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Cleverly dubbed “Flori-Bama-geddon” by Dr. Saturday, the “game of the century of the year” is finally upon us.  What can we add to the cacophony of the well-coifed heads at E-SPIN and the other media outlets that hasn’t been said already?  Not much. 

The teams look roughly equal on paper and no one has much sense about what is going to happen in the ATL today.  The Gator plaudits, naturally, think Tebow is the difference between 2 teams that are otherwise symmetrical reciprocals of one another.  Maybe they’re right.  The ‘Bama loyalists, conversely, feel that Ingram and their defense, which is admittedly a frightening sight, will put them over the top.  And, for the most part, the E-SPIN heads have quit “Tiger Woods-ing” their hot interns just long enough to voice a consensus pick for Alabama. 

Since we at SNL are a small operation, incapable of matching blows with the marginally talented but highly overpaid heads yapping on cable, we’ll use this space to talk about something novel, perhaps even revolutionary:  Tim Tebow’s legacy and more specifically, how Tiger Woods has helped define it.  

What?  How?  Sit back flock, and have a listen. 

Tebow’s star has shone brightly since the day he signed with Florida and has brightened since, prompting Dr. Satuday to dub him “The Tebow Child” and countless others to promulgate some variation of the Tebow-is-Jesus-meme’.  The natural by-product of the “Tebow phenomenon,” of course, has been a smaller, but equally vociferous cadre’ of Tebow haters. 

This is easy enough to understand because it is the way of things.  For example, we at SNL have little more than a cursory interest in baseball, but will stop on occasion to root against the Yankees.  The difference, however, between the casual dislike of teams or individuals that are showered with adulation and the seemingly ubiquitous love for Florida’s quixotic QB is that Tebow has earned the right to be admired by us, the fans. 

How he has done this is perhaps best explained by the litany of athletes and other public figures who have parlayed their fame and fortune into a self-indulgent buffet wherein they are free to worry only about themselves, names such as Pitino, Burress, Irvin, Jordan, Barkley, Lewis, Ewing, Thomas, McNair, Huggins, everyone talking head at E-Spin, not to mention Letterman, countless politicians, CEO’s, and bankers.

Put another way, at every turn we are let down by people we admire, trust, and look up to; gambling, boozing, drugs, theft, adultery and the list goes on.  In general, the moral malaise of the privileged is a simple equation:  “I take what I want, without concern for others.”  The latest embodiment of this ubiquitous covenant of the famous is Tiger Woods, whose fall from grace has taken the world by surprise, but only because Tiger has been such an enigmatic figure outside of the golf world.  In the end, Tiger is just another person who has exploited his exalted status for personal gain without concern for those that would be damaged. 

This is the point where the cynics patronizingly tell us that “athletes are not role models” etc… While this may be true, it doesn’t mean that athletes can’t be role models, and it damn sure doesn’t mean that we don’t wish they were.  And every so often, they are. 

What separates Tebow from his peers and makes him such a transcendent figure is that we can count on him.  No, not to win every game or make every pass, but to make decisions according to a core set of values, values that we all aspire to, but don’t always live up to.  For those with young children, this is doubly true.   Sure it’s corny, cliche’ and wistful to hope want our heroes to be just that, but it’s who we are.  And, Tebow could, like Tiger, parlay his fame into a revolving door of beautiful co-eds, actresses, and other celebrities.  He could parlay his fame into a narcissistic world of self-gratification.  But he won’t. 

So today, whether you be a fan of the Tide, the Gators or neither, you should also be a fan of Tebow, he won’t let you down.  He never does.    

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Not a lot of time flock-wife needs to go to TJ Maxx, maybe Bed, Bath & Beyond too, if we have the time.  SNL will be back before the 3:30 regional coverage with some strong to fairly strong picks courtesy of Fokker, one of which involves the pencil thin hombre pictured right, who is none other than the QB Da’ U and the favored son of Da’ U’s mouth-jeweled fan base. 

This means, of course, that Vinnie “Hands” Moresci, ardent supporter of the Hokies and part-time vigorish, will be watching closely.  This is never a good thing since Hands reputedly choked a man unconscious last weekend for looking at his wife a little too long.  Word to the wise:  If you see Vincenzo out and about with the missus, acknowledege and look away as if she were the center of the sun and a danger to your retinas. 

Moving on….

6-4 ATS YTD…

UNC (+3) at G. Tech:  G. Tech, full-fledged member of the protractor club, hosts Butch Davis’ Heels today.  For those new to the scene, Davis is the former coachof Da’U, which means he knows how to assemble thugs and get them eligible, even at a fine institution like UNC.  Incestuously enough, it was Davis’ old team that exposed Tech a couple of Thursday’s ago, and SNL, heedless of his hatred for the Da’U and its progeny, is looking to cpitalize.

