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Saturday’s Picks and a word on Boise St.

September 19, 2009 in ACC, ATS, BCS, Degenerate Gamblers, E-SPIN, Joe Pa', Layla Kiffin, Main Content, Pope Meyer | No comments

Boise St., in its last purported “test” of the season, wone a shootout over San Quentin…err….Fresno St. last night.  This was the second and ,presumably,  last opportunity for Boise to impress, and they failed.   As it stands, Boise will finish undefeated with a resume that will include a 19-8 win over an Oregon team that appears much worse than advertised (and should have lost to Purdue last week).

Make no mistake, Boise is good, capable of beating a handful of BCS heavyweights in a bowl game, provided the that the heavyweight in question is disinterested due to narrowly losing its conference Championship and thereby missing an opportunity to play in the BCSCG a la Alabama last year.

That said Boise is not a team that would be capable of winning the SEC, Big 12, Pac-10, and would struggle to win the ACC, particularly with a resurgent Miami to go with V. Tech.  Last night it was plain to see that there was an overall lack of power and speed, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, which in SNL’s opinion, makes Boise a de facto non-contender for the BCSG under any circumstance-with the possible exception of a host of 2-loss teams from the power conferences. 

Moving on…

Today, flock, is the day of the “dog,” and you heard it from SNL first. 

FSU @ BYU (-7.5):  This game calls for some imagery, so here goes:  FSU’s players arrive on campus hoping to one day “make it rain” with crazy NFL loot  a la such luminaries as Pac-Man Jones, Travis Henry, and Nelly.  BYU’s choir boys, conversely, arrive on Campus ready to serve a power higher than the NFL (we hope), and hope to one day earn enough money to support their large families because, you know, the whole birth control thing.  As far as football goes, FSU needs this win in the most horrible of ways, having been surpassed by Miami and nearly losing to Jacksonville St.  For BYU, beating FSU is like scoring a date with Goldie Hawn, you get the name recognition, but she’s just not that hot anymore.  In the end, however, a date with Goldie will still bolster your rep with the fellas.  BYU exploits the Noles young defense and covers easy.

Tennessee (+30) @ Florida.  SNL is a Gator fan, bleeds Orange and Blue and etc…  You should also know that the Gainesville Sun published an innocuous piec on Layla Kiffin, laying out Layla’s history as a UF grad, daughter of ex-UF QB, John Reeves, and most importantly, a former member of Zeta Tau Alpha Sorority, or the Zeta’s.  SNL spent some time in UF’s Greek System, the majority of which he doesn’t recall.  Suffice it to say that it’s more or less a bunch of rich kids fornicating and spending their parents money on booze, pills, road trips, with a (sanctimonious)semesterly charity function thrown in to throw the “rents” off the scent.  SNL has scooped a number of Zetas off the floor of local pubs over the years but by and large, they are a classy and hot bunch, so good for the Kiffins!

Oh yeah, back to the game.  UT has a good defense-probably the third best unit in the league, and a legendary coordinator to harness the talent.  SNL also explained in a previous post why the Vols and their suddenly beleaguered Coaches are backed into a corner.  In sum, the Vols D will slow down the Gators-a little-and cover this number.  For perspective, you should know that Joe “Grand” Pa’s Nittany Lions are a 30-point favorite over Temple.  Florida wins easy, but still doesn’t cover this number, 38-13 Gators. 

Toledo (+21) v. Ohio St.:  Regular readers know that SNL loves hangovers, when someone else has them; loves them even more when its the Buckeyes who are hungover.  Toledo, fresh off a beatdown of Colorado, rides their offense to a nice cover here.  You folks already playing with house money may want to moneyline this, after all, The Vest is still calling the plays.

Miss St. (+9.5) at Vandy:  Mullen has installed Florida’s offense with some success, at least in a relative sense.  And Vandy, is still Vandy, smart and undistracted by the hot co-eds at the other SEC institutions.  Bye the bye, Vandy also still believes the forward pass is what you do at a cocktail party.  Another salient point, Mullen’s boys know its Vandy too, and realisticall, the only league game they have a shot at.  MSU +9.

