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As the LSU-Florida showdown nears, the LSU message boards are making it abundantly clear that LSU fully expects to win this game-and, by a fairly significant margin.  

Naturally, there is no statistical significance to the banal banter of fans, nor do fans throw, catch, run, block or tackle come gameday.  However, SNL has long subscribed to the theory that the confidence, complacence, fear, and hubris of a teams fans is often personified by their team with disastrous (or fantastic) results.  

For example, when Florida lost to Ole Miss two weeks ago, the crowd was about as animated as the ostensibly “diverse” group that watched that smooth talking dude debate that  angry old guy on every freaking channel last night. SNL took note of thousands of empty seats before kickoff and (wrongly) assumed that the Gator faithful were “fashionably late.”  By the 2nd quarter, however, it was apparent that Florida fans simply weren’t that excited about playing a 23-point underdog and had instead opted to stay home and nurse their hangovers.

Keeping with SNL’s theory, the malaise of the Gator allegiant had spread like STD’s at a fraternity house and ultimately, manifested itself in the players, who were clearly less than amped before kickoff-which is why the E-SPIN heads will hawk their weekly CFB promo at the Cotton Bowl this week instead of The Swamp. 

Applying this theory to the upcoming SEC showdown, and particularly, the overconfident Tigers of the LSU variety, gives rise to a situation that has been much more favorable to The Gators in recent years;  the role of the underdog.  Naturally, the rigid contingent of fans who worship at the Vegas altar will run to the safety of the current spread, which is Gators by 4-5, to undermine this assertion.  For those who fall into this category, SNL weeps for your lack of understanding.

The fact is that the Gator chatboards, talkshows, and even national media have embarked on a furious “What’s wrong with Florida?” campaign (see SNL’s previous post for more on this).  This engine of discontent has been oiled by Gator fans with disastrous effect ( See Tebow’s stoic reaction after throwing a perfect strike to Harvin last week in last week’s “disgraceful” 38-7 road win as Exhibit “A.”)

Irrespective of the origins, the Gators have found themselves to be underdogs in the eye of the public and more importantly, in the eyes of both Gator and LSU fans.  Therefore, if SNL’s theory holds true, LSU’s players are expecting little adversity on Saturday-the defense will dominate the line of scrimmage and Chuck “The Truck” will run through gaping holes torn in the Baby Gators weak defensive front.

Florida players, conversely, have suffered a shocking loss and heard for weeks now how bad they are. The restless Gator-backers have piled on by openly grousing about the offense’s inability to be perfect and the defense’s seeming lack of progress. 

The predictable result is that the Gators, and their fans, have their backs against the wall.  This in turn means that unlike the poorly prepared and cathartic group of Gators that showed up two weeks ago, The Swamp this Saturday will be the home of a focused, angry, scared, and determined Gator Nation. 

The result, 23-19 Florida, of course. 

But make no mistake Gator fans, there exists a real need to diametrically alter your general tenor, which is eerily similar to the end of Spurrier’s reign, when winning by too little was grounds to attack the OBC and losing was unacceptable.  The current spate of negativity surrounding the Gators should work in our favor this week, but in the long run it will run off coaches, dissuade recruits and make Gator football a “chore” instead of a treat.  Govern yourselves accordingly.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tags: Gators, LSU, SEC, Tebow, Urban

  SNL awoke today to find the grass greener, the sky “bluer,” and air fresher.  Why?  Because we are one day closer to the Florida v. LSU.  As if this simple truth was insufficient, LSU DE, Ricky Jean-Francois, provided a nice jolt (for a Tuesday) when he was quoted in the Daily Reveille as stating that he wouldn’t mind hurting Florida’s quixotix QB, Tebow.  Here’s the article:  

The LSU defensive line’s opening shot at the 2007 Heisman winner could resemble “a car wreck without a seat belt,” LSU junior defensive tackle Ricky Jean-Francois told The Orlando Sentinel.SNL, for one, thinks this quote is great news and thanks the dallying Frenchmen who decided to insert himself (figuratively perverts) into the bloodline that ultimately spawned Jean-Francois. 

