win over FAU, but the wiseguys know that this game resembled Florida’s somewhat lackluster win over Miami in that it was clear early on that FAU would be unable to score.  The result was a workmanlike 17-0 win which is supported by fairly lopsided statistics in Sparty’s favor, including a 15 minute advantage in time of possession.

Add to this the fact that everyone who isn’t Regis hates Notre Dame and therefrore greets their game with the Irish as plus royaliste que le roi, and Sparty is no exception.  Don’t think, just believe.

Pick:  Sparty (-7)

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

OSU’S TRAGEDY, AND THE RISE AND FALL OF THE PAC 10

September 15, 2008 in BIG 10, Main Content, PAC 10, SEC, TV SCHEDULE | No comments

The predictable aftermath of USC’s decapitation of the Buckeyes (metaphorically illustrated to the right) has been a consolidation of USC atop the polls and  the now-common chorus of the pundits, who are extolling the virtues of this year’s Trojan squad byshouting to all within earshot their belief that this team is every bit the equal of the Leinart-Bush dynasty that preceded them.  Even SNL, hard-headed by any objective measure, is not so obstinate as to mainatin that USC is anyhting but the #1 team in CFB right now.

However, SNL will be the first to go on record as saying that USC’s convincing victories of arguably the worst team in the ACC (which lost to Uconn this week 45-10), and what will, by year’s end, be a 2 or 3 loss Buckeye squad, are insufficient to warrant the devout allegiance of the CFB world at this juncture of the season.

With respect to the Buckeyes, the disparity of speed at the skill positions and the plodding, unimaginative offense favored by the Vest, made for yet another mismatch.  In its most digestable form, OSU’s inability to run caused its QB’s to do something that, quite frankly, they suck at-pass!!  SNL knew, as did most of the flock, that the ability to run against USC’s front 7 was predicated on OSU’s willingness and ability to steadily complete the short and intermediate passes necessary to back off the linebackers who, by the way, are complete beasts.  Fortunately, OSU had neither the willingness nor the ability and treated the CFB world to another game that was less engaging than an episode of the Surreal Life.

 The inevitable manifestation on the Buckeye side of the coin  has been an equally loud chorus of detractors, who can now point to a trifecta of OSU futility on a national stage as grounds for denying the Buckeyes any BCS consideration, even if they win the remainder of their games.  The more nebulous, and hence more titillating, issue is whether the Buckeyes are now so demoralized that they are incapable of seeing themselves as a top-5 program, a condition which, if true, may result in as many as 3 more losses this season. 

The BCS is also a recipient of unwanted Buckeye baggage which, coupled with the Pac-10’s miserable weekend-which saw losses to five Mountain West teams, including a 59-0 loss by UCLA and a home loss by ASU to UNLV-as USC now officially plays no one for the rest of the year.  What this means is that the winner of the Oklahoma-Missouri contest in the Big 12 title game, which is a certainty, and the winner of the Florida-Georgia game, will be vying for the right to play the Trojans, who should breeze through the remainder of the lambs on their schedule.

Result?  A 1-loss SEC champ, which is also inevitable, will be shunned for the Big 12 champ-which will send the SEC fans into a trailer-tipping frenzy, and provide the basis for anther year of fruitless “we-need-a-playoff” discussions amongst the fans.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

USC SWEATERS V. OSU SWEATER VEST AND MANDEL ON THE GATORS

September 11, 2008 in BIG 10, Degenerate Gamblers, Girls, Main Content, PAC 10, SEC | No comments

 SNL has scrutinized from a myriad of angles the potential outcome of a contest featuring the USC sweaters and the Vest, popularized (somewhere) by Ohio St. Coach, Tressel.  Without overtly divulging the winner, let’s just hope that the football game is more evenly matched for the Buckeyes.

USC v. Ohio St., cleverly dubbed “trobuckalypse” by Dr. Saturday, has quickly become one of the least anticipated top-5 matchups in CFB history.  Naturally, this is largely due to the Buckeyes uninspiring win over Da’ Baby ‘U last week, which was admittedly pathetic.  That said the national pundits, including Mandel (below) and Herbstreit, have sounded strangely similar to the Presidential Candidates this week as they laud Ohio State’s talent as every bit the equal of USC’s, but conclude that USC simply cannot lose this game, and should win handily.