There’s your trifecta flock.  Enjoy. 

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ATS, BCS, Degenerate Gambler, Gators, Layla Kiffin, Noles, PAC 1+9, the Vest, Vols

SEC V. BIG 12 AND THE COCKTAIL PARTY’S IMPACT ON THE BCS

October 29, 2008 in ATS, BIG 10, Foolmer, Gators, Joe Pa', LSU, Main Content, SEC, Saban, UGA, Vols | No comments

I hate the gayyy-turd's more than Barrack Hussein Bin Laden!
I hate the gayyy-turds!

It  was only a matter of time before SNL was forced to add his sing-song voice to the choir of those consumed by the Big 12 v. SEC debate. 

Most know that the debate has been rigidly framed as “SEC defenses v. Big 12 offenses.”  This is conventional wisdom and few have bothered to look beyond this paradigm when comparing the 2 conferences.
 
Lacking the resources and time of the pundits, and unconstrained by convention, SNL takes a more global position on this issue.  
The lynch-pin of the conventional argument rests squarely on the shoulders of the quarterback, which is universally and correctly held to be the most important position in football at any level.  The overall performance of teams with upper-classmen at the QB position is oft-dissected and needn’t be replodded here.  Suffice it to say, however, that national championship caliber teams are led by seasoned QB’s more often than not.  It is important to note that the QB need not be the best player on the team or a superstar, but only experienced enough to avoid costly mistakes and make a “play or two” at crucial moments.  Leinart, Flynn, Leak, Bradford, White, Wuerrfel and so on…. 
Most punidts and statisticians take this paradigm a step further by factoring defense for obvious reasons.  To be sure, teams with a junior or senior QB and stifling defense seem to have the best recipe to win the BCS. 
Lacking pocket protectors, slide rulers, and oddles of leisure time to painstakingly review satistics from year’s past, SNL will rely on the old-fashioned “eyeball test” to divide the teams in each conference into 4 categories:  1) Elite; 2) Very Good; 3) average to good; 4) bad. 
Using this admittedly subjective system, even the most subjuective SEC homer will conclude that this year, the Big 12 trumps the SEC by the slightest of margins.  Here’s why:
The  SEC in 2008 has three “elite clubs”:   ‘Bama, Georgia, and Florida.  The Big 12 has 2 or 3 depending on your distillation process, but we can all agree on OU and UT.  However, in the very good category, the SEC has 1 at best (LSU), and even this is debatable and contingent largely LSU’s ability to win out, which is far from likely.  The Big 12, conversely, has at least 3 teams that are very good, TTech, Okie St., and Mizzou. 
For those of you who believe the SEC’s depth is the difference and look to the “average” category for support, there is a ray of hope in the form of the remaining schools in each conference.  South Carolina (5-3) and Ole Miss (the best 4-4 club in the country), are average to good, and likely better than the remainder of the Big 12 teams, of which only Kansas can be considered average to good.  So the SEC gains 1 back here.  The most ardent SEC supporter could attempt to add Vandy here, but this contention is summarily dismissed when considering that Vandy managed to lost to DUKE at home. 
In the aggregate, 6 of 12 Big 12 schools are elite or very good.  This is at least 2 (and arguably 3) more than the SEC can muster this year.  In the average to good category, the SEC can place 2 to the Big 12’s 1, which still leaves a significant gap between the 2 conferences.   
Naturally, a normal “SEC year” would find UT and Auburn hovering at or near the top-15 in both ranking and total defense, with South Carolina and at least 1 “write-in,” such as Ole Miss, UK, or Arkansas, in the top-25.  It is therefore not as much the strength of the second-tier Big 12 schools that carries the day  as it is the weakness of prennial power schools, UT and Auburn, that tilts this argument in favor of the Big 12 this year.  
Looking forward, its safe to say that the SEC and Big 12 will annually represent the best and deepest conferences in the Country by far.  SNL neither needs nor wants a bevy of statistics to support either conference’s superiority over time, because none it matters in 2008. 
It is foolish to believe that the winner of this Saturday’s WLOCP has more than a slugger’s chance to reach the BCS title game in the wake of PSU’s victory.  That said there are serious ramifications for the loser, who will be effectively barred from an at-large BCS bid and therefore relegated to…..dare I say…Orlando for a New Year’s Day game against you guessed it, the Buckeyes!! 
That the SEC and Big 12 will place 2 teams apiece in the BCS seems self-evident.  ‘Bama, even with a regular season loss and an SEC title game loss, is a shoe-in for one, same goes for the East winner (assuming no further regular season losses).  Saturday’s loser, therefore, will be “black-balled” by the BCS-you can bet on it. 
Forget UGA’s sophomoric stomp last year, if Florida needs any motivation they need look no further than last year’s miserable trip to Orlando.  SNL says this not just becaused of the result, but because the stadium, nearby facilities, and atmosphere of this game were horrible.  There’s not a restaurant or bar within miles of the stadium, which looks like a reconstituted Orange Bowl minus the flooding urinals. 
For the love of God Timmie, win this game!!!!
-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, BIG 10, Big 12, SEC, UGA

