Degenerate Gamblers

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Saturday’s Picks (1-1 ATS YTD) and an absurdly premature assessment of the Kiffin Regime

September 5, 2009 in ATS, Degenerate Gamblers, Main Content, Pope Meyer, UGA, Vols | No comments

Georgia (+5.5/61u) at Okie St.:  The more I look at this game, the more I like it.  UGA seems to have more talent on both lines of scrimmage, and more overall speed.  In addition, there’s some value here because this year’s UGA is (ostensibly)O a pedestrian outfit while Okie St. is everyone’s “dark horse” in the Big 12.  Not sure of UGA has the firepower to win this on outright, but like getting the 5.5 with a dog that can win outright. 

Wake Forest (-2) v. Baylor:  Like Skinner & Co. laying the small number against another team coveted by the E-SPIN heads.  Wake always plays well at home and has a tendency to under-promise and over-deliver as they did when Ole Miss came to town last year.  Still, can’t help but feel the ACC is the AIG of the CFB world, and Baylor is, well, a nice small-cap.  Take the points with confidence. 

Tennesseelooks alot like the kid you beat up on the last day of school who went home and juiced all summer for the sole purpose of kicking your ass in the fall.  Crompton is crisp, the o-line is strong, and the defense is big and athletic.  Kiffin is using alot of sets with a power running game and the offense looks like a big, ugly, orange version of the old Trojans.  In fact, UT looks like UT used to look every year albeit slightly more advanced. 

This really should come as no surprise as SNL posited last year that the “eyeball test” rendered UT a top-10 team.  In other words, it wasn’t talent that was lacking at UT, it was a team and administration torn by loyalty to a coach who’d done some great things, but was no longer capable of winning.  SNL will leave the reasons for UT’s demise under Fulmer to the loyalists, but suffice it to say that the Kiffin experiment looks good so far.

Is UT ready to beat Florida at The Swamp?  Probably not.  Still, UT will have a shot at a PAC-10 unit before coming to Gainesville while the Gators are digesting a D-II cupcake and a worse than expected Troy.  UT looks hungry and the Kiffin regime, which was so easy to mock during the summer, now appears to be a formidable foe.  Bryce Brown, by the bye, has a nice TD run and UT looks ready to ascend into the ranks of the SEC elite, which is a good thing for the league.  One thing’s for sure, Florida could use the SOS, but better be ready for a battle when the Vols come to town.

Bold prediction:  UT finishes with 9 wins, plays on Jan. 1, and finishes in the top 15.  The way Kiffin recruits, a the UF-UT rivalry is going to be great in the years to come.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Kiffin, Okie St., UGA, UT, Vols

About last night…

September 4, 2009 in BCS, Degenerate Gamblers, Dr. Lou, E-SPIN | No comments

Night 1 is in the books and, thanks to a late play on Boise St., SNL owes Vinnie “Hands” Moresci only juice for last night’s action.  This if fortuitous because Vinnie is not exactly your three-piece suit sort of investment broker.  He’s more the “lays-pipe-at-the-docks-and-works-for-the-Local Teamsters 132″ sort, if you get my drift.  So, when Tuesday rolls around, you show up at “Sal’s Fine Italian Food” and meet Vinnie not with excuses about how you grew up watching Spurrier fill the air with footballs and ring up the scoreboard like a pinball machine, but with the money owed, or else.  In exchange, Vinnie will gurantee to timely pay your “investment” winnings when applicable, or refrain from breaking you face (no, seriously), as the case may be.

For those of you who weren’t here last year, SNL will restate some ground rules for college football “investing” that you’d be wise to follow:

1.  Establish a per game “investment amount” you can live with and stick to it no matter how strong or weak you thinkyour investment is and no matter how far up or down you are.  The easiest way to do this is to set a dollar amount for the season and divide this amount by the number of weeks (roughly 14).  Further divide you weekly allotment by the number of investments you want to make that week.  For internet investors, investments can be as little as $1.00, for4 those meeting scary Italians in the back of bars, its usually $25.00 to $50.00.

2.  Invest only 1/2 this amount during weeks 1 and 2.  This will allow you to gauge the actual strength and weakness of this year’s squads.

3.  Straight investments only-no excuses.  The margins for the house on parlays and teasers are much wider, which is bad for you.

4.  Do not “Chase”, i.e do not make an investment late in the day to compensate for earlier losses.  If you liked the play that ,uch, you should have placed the investments earlier.  Chasing will lead to your demise faster than any single mistake you can make.

5.  Remember, it’s a marathon not a sprint.  SNL did employ a winning investment strategy until his third year of CFB investing.  Since then, SNL’s investments have yielded an average of 46% ROI (i.e. $1,000.00 in investments will return $1,460.00 after paying juice on losses). 

Now, run along you silly kids!!

Tags: ATS, Degenerate Gambler, Degenerate Gamblers

The Return of the King (No, not Tebow, SNL)

August 7, 2009 in ACC, Degenerate Gamblers, E-SPIN, Gators | No comments

First, let’s clear the air…I’m sorry that I couldn’t entertain all of you throughout the long off-season.  Like most, I’ve been working overtime to ensure that my wife will be understanding when my ravenous addiction to college football rears its head in…ohhh, about 3 weeks now.  Fortunately, the Doctor (who is paid to entertain you) has been diligently harvesting nuggets of interest for the more gluttonous among you.