Tech is weak on the lines of scrimmage this year as evidenced by all of the green jerseys in Tech’s backfield a week agao.  The Heels, conversely, are strong on the lines of scrimmage.  In laymen’s terms for the “hard of thinking,” this means UNC should be able to win first down more often than not, which is never a good thing for the Jackets because their QB’s arm is the CFB equivalent of Nedmo’s special fin.  The pick, UNC +3.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ATS, BCS, Degenerate Gambler, DEGENERATES, SEC

The forces of good and evil collide in Jax in two days.  At issue is everything from the SEC East to the BCS and,  in a hyperbolic sense, the very fate of mankind.  For those of you who, like SNL, cannot stop belaboring in excruciating fashion each morsel of statistical data that supports or undermines your belief that your team will prevail, SNL offers the following:

Preamble:  A brief survey of the message boards, blogs, local and state fish-wraps, and national media outlets confirms that all fans present in Jax on Saturday are relatively certain they are going to win convincingly. 

Georgia’s optimism stems largely from last week’s drubbing of the Tigers, which proved to be all the salve needed to heal the wound left Darth Saban’s shock-troops when they kicked the crap out of UGA only a month ago.  UGA has run the table since then, and looked more or less mediocre in the process.

The zeal of the Gator-allegiant stems from back-to-back-to-back thumoings of SEC opponents in the wake of a 1-point loss to Ole Miss in a game that statistically, was also dominated by Florida. 

The result, two confident teams and fan bases sporting more or less the same resume-right?

When Georgia has the ball:  Georgia under Mark Richt has been nothing if not efficient.  Using primarily pro sets, UGA is a run-first/play action pass team when clicking on all cylinders.  Georiga’s offense compensates for its predictability by executing.  This year, UGA has harnessed this recipe into 34 points a game (2nd to Florida’s 42), and ranks 1st in total offense, passing offense, and 2nd in rushing offense.  Despite the gaudy statistics, however, UGA failed to “wow” anyone until last week, posting nondescript victories over Vandy (24-14), USC (14-7), and UT (26-14). 

Staring across the line of scrimmage at Stafford, Moreno and co. will the league’s #1 scoring defense, #3 total defense (allowing several yards per game more than ‘Bama) and #3 rushing defense.  Breakdowns against Ole Miss notwithstanding, most semi-objective Gator followers feel that this unit is supremely talented at LB and DB, and above average along the line-with results on par with the leagues other elite defenses, USC and ‘Bama.

Since Georgia has played USC and ‘Bama, it seems that these two games are far and away the most useful in a comparative sense.  UGA mustered only 50 yards rushing against ‘Bama and 106 against USC.  Florida arguably lacks the inside presence of ‘Bama and USC, but is equal to or better at all skill positions and deeper to boot.  As such, SNL expects Georgia to run ineffectively early, which is important for reasons set forth below.  Knowshon may still go over 100 yards, but will not gash this unit as he did last year, and will find the yards hard to come by in the first half. 

The inability to run early, coupled with Florida’s offense, should result in added pressure to make plays on the part of Stafford, who is clearly capable, but far less efficient when his backfield mate struggles.  Georgia is not a team that relishes unfavorable down and distance situations.

Statistically, this side of the ball is a stalemate and SNL offers a hardy guffaw for those who think this Gator defense will dominate Georgia.  That said this defense won’t have to dominate Georgia, just hold them to something in the rnge of 24 to 28 points, which not only possible, but plausible.

When Florida has the ball:  For starters, Florida is #1in  scoring offense, #2 rushing offense and #3 total offense heading in to Saturday’s matchup.  Florida is also improving, which is scary, and loaded with speed.  Deconstructing Florida’s offense is difficult SNL hasn’t the time or space to devote to this task. 

For comparative purposes, the Dawg D is the league’s 6th ranked unit, giving up 77 ypg against the run (2nd), a beneficent 222 ypg against the pass (11th), and allowing 21 points per game (8th).   You seeing what SNL is seeing?  Georgia’s exuberant fans, exulting last week’s victory with by getting drunk and killing animals, seem to think that UGA’s 2008 defense is “tailor made” to stop Urban’s spread attack. 

SNL doesn’t see it.  Florida has a distinct advantage on this side of the ball, not just because Florida’s offense is statistically better than Georgia’s defense, but because Florida has explosive playmakers all over the field.  Harvin, Rainey, Demps, James, Murphy, Deonte, Hernandez, the other guy, and that dude, can all go the distance.  SNL expects Florida to paint the corners with quick passes and option-reads and go over the top with impunity against Georgia’s marginal pass-rush (1 less sack than Florida through 8 games).  In all, SNL expects there will be no less than 24 Gator points by half, and you should too.