THE ALTERNATIVE TRUTH OF THE BCS OR, “IS THAT A BUCKEYE UP AHEAD?”

October 20, 2008 in ACC, ATS, BCS, BIG 10, Degenerate Gamblers, Gators, Joe Pa', LSU, Main Content, PAC 1 + 9, Pope Meyer, SEC, Saban, Saint Bobby, The Hat, UGA, Vols | No comments

The BCS is officially upon us and most, if not all CFB apologists, have long been innoculated from shock induced by the first official BCS poll, which has been shown to be anything but an edict once the final whistle blows.

That said this year’s inaugural BCS poll has illuminated a frightening possibility:  Ohio State back in the BCS Title Game.  Yep, the Buckeyes, emphatic losers on the biggest stage to Florida, LSU, and most recently, USC, are but one of several one-loss teams with a plausible shot at making it to Miami this January.

For fans of 10th-ranked Florida, OSU’s ranking gives rise to quite a conundrum.  First, Florida must hope that the Buckeyes prevail over Joe Pa’s Lions this week as the Lions remaining schedule is miserable.  This too, however, comes with a significant downside as an OSU win further bolsters USC’s standing.  USC, like PSU, has a miserable schedule and should coast to 11-1, and like OSU, is ranked ahead of Florida. 

This peculiar melding of time, space, and prose, could devolve into a scathing indictment of the Buckeyes, who have (somewhat unfairly) become the Buffalo Bills of our time.  This wooden interpretation, however, sails wide right of the real culprit, the BCS and the resultant confusion for football purists, such as SNL.

For example, Florida fans must now root for FSU (ranked 25th), Alabama, and Georgia to bolster its strength of schedule and, oh yeah, try and win each game as convincingly as possible-which means kicking a late field goal if necessary to go up by 23 points (sorry Coach Shannon, this is big boy football). 

This scenario comprises the Rubik’s Cube that is the BCS, at least  for the contenders and their fans.  Long gone are simpler times, when a loyal foot soldier of the Gators could in good-faith hope for the ‘Noles entire team to simultaneously combust or pray for Da’ U’s cranksters to be sentenced to 15 to life after being ensnared in a reverse cocaine sting in Coconut Grove. 

Nope, today’s CFB landscape is rife with fleeting liaisons in early September that, like one night stands with your undergraduate neighbor, are interminable, at least until you move on to next season (or into a new apartment).  Each week’s scores comprise layers upon layers of comparative data, used to feed software created by dorks and harnessed into computer polls that distill a finished product that seems strangely without any empirical worth whatsoever (see Ohio State ranked above USC as Exhibit “A”). 

Naturally,  those who are forced to endure a season’s worth of dashed hopes, missed chances, and crushed dreams can channel this clusterf*** into a positive.  For example, fans of UM and the Vols can exalt in the fact that their suckitude is at least partly responsible for Florida’s lowly ranking.  Ditto for the entire PAC-10 excluding the Men of Troy. 