“If we get a good shot on [Tebow], we’re going to try our best to take him out of the game,” Jean-Francois said. “With his size and his heart, it’s hard to get a clean shot.”

Tebow can rely on Florida’s trainers to help him if the Tigers do injure him, Jean-Francois added.

“If he does get hurt, there’s a trained medical staff at Florida, so you can go to the training room on Sunday,” Jean-Francois said.

The 6-foot-3-inch, 289-pound defensive tackle said his sentiment was not out of the ordinary.

“I think every lineman wants to get a good hit on a Heisman Trophy winner,” he said.

 

Moving on…

LSU plays Florida, ‘Bama and Georgia over the next three weeks-brutal. 

LSU’s RB, Chuck “The Truck” Scott has rushed for over 100 yards in each game this season.  He’s a beast and LSU’s offensive line, which includes 6′7 389 lb. guard, Herman Johnson, should be problematic.  This is a game in which Spikes must show up big time as Florida will need double-digit tackles from the Mike position to have any success on defense.  SNL expects to see alot of man-coverage on 1st-down and remains guardedly optimistic that Haden, who is improving weekly, will be able to lock down one side of the field.  In obvious passing situations we can expect a fairly heavy dose of the zone blitz given the fron-4’s inability to wreak havoc on their own.  More about this later… 

For now, suffice it to say that the importance of this game will continue to grow as the week wears on and Gator backers can expect the E-SPIN heads and the national pundits to pile on the LSU bandwagon as kickoff nears.  Never doubt, however, that the talent, coaching, and chemistry necessary to slay the Tigers of the LSU variety is present on this Gator team and that which need be done, will be done.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Gators, LSU, Miles, SEC, Urban

  SNL has never been to Memphis.  There’s a reason for this-SNL knows people who have and they have uniformly advised that the trip was harrowing, to say the least.  That said, SNL, thanks to Memphis’ Final 4 run in hoops, was able to secure an image of a Memphis cheerleader which saved all of you from a picture of a sweaty Derrick Rose atop this post. 

In any event-Its Thursday night, a time for degenerates everywhere to embrace one another in one of those uncomfortable “man hugs” in anticipation of another week of college football.  So let’s get going….  

For most of you, USF v. Pitt and to a lesser extent, OSU v. Utah, will be the resting place for  your investment of your wife’s “rainy day” fund which, SNL knows,you intend to repay after you win back last week’s losses on tonight’s games.  SNL will offer some insight into these games, but must first chide you for failing to identify the most lucrative investment vehicle on the board tonight-the Memphis Tigers.

Memphis (-3/57o) at UAB:  For starters, you should know that Memphis averages right at 500 yards per game on offense, and throws and runs with equal aplomb.  In their 3 losses, the Tigers outgained Ole Miss Marshall and Rice respectively, but were undone by turnovers and red zone miscues.  The “scouting report for dummies,” therefore, is that Memphis is a very capable offensive club with an average (by Conference USA standards) defense. 

UAB, conversely, is a team that has lived up to its billing, which is not a good thing.  Sure, UAB can spread the field and throw the ball with some consistency and should be able to score against this Memphis D-but also fields one of the worst defenses in college football.  SNL therefore likes Memphis to cover this small number and, while your busy spending your child’s college fund, may as well hit the over too-plenty of passing and scoring in this one.  

Oregon St. (+11.5/53o) at Utah:    Oregon St., like the bartender you keep overtipping but won’t ask out, remains an enigma.  Go ahead, make your sophomoric joke about the fact that this team is confusing and has the “Beaver” as its mascot so we can move on.  What you should know is that irrespective of which hat the enigmatic Beavers wear, they are pretty consistent on offense.  The Beavers outgained the Cardinals by 200 yards in a loss, and mustered a respectable 350 yards on PSU. 

The Utes can also play and field a very good run defense.  However, the Utes have struggled with teams that can pass and surrendered 300+ yards to Weber St.  While the Utes will score enough to get the W, SNL’s gut says that OSU more closely resembles the team that beat the priapically obsessed Trojans than the one the lost to Joe Pa’ and therefore likes OSU to play within this generous number. 

