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Like the Gators themselves, SNL doesn’t want to play the game today, but hopes to peak as the week goes on, and crescendo on Saturday at or near 3:30 p.m. 

If the local fish-wrap and airwaves are fair indicators, and they usually are, SNL stands alone in his reluctance to begin hyping the UF-UGA rematch.  SNL’s reticence notwithstanding, it seems only fair to offer a pearl or two before substantive analysis begins later in the week.

First, Georgia is the higher ranked team in the only poll that counts, the BCS.  Second, Vegas, stoic in the face of the pollsters and computer dorks who promulgate the BCS, has installed UF as a 5.5-point favorite.  Third, the UGA faithful, lamenting the injuries, arrests, and ass-kicking by the Tide only weeks ago, have been reconstituted by UGA’s thrashing of LSU last Saturday and the web is today rife with comments from prose-challenged UGA fans predicting Gator doom. 

For those Gators inclined to escalate the matter by responding to the poorly articulated web-banter of the Dawg-backers, SNL would recommend a hot shower and a cognac, its going to be a long week.  

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Pope Meyer, UGA, WLOCP

“Act like a man of thought – Think like a man of action.” -

  Not much left to say about UF v. UK.  The mood surrounding the stadium remains unchanged, the fans are essentially making “an appearance” at The Swamp and making plans to meet at one of the nearby watering holes at halftime. 

Crying baby and absent wife, so here’s a brief synopsis of Saturday’s investment opportunities:

Wake at Da’ U (+3/41o):  Wake rebounds here-Skinner has nice day and this game goes over the number-easy, peezy, japaneezy.  Shannon kicks late field goal for 27-21 win and thanks Urban Meyer afterward.  Like da’ Canes and Da’ over.

T. Tech v. Kansas (pk/67o):   Welcome to the Big 12, where the teams score on each other like drunken greeks on spring break.  Over, over, over.

Okie St. at UT (-13/670o):  If UT wins another blowout, they should be placed in the NFL by plebiscite.  Okie and points-I’m a man!!!

Arkansas (+6/56o) v. Ole Miss:  Nitt’s wild ride continues…Hawg’s cover the number, Nutt wins a close one, and Florida’s SOS is minutely improved. 

Georgia v. LSU (-1/51o):  Posed on this game earlier.  Brief recapitulation:  Georgia struggles to run and pass, LSU struggles to run and pass, see Gerogia and LSU struggle to run and pass.  Final score 23-20, Dawgs or Tigers win-take the under.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ATS, Degenerate Gamblers, SEC

“Fear is the true opiate of combat.”

 

SNL, like everyone, has heard it over and over.  “We respect (team we should dominate), and we’re not looking ahead to (our biggest rival).  We are taking this season 1 game at a time.”  

Naturally, the need to utter this bland and overused quote, or some facsimile thereof, is because it is 100% false.  Right now, every Gator fan, player, and Coach is eager to dispense of UK so they can officially do what they have been unofficially doing since last year, planning revenge on Georgia. 

Nationally, the interest in UF-UGA game will depend largely on the reult of Georgia’s game this Saturday in Baton Rouge.  Locally, this game will be anticipated, talked about, dissected, downloaded, uploaded, condensed, DVR’d, and YouTubed more than Brittany Spears’ nipple “incident,” irrespective of the outcome in Baton Rouge.

For Gators, it is inarguable that the visceral need to beat the Dawgs in humbling fashion will remain unchanged irrespective of Saturday’s outcome.  This fact flows inevitably from last year’s loss, which emphatically ended an era of Gator dominance. 

Like all Gators, SNL’s lamentations could be heard for miles following UGA’s defeat of Florida last year.  As the days passed, however, SNL came to see the good, which is that this rivalry, which has experienced periods of hegemonic dominance much like the Visigoths and Romans,  had been given new life.  For this, SNL offers to the Dawgs a humble thanks.  Moving on…

UGA’s game against LSU is difficult to get a read on.  For its part, Georgia has been a study in incongruency this year.  Knowshon, Stafford and the unbelievable freshman wideout, Green, have put up great numbers by and large, and yet Georgia seems on a weekly basis to allow its opponents to hover in some sort of purgatory, never out of the game, but never really in the game either. 