Irrespective, the sum of the BCS parts is to be villified for what it isn’t-an objective system that produces a champion by way of a playoff system.  Nonetheless, proponents for the current system remain (though many are in hiding from November through January).  Most vapidly tote the “its better than nothing” party line-the hell it is.  SNL, for one, would rather return to the days of conference bowl affiliations and split titles than allow this charade to continue unfettered.  Naturally, if Florida wins out and defeats an undefeated ‘Bama and by doing so reserves aspot opposite UT, OK, or USC in Miami, SNL will take it all back. 

ERSTWHILE……

The delicate balance between good and evil has been restored, albeit temporarily, as ‘Bama’s behemoth defensive tackle, Mount Cody, is expected to miss 2-4 weeks with an MCL sprain.  Naturally, this can be explained as simply “football,” or alternatively, a karmic event brought on by Darth Saban’s incessant pursuit of world domination.  Either way, The Hat is probably feeling a little better about now.

Mizzou and Texas Tech are much worse than advertised, SNL expects both to be ranked no higher than 20th when the dust settles and won’t be surprised if one or both are unranked at some point.

Boomer Sooner Defense has surrendered damn near 1,000 yards in its last 2 games.  SNL is well aware that the QB play in the Big 12 is superb this year, but remains resistant to the notion that the Big 12 offenses are so good that Oklahoma-whose coach made his way to the $4 million per year money train coaching defense-can’t hold the Jayhawks to under 491 yards.  South Florida held the Jayhawks to 60 less yards than the bevy of blue chippers in Norman, fyi. 

Finally, how good is Texas?  Damn good.  How’s that for genius insight? 

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ACC, BCS, Big 12, Darth Saban, PAC 10, SEC

SATURDAY’S EARLY GAMES: BIG 12 DEFENSELESS, UGA HITTING ITS STRIDE, AND WISCONSIN IN FREEFALL

October 18, 2008 in ACC, ATS, BCS, BIG 10, Joe Pa', LSU, SEC, UGA | No comments

Its early, but the Georgia Bulldogs, up 14-0 on Vandy right now, seem to have regained their early season form.  Vandy will likely show some frantic energy in the face of Georgia’s methodical disemboweling of its defense, but the WLOCP is shaping up to be the showdown envisioned before the season began.

Elsewhere…..Texas Tech remains well behind its contemporaries on the defensive side of the ball and is losing to 2-4 A&M by 3 at the half…Memphis is beating ECU 10-7 prompting a long overdue “I told you so” from SNL…bold prediction:  the run the Big 12 has been getting for its TV friendly score-a-thons will slowly yield a perception that this conference plays below average defense…Clemson has already benched Willie Korn, to no avail…Wisconsin is doing its best to undermine the credibility of Penn St. by losing to Iowa…

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ACC, BCS, Big 12, SEC

SATURDAY’S CARD: 4 GAMES OVER .500 AND 1 STEP AHEAD OF THE VIG

October 17, 2008 in ACC, ATS, BIG 10, Degenerate Gamblers, Foolmer, Joe Pa', Main Content, PAC 1 + 9, SEC, UGA, Vols | No comments

 

Show me a guy who’s afraid to look bad, and I’ll show you a guy you can beat every time.


  Thought you all would enjoy seeing who the now infamous “Joe the Plumber” roots for.  Like many of his mid-western peers, Joe, when he’s not cheering on the Buckeyes, is busy not paying his taxes and disliking all individuals who differ him.  To his credit, Joe’s disdain for fellow Americans is evenly disseminated along lines of politics, color, creed, ethnicity, religion and sporting affiliations. 

Fortunately, SNL is an epicurean and belongs to the “Joe Bottle of Cabernet” demographic and couldn’t care less.

About last night…1-1 ATS, winning with the FSU under and losing the BYU over.  Quickly…FSU appears to have lost a ton of talent from their 1990’s renaissance, especially at linebacker, DE, and WR…BYUfails the “eyeball test” in a colossal way.  SNL hasn’t seen a more pathetic group of noodle-armed, soup-bowl chested Latter Day Saints since last year’s BYU squad…gheesh.