Conclusion:  This doesn’t have to be difficult.  Florida’s defense is much closer to the units that have stymied UGA thus far (‘Bama and USC for those who skipped to the end), and should give Georgia some trouble.  Similarly, Florida’s offense is light years ahead of the one that routed UGA in Athens only a month ago and Georgia will be gashed early and often, forcing the Bulldogs to play catch-up.  Put another way, a mistake by Florida’s defense yields a 25 yard run by Knowshon, a mistake by UGA’s defense yields an E-SPIN highlight that ends with Gators celebrating in the end zone. 

 Naturally, turnovers, injuries, or asteroid showers may alter this game in ways unforeseen, but barring anomalous intervention from unseen forces, this game should be won by the team with more weapons, more motivation, and a Pope for its Coach. 

Florida loses time of possession but wins in a game that will make SEC purists puke, 41-27.  Book it.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Pope Meyer, SEC, UGA

“Act like a man of thought – Think like a man of action.” -

  Not much left to say about UF v. UK.  The mood surrounding the stadium remains unchanged, the fans are essentially making “an appearance” at The Swamp and making plans to meet at one of the nearby watering holes at halftime. 

Crying baby and absent wife, so here’s a brief synopsis of Saturday’s investment opportunities:

Wake at Da’ U (+3/41o):  Wake rebounds here-Skinner has nice day and this game goes over the number-easy, peezy, japaneezy.  Shannon kicks late field goal for 27-21 win and thanks Urban Meyer afterward.  Like da’ Canes and Da’ over.

T. Tech v. Kansas (pk/67o):   Welcome to the Big 12, where the teams score on each other like drunken greeks on spring break.  Over, over, over.

Okie St. at UT (-13/670o):  If UT wins another blowout, they should be placed in the NFL by plebiscite.  Okie and points-I’m a man!!!

Arkansas (+6/56o) v. Ole Miss:  Nitt’s wild ride continues…Hawg’s cover the number, Nutt wins a close one, and Florida’s SOS is minutely improved. 

Georgia v. LSU (-1/51o):  Posed on this game earlier.  Brief recapitulation:  Georgia struggles to run and pass, LSU struggles to run and pass, see Gerogia and LSU struggle to run and pass.  Final score 23-20, Dawgs or Tigers win-take the under.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ATS, Degenerate Gamblers, SEC

“I have a high art, I hurt with cruelty those who would damage me.”

  Noel Devine (the precocious youngster on the left with the mouth jewelry), torched the formerly formidable Auburn defense last night for 200 yards rushing.  Here is a summary of SNL’s reaction to the the game itself, which went something like “Auburn looks pretty good….wait….not so good ,but okay…..wow, Auburn sucks.” 

Seriously, there exists little need to painstakingly detail Auburn’s lack of offensive sophistry or interrupt the reverie of the West Virginia plaudits, what few there are anyway.  For SNL, the significance of last night’s game has nothing at all to do with polls, bowls, or the respective plights of Tuberville and Uncle Stew (shown below).  Nor does Florida play Auburn, so there’s no SOS component here, at least not directly.

  SNL was therefore challenged to spin Auburn’s debacle  into something postive, a daunting prospect when you consider that Auburn’s incompetence was witnessed by a national audience, and even worse, gave SEC detractors further reason to doubt the SEC’s supremacy over the other BCS conferences. 

Ultimately, SNL was able to harness Auburn’s woeful performance into something worthy of note.  The epiphany came in the 4th quarter when Auburn, trailing by a touchdown, was at midfield with the ball and SNL was praying (literally)  for an Auburn touchdown.  Yes, Auburn, the Lex Luther to Florida’s Superman, the nemesis from the west that has ruined so many of SNL’s Saturday’s in years past.

At this precise moment, SNL realized that Auburn’s likely loss was unintentionally illustrative of a something very unique to the SEC, we care for our kin folk. Yep, like a dysfunctional family who bands together against outsiders, such as the Department of Children & Families and law enforcement, the SEC is deeply concerned with the success of all of its siblings when not busy hating one another. 

Carpet Baggers and yankees of various (and circumspect) origins will scoff at this notion while they adjust their ascots; “Left Coast” blokes will roll their eyes while they puff their hippie lettuce; and midwesterners will threaten revenge for their annual beatdowns.   But the facts are what they are and the chants of “S-E-C…S-E-C” during the last two national championships (and back-to-back basketball championships by Florida) provide evidence of this phenomenon. 

So in a strange way, SNL mourns Auburn’s loss as if it were his own today, and in an even stranger way, appreciates on a sublime level how great SEC football is. Noe let’s go kick some UK a–!

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: SEC, Tuberville, WVA

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