That said I will once again be adding my voice to the chorus of those marginally qualified to discuss college football and occasionally, the investment opportunities therein found.

True, my summer sebbatical has caused me to miss commenting on such notables as:  Tebow-virgin-Gate; Bowden’s forfeitures of victories; Kiffin’s unsubstantiated bravado; and about a dozen or more abjectly worthless stories concocted by scribes attempting to justify their (often paltry) salary. 

In the plus column I feel VIGOROUS and, I’ve been lifting weights-”I’m huge Jerry!”  So in the weeks and days ahead, we’ll share some laughs, lose or win some money on missed over/unders blown by a missed FG or PAT, mock the ‘Noles, ‘Da U, and the PAC 1+9, and watch Gators and SEC dominate  on the field (and airwaves, thanks E-SPIN!) and most importantly, share the unbridled fuzziness and warmth that college football brings to each of us to the chagrin of our loved ones.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

GREAT VIDEO AND SATURDAY’S PICKS

November 8, 2008 in ACC, ATS, BCS, Cheerleaders, Degenerate Gamblers, Gators, Main Content | No comments

The embedded video below is only marginally relevant, but is nonetheless another piece of evidence that supports the CFB side in the NFL v. CFB debate.  In sum, NFL fans largely consist of drunken blue-collar sorts who hail from the lowest socio-economic demographic.  As a general rule, the the higher up in the stands you go, the bigger the losers (this guy is in the top row apparently).

CFB, conversely, has only drunken students, who like it or not, will soon graduate to the law, medical, and business professions and let’s face it, drunkennesss is a forgiveable sin when you’re 20 years-old, at a football game, and otherwise on the cusp of cushy white-collar life.  CFB also has bands, alumni, and cheerleaders who actually have some athletic skill. (as opposed to the augmented tarts who appear better suited for fame of the porno variety).

MOVING ON….

Haven’t tallied the last two weeks results, but have made it to 8 games above .500 ATS.  Also, it s my son’s 1st Birth day today, so gotta be brief.

Louisville (+6) v. Pitt:  Pitt won last week in an emotional game.  True, they beat the Irish, who are guaranteed to lose against a team with a winning record.  Still, Pitt is due for an outright loss or close call against the Cards, who lost to the Cuse last week.  This pick is more about Pitt’s inability to string together good performances, that Louisville’s ability to play football, so tread lightly here.

Kentucky (+13) v. UGA:  UK not getting enough credit due to the UF blowout but hell, who isn’t UF blowing out these days?  Good UK defense stops Noshow’s running game and keeps it close.  Strong pick.

Kansas (+1) v. Nebraska:  Had to check the IS when I saw this line.  Kansas’ offense is superb, Nebraska’s defense is horrible.  Nebraska’s offense is okay, Kansas’ defense slightly less horrible.  Take the senior QB and say it slowly, “rock, chalk, Jayhawk.”  Strong pick.

Oregon St. (-7.5) at UCLA:  Love UCLA’s coaches, but hat their players.  OSU has best running game in the PAC 1+9, UCLA has worst defense.  My son, who is currently drooling and slamming a pot lid on the kitchen floor, could figure this one out.  Beavers over Bears.

Cincinatti (+7.5) at WVU:  WVU has improved.  So has Cinci.  Like Cinci’s rush defense to keep this one close and, Cinci’s QB can throw a little.  Take the TD.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ATS, Picks

FINAL THOUGHTS: UK v. UF, SATURDAY’S PICKS, AND A YOUTUBE JEWEL

October 25, 2008 in ACC, ATS, BCS, Degenerate Gamblers, Fans, Gators, LSU, Main Content, Pope Meyer, SEC, The Hat, UGA | No comments

“Act like a man of thought – Think like a man of action.” -

  Not much left to say about UF v. UK.  The mood surrounding the stadium remains unchanged, the fans are essentially making “an appearance” at The Swamp and making plans to meet at one of the nearby watering holes at halftime. 

Crying baby and absent wife, so here’s a brief synopsis of Saturday’s investment opportunities:

Wake at Da’ U (+3/41o):  Wake rebounds here-Skinner has nice day and this game goes over the number-easy, peezy, japaneezy.  Shannon kicks late field goal for 27-21 win and thanks Urban Meyer afterward.  Like da’ Canes and Da’ over.

T. Tech v. Kansas (pk/67o):   Welcome to the Big 12, where the teams score on each other like drunken greeks on spring break.  Over, over, over.

Okie St. at UT (-13/670o):  If UT wins another blowout, they should be placed in the NFL by plebiscite.  Okie and points-I’m a man!!!

Arkansas (+6/56o) v. Ole Miss:  Nitt’s wild ride continues…Hawg’s cover the number, Nutt wins a close one, and Florida’s SOS is minutely improved. 

Georgia v. LSU (-1/51o):  Posed on this game earlier.  Brief recapitulation:  Georgia struggles to run and pass, LSU struggles to run and pass, see Gerogia and LSU struggle to run and pass.  Final score 23-20, Dawgs or Tigers win-take the under.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ATS, Degenerate Gamblers, SEC

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