The money pitch:

DISCLAIMER:  SNL, after being saved last week by going “all in” on Arkansas, will continue to post picks in order of perceived strength.  SNL knows that the “Sharp’s he apprenticed under,” like Vinnie “Hands” Randazzo, will mock the notion of rating picks and can already hear Vincenzo’s grating guinea-lecture, which will go something like:

“What are ya’? A f***in’ idiot? It’s either a pick or it ain’t you f***in’ moron.  Now get the f*** outta’ hea before you piss me off.”

Vincenzo’s admonitions, worthy (and frightening)  though they may be, are insufficient to derail SNL’s belief in this “weighted system.”  Enjoy.

Arkansas (+7.5) v. UK:  At some undetermined moment, some undetermined pundit is going to tell the unknown guy next to him “Arkansas has really improved.”  Don’t look at SNL, there’s no one else home right now.  That said SNL rode Petrino’s boys like a rented mule last week, and with UK’s problems (including but not limited to the loss of all-everything WR, Mr. Lyons), will do so again. 

Arkansas managed 420 balanced yards against a very good defensive unit last week.  Sure, Auburn is in disarray, quitting on their coaches, lamenting ‘Bama’s ascendancy, and likely to lose again soon.  But Arkansas is getting better by the week-they can pass, they can run, and they can cover this spread.  Might even be money-line material now that you mention it.

Miss St. (+7.5) v. UT:  For whatever reason, UT always reminds SNL of Dean Wormser’s great line in Animal House, when he tells Belushi “fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life son.”  No rhyme, reason, or cogent nexis for this, it just is.

Croom’s Bulldogs outgained Vandy last week nearly 2.5 yards to 1.  Before you go getting all “crunk” on SNL, you should now that MSU had only 247 total yards.  Still, this game is less about x’s, o’s, or coaches, than it is about 1 team with no expectations playing hard for its coach, and another team with high expectations which has thrown in the towel.  In fact, this game closely resembles the dynamic of the Arkie-Aub game last week, and we know how that turned out. 

Croom’s Bulldogs make it official, Fulmer is done.

Vandy at UGA (-14.5):  Like the poor kid with a lisp who goes to summer camp and inexplicably dates the hottie daughter of a neurosurgeon, Vandy lived a charmed life for about 5 weeks. Last in total offense, last in total defense, and still the “bell of the ball.”  Unfortunately, the Hahhvahd of the South is returning to its roots, which, when distilled to its core, means a return to a good school with a crummy football team that ranks last in total offense and total defense in the SEC.

Georgia, conversely, is an okay school with a good football team.  The Dawgs dominated UT last week but won by only 12 thanks to penalties and untimely turnovers while the paisley-panted Commodores put up 107 total yards on Miss St.  Must SNL drone on about how easy this game is?

Ohio St. (-4) at Mich. St.:  This game has more layers of goodness than Jennifer Aniston dressed for the winter.  A Sparty win exposes SC’s earlier win over OSU for what it is (not much) and ergo ispo facto will make OSU’s win over Joe Pa’s Lions next week all the more damaging.

Like their namesake, the Spartans have morphed into a land-force par excellence, capable of running and throwing with equal alacrity and, since Joe the Plumber hasn’t a clue what this means, the Buckeyes should be ripe for the picking. 

Here’s proof positive:

Memphis (+9) at ECU:  Why does it seem like only yesterday that Skip Holtz and not Will Muschamp was the hottest name in coaching?  Because it was.  SNL is proud to say that he never bought into the hype, primarily because he knew that: a) West Virginia was horrible; b) V. Tech was slightly better than West Virginia; and c) Skip Holtz is blood-kin of Lou Holtz (for you to ponder).

In the week’s since, ECU has lost to NCSU, Virginia and Houston.  A fairly precipitous demise by any objective measure and Memphis can score, and score, and score….take the points, you won’t regret it. 

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ACC, Degenerate Gamblers, Fulmer, SEC

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