Degenerate Gamblers are on board with this assessment as over 70% of the money wagered to date has been on the favorite, despite a jaw-dropping opening line of 10.5.  SNL, for one, would like to remind everyone that while USC is strong, VIRGINIA is freakin’ terrible-as in, won’t win more than 3 games in the lowly ACC this year and barely managed to triumph over Richmond.  Naturally, this means that the Men of Troy’s absolute trouncing of the swordless Cavaliers IS essentially meaningless-despite the national media’s corporate by-line:  “USC traveled all the way across the country and pounded a BCS team.”  Virginia, which lost nearly every signficant contributor to last year’s team which, oh yeah, won five games by less than 5 points and was woefully inept on offense, is no more a BCS team than Duke.

Also embedded in the collective psyche of the CFB world are the Buckeyes’ colossal failures in the BCS title game and to a lesser extent, the perceived weakness of the Big 10 as a whole.  Despite how vogue SEC (and USC) fans find it to pile on the Big 10, and especially, the Buckeyes, the talent gap between these two teams is negligible.  So it is surprising, to say the least, that the Buckeyes have gone from preseason No. 1 to nothing more than another lamb for the invincible Trojans who, for all of their non-conference success, have blown it plenty over the past two seasons to much lesser opponents.

Intangibles aside, this game likely boils down to the Buckeyes ability to protect the QB and put together some semblance of a passing game, which they have been unable to do when matched up with D-lines of commensurate experience and talent.  SNL suspects this is not lost on “the Vest,” who, despite his dubious choice of sideline garb, fields a very talented team and is very aware that he will have to loosen up USC’s run-stoppers to have any hope of success.  For Buckeye backers, this game is yet another chance to show that its raison de’ etre’ is not limited to  blackening the eyes of its little sisters in the Big 10 and summarily surrendering to the first foe of equal or greater talent.

In sum, Ohio State is no more a punching bag than USC is an unconquerable fortress of football greatness.  WHOA!!! The Trojans, untested by the lamb that is UVA, are more than capable of losing this contest, particularly if their gunslinging quarterback continues his Favre-esque penchant for forcing the football into tight coverage.

ELSEWHERE…

 

Stewart Mandel SI’s premier CFB pundit, Stewart Mandel, handsome devil that he isn’t, crafted the following response to an e-mail query this week:

I’ll cut right to the chase. Florida overrated? Miami underrated? Or somewhere in between?
– Kyle, Miami

Despite the final score, Miami showed a lot of progress last Saturday night. The ‘Canes’ influx of young talent on defense seemed to have an immediate effect, holding down Tim Tebow and the Gators’ cast of skill players for the better part of three quarters. And the impact of new defensive coordinator Bill Young, formerly of Kansas, was undeniable. Miami mixed up its blitzes and coverages far more than it did when Randy Shannon was still calling the shots on defense (though in his defense, Shannon didn’t have much need for trickery back when his arsenal included Ed Reed, Sean Taylor, Jonathan Vilma, Antrel Rolle …)

Are the ‘Canes underrated? That’s hard to say when they weren’t “rated” to begin with. SI picked Miami to go 7-5 going into the season, and that’s probably still a fairly realistic projection. Because of their youth, the ‘Canes figure to be inconsistent, and while QB Robert Marve looked good at times in his debut, he’s still clearly lacking talent around him.

And yes, I do think the Gators are slightly overrated. While my fellow pollsters elevated them to fourth over the weekend, I kept them at seventh (which, I later found out, was the lowest of any AP voter. While some Florida fans are viewing Saturday’s performance as a sign of their defense’s return to dominance — what did they expect against such a young and suspect offense? My concerns with the Gators’ offense remain the same. For all this talk about Urban Meyer’s stockpile of weapons, at the end of the day, Florida once again relied almost entirely on Tebow and Percy Harvin to run the ball. It burned them against Georgia and Auburn last season, and it will burn them on a couple occasions this season if somebody else doesn’t step up soon.

SNL couldn’t disagree more with Stewie’s conclusion of the Gator’s 2008 team, but has to admit that unless and until Florida puts together an explosive and well-balanced offensive performance against a meaningful opponent, Mandel’s poorly crafted perception will be the norm rather than the exception.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: the Vest

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