For those of you who are determined to put some “action” on the USF game so you can chew the inside of your lip while you look over your girl’s shoulder at Chili’s tonight, que lastima.  SNL canot find an angle on this game worth stealing additional money from his wife’s E-Bay account.  Pittsburgh is schizophroenic, but remains very much the same team that was ranked in the top-20 to start the season and was a vogue pick to challenge for the Big East Crown.  Pitt has, however, lost to a Bowling Green club that it dominated statistically, and beat by 1 an Iowa club that dominated Pitt statistically.  Pitt also went down 14-3 to the ‘Cuse last week before pulling away in the second half.  So, do what you will with this one.  Seems like a generous number and there should be some offensive fireworks in this one too.  Still, no play for SNL.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

 

tertainment standpoint, tonight’s card is about as good as a mid-season Thursday tilt can get.  As the more astute among you have doubtless deduced, Derrick Rose of Memphis is pictured above.  Why?  Because there are no images of Memphis’ football team available on the web.

Tags: ATS, Degenerate Gamblers, PAC 1+9, Vegas

  FLORIDA VS. HAWAII  SNL recognizes that there exists somewhere a group of Gator fans who, whether by nature, nurture, or prescription drugs, are able to find the proverbial “silver lining” following a home loss to a 23-point underdog.  Each of us knows one these eternally (and frustratingly) optimistic types, always quoting the latest inspirational message from a book or seminar on “10 ways to influence people,” or “How to make friends for life in 5 minutes.” 

SNL, prone to philanthropy, writes this post in honor of this opiated group of Urban Kool-aid drinkers, who have likely gotten over Saturday’s loss and moved on while the rest have continued to openly lament the Gators’ woes.

The chart on the above right is Dr. Saturday’s “wasted yards” compilation.  The concept, ingenious in its simplicity, is essentially a way of parsing the statistics to determine which team “wasted” the most yards and to what effect.

As you can see, Florida outgained the Rebs by 100+ yards (take away 2 plays, and the number become 220 yards), and nearly tripled the Rebs in 1st Downs.  Florida, however, racked up 167 “wasted” yards to Ole Miss’ 15.  What this means is that Ole Miss’ offense was “feast or famine,” racking up 8 “3 and outs,” but scoring on almost every possession in which they gained a first down. 

Florda, conversely, while vastly more consistent, left points all over the field-a blown 4th down in Ole Miss territory in the 1st Quarter, settling for a field goal in the red zone, a fumble in Reb territory in the second, a punt from the Ole Miss 40 in the 4th, an extra missed point and the infamous 4th and 1 failure.  Not to mention the lost fumbles in the 3rd Quarter.

Sure, there are those among you that continue to believe that the Gator offense couldn’t be worse if Congress was calling the plays, and there is ample evidence to support your position.  However, Mr. “The SEC and National titles are still on the table,” and Mrs. “We lost in 2006 too, and look how that turned out,” can spin the nearly unparalleled ineptitude displayed in The Swamp last Saturday their way too.  Chiefly by pointing out that fumbling and blocked PAT’s are almost always cyclical and like hurricanes, tornados, and lightning, seldom strike the same place (or team) twice, at least to the extent we saw last week. 

 In other words, if even 1 of Florida’s miscues last week does no occur, Florida wins, albeit by a margin much smaller than the 23-point spread.  Now, before you go getting all giddy like a sugared up pre-adolescent, bear in mind that margin for error is significantly decreased against the LSU’s and Georgia’s of the world and therefore, a modest improvement will not stave off a 2nd or 3rd loss in the weeks to come-not with this defense.  For today anyway, this will have to do because, after all, the goals of the Gators, and their fans, are all  “still on the table.”

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Fans, Rebs, SEC, Urban

 Before last week’s game, Gainesville Sun Sports Editor and Columnist, Robbie Andreu, put pen to paper and inked the following:

The more I think about Urban Meyer’s no-risk approach on offense, the more brilliant it seems.

SNL is not in the business of impugning the intelect or foresight of those who chronicle the Gators, so this post is by no means meant to be an excoriation exercise at Andreu’s expense.  That said there were plenty of non-journalism degree holders who watched the Gators “play it close to the vest” for 3 games and weren’t nearly as convinced of Urban’s genius heading into the Ole Miss game as Andreu was.  In fact, there was vocal minority of Gator-backers who believed before last Saturday that there were clearly-defined cracks in the Gator facade.