Certainly, the well-chronicled offensive line problems, as well as the evident overzealousness of the Athens PD, have played a significant part in UGA’s inability to dominate its SEC foes to date.  To his credit, Richt has nonetheless kept the Dawgs in the winner’s column for the most part, and may well do so again this Saturday.

On the other side of the ball, SNL can’t help but feel that LSU’s undressing at The Swamp has disproportionately damaged its national reputation.  That LSU was able to win at South Carolina has apparently done little to change this, despite the fact that the Cocks have an excellent defense and were playing well coming into that game.  Though ot evident from an empirical standpoint, especially given LSU’s schedule to date, SNL has a feeling that the Tigers of the Louisiana genus are probably better than given credit for. 

For Gators, the result of the LSU-UGA game may not carry the impact originally foreseen.  For example, if LSU wins at home, Florida’s resouding victory over LSU is commensurately bolstered.  If UGA wins, the WLOCP takes on heightened importance nationally, which is also good for Florida (assuming, of course, that Florida can win). 

Teasing the fact pattern further out, however, illustrates that an UGA victory is the best result for Florida for 2 reasons:  1) As before, it heightens the importance of the WLOCP, which will likely strengthen Florida’s SOS and place more voting eyes on Jax next week; and 2) An UGA win places LSU 2-games back of ‘Bama, which means that ‘Bama’s rear-naked-choke on the West is strengthened.  This in turn means that Florida is unlikely to rematch an angry and much improved LSU team in Atlanta, which is a good thing (ask FSU how that went in the 1996 Sugar Bowl). 

So, hunker down you hairy ‘Dawgs!  See you next week.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

 

 

The

Tags: LSU, Saban, SEC, The Hat, UGA

“I have a high art, I hurt with cruelty those who would damage me.”

-Saturday Nite  Lights, 2006 A.D.

 Not a ton of news today-Gville remains peculiarly quite on the eve of homecoming, but SNL suspects things will be picking up soon.  In any event, there remains a strong belief that Florida will route UK, both in Gville and Vegas, where the oddsmakers have installed Florida as 24.5-point favorites.

Speaking of things amoral, vacuous, and otherwise irredeemable, SNL’s investment recommendations last week faired only slightly better than the investment houses that bet heavily on subprime mortgages.  Not to worry, SNL will simply ask the feds to bail him out, its the American Way!

With an ATS record of .500, SNL has been dubbed “Even Stephen” by the grinning local Vig.  The reason for the grinning, naturally, is because .500 means “juice” in Vegas parlance, or 10% to the unemployed eye-talian SNL “invests” with.  Like the executives at Lehman, SNL plans on resurfacing this week at an investment firm near you with renewed (but unsubstantiated) belief that he will soon be shopping for Rolexes courtesy of Vegas….

Early Leans….

Auburn v. WVU (-3):  Auburn, recently defrocked by the voters, visits one of the four “redneck cradles of civilization” for a Thursday night game.  Auburn’s defense is still solid and irrational though it may be, the SEC “don’t take kindly to strangers.”  Ask Obama, who was pulled over in MS for a broken taillight.  Leaning towards a spirited Auburn group here.

Boston College at UNC (-3):  Starting to believe that BC is Top-25 material.  Good defense, decent QB, and student fan base every bit as drunk and stupid as your regular student fan base, with one-third less attractive girls.  UNC injuries should help.

Texas Tech (+2) at Kansas:  There must be millions of clever ways to dispel the fatuous notion that TT is a top-10 team.  SNL can’t think of any, so an ass-kicking by Kansas will have to do. 

Okie State v. UT (-13):  Doesn’t the law of averages mandate that someone cover the spread against UT?  Why not Okie State, they are, after all, coached by a man, who is over 40.  In waht must be characterized as the very embodiment of “gambling,” leaning towards the Cowboys. 

Georgia v. LSU:  This game is more notable for the quandary it presents Gator backers with than anything else.  Georgia win sends Gameday to Jax and likely gets the Gators attention.  An LSU win helps SOS but likely makes Georgia a sizeable underdog next week.  That said Georgia pisses SNL off.  Knowshon, Stafford, and Green are all elite players, but Georgia can’t put anyone away and LSU is still a bellicose group-especially after being emasculated in Gainesville.  SNL likes the short number here for the Tigers.