While it is difficult to tell if the “vocal minority” has garnered the numbers necessary to become a majority, it is clear from national pundits (see SI’s Mandel), local airwaves, and state fishwraps that Urban Meyer is no longer beyond reproach. Nor should he be since he is the head coach at one of the nation’s premiere football programs and oh yeah, a multi-millionaire as a result. 

Unswayed by the logic of his collegue and presumed friend, Gainesville Sun Columinist, Pat Dooley writes in today’s paper:

I think the emphasis on having Tebow become a better pocket passer has backfired to a point. We saw it Saturday against Ole Miss when Tebow was sacked three times and that doesn’t include the pass he threw to [offensive lineman] Maurkice Pouncey under pressure or any of the others that went awry because he held the ball too long.

That’s not Timmy being Timmy.
[...]
I’d let Tebow be Tebow, let him pull it down and run when the play isn’t there. Get him out of the pocket to throw on the run more. Tell him it’s OK again to be the guy he was last season.

As blog-god Dr. Saturday points out, Tebow averaged 15 carries per game last season, which is (drumroll please), the exact number of carries Tebow had against the Rebs.  Tebow also had a banner day in the pocket, passing for 319 yards.  The real difference between 2007 Tebow and 2008 Tebow seems less about the carries, or his ability to “create” Rembrandt quality works of art when the play implodes, than it is about Florida’s ability to field an offensive line that is without injury and knows its assignments.  Two starters were injured and did not play (or played sparingly) in the second half last Saturday and not to be outdone, Florida’s D-line has quickly deteriorated from the platoon of young bucks capable of wreaking modest amounts of havoc using a heavy rotation, into an ad-hoc unit of comprised of those warm-bodied males that remain available after the most recent round of season-threatening injuries.

However the occurrences of last Saturday may have manifested themselves in the psyche of the Florida offensive machine, the most glaring problem is a holdover from last year’s campaign of mediocracy:  Defense.  Predictably, Meyer remained stoically countenanced following the Ole Miss game, and even went so far as to openly place the blame for the loss at the feet of the offense, which fumbled on consecutive plays and proferred to the Rebels 3 drives of 50 yards or less as a token of its appreciation. 

Football exists on a continuum and to be sure, the offense’s willigness to part with the ball played a key role in the Gators undoing. But this rigid interpretation of Saturday’s drama misses the mark by failing to account for the secondary’s colossal failure on 3rd and 7, which resulted in an 86-yard touchdown pass.  Even accounting for X’s, O’s, leverage and technique, it is nearly impossible to explain how Florida could be burned for an 86-yard touchdown pass on a 3rd and long.  Thus, even though Florida’s secondary has generally been improved this year, the spectre of the “big play,” which embodies the legacy of the 2007 Gator defense, seems likely to play an equally importnat role in the 2008 production.  In fact, Both of Ole Miss’ touchdown passes came on 3rd down, and another completion on 3rd and long led  to McCluster’s 40-yard jaunt to paydirt. 

In the end, it now appears that Urban’s newfound adherence to the currency minted by the Coaches of yore (ball control, field position, turnovers etc…) is unlikely to yield victories against quality opponents as long as Florida’s defense, which remains young, is vulnerable to game-altering plays against opponents backed up on their own 14-yard line.  Which is another way of saying Dooley has probably hit the mark by proposing that this offense find a way to recapture last year’s explosiveness because the recently unamske defense is likely to have some tough afternoons in the future. 

For this week anyway, Florida should be able harness its opponent into a chest-thumping return of the swagger it posessed following the UT victory.  The unpalatable reciprocal, of course, is that even a small measure of success by Arkansas QB, Dick, will likely trigger severe PTSD from Gator-backers who suffered through Saturday’s Shakespearean tragedy.  Heading into what should be Florida’s “Waterloo” the following week, this Saturday’s contest is all about instilling faith in themselves and their fans for the Gators, because they will need an abundance of both to have a chance against LSU.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

 

 

 

 

Tags: LSU, SEC, Urban

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