Colorado (+21.5) at Mizzou:  Lotta points for a dispirited group collecting the pieces of their shattered ambitions.  Hmmm…..

Elsewhere…

The BCS computers like the SEC…SNL, much to the chagrin of his scientist father, will not bore you with the crushingly oppressive  mathematics, but the suffice it to say that the computers have the SEC ranked lightly ahead of the Big 12 at this point.  Here’s the “BCS Computers for Dummies” version…

The “z-score” is a composite of the 6  computers used to rank the conferences as a whole.  The computers exist inedependent of one another and use largely the same criteria albeit with different weights assigned to certain variables. 

The average of these 6 z-scores is:

SEC: 1.138
Big 12: 1.127
ACC: 0.804
Big 10: 0.776

Big East: 0.328
PAC 10: 0.277
MWC: 0.122

WAC: -0.605

MAC: -1.127
C-USA: -1.235
Sun Belt: -1.605

One would think that even the most rudimentary of computers would have the MWC above the PAC-10 by virtue of the fact that the MWC is 5-0 v. the PAC-10.  Just be happy SEC is where it should be, #1.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ACC, ATS, Big 12, PAC 1+9, SEC

 It is common sense to take a method and try it. If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something.

-FDR

  SNL, catering to the lowest common intellectual denominator, will go ahead and tell you that the image above is an obtuse metaphor for the David v. Goliath matchup that, according to local news outlets and radio shows, is taking place at The Swamp on Saturday.  For the remaining 1% of you, who know nothing of David, Goliath, tanks, or children, SNL offers a sincere look of pity.  Moving on…

The Gator lovefest continues in the wake of Florida’s 55-21 victory over then 3rd-ranked LSU.  Edified by LSU’s victory of South Carolina last Saturday and further imbued with confidence thanks to the incessant cries of Gator supremacy on the local airwaves, Gator fans are fat and happy about now. Reservations in Atlanta and for the most wistful, Miami, are being made daily as the Gator resurgence grows in stature.

Sure, there’s a rankled minority who are incensed that the BCS and its new fangled computers have placed Florida on the fringe of the top-10 (looking up at the Buckeyes), but the silent majority remain corpulent, complacent, and for the time being, are recommending no changes to the Gators coaching staff, play-calling, game-planning, uniforms, facilities, schedule, or logo.  A great relief for Pope Meyer to be sure.

Coming to Gainesville this Sautrday to bask in this contemporary utopia is purported lamb, Kentucky.  Yep, woeful, incompetent, bumbling, undersized and undermanned Kentucky, with its cute little 5-2 record and adorable last second win against Arkansas last week.  The same club that held #2 ‘Bama to 17 points and minus 2 huge plays, around 150 yards rushing. 

Predicted final scores from the flock are somewhere between 52-10 Florida and 41-14 (also Florida) and take SNL back to days of old, when the Gator faithful arrived, like Romans at the Coliseum, for a slaughter of innocents.  Problem is, the “days of old” were only a couple of weeks ago-you remember, when Ole Miss came to The Swamp a 23-point underdog and walked away the victor.

Admittedly, Kentucky lacks any real firepower in its dilapidated state and does not seem to be the “Buster Douglas” that Ole Miss was (and is).  It is the simplicity of this statement that makes the Wildcats dangerous.  Put another way, Kentucky’s apparent lack of playmakers coupled with Florida’s 2-week bath in the post-LSU love bubbles gives rise to a scenario that is difficult for the Gators-the overdog. 

To date, the Gators have shown that they are equally capable of dominating great teams and losing to average teams, but have provided their doubters with no real reason to believe that they are capable of a prolonged campaign of greatness.  Like it or not, in the weeks that follow the inaugural BCS poll, which paradoxically means nothing and everything at this point, there exists an added an element of urgency that wasn’t present when Ole Miss came to Gainesville only a few weeks ago. 

The Gators now know where they stand, which is below Ohio State and USC.  This truth further amplifies the need for the Gators to be sharp, dominant, and overwhelming this weekend against a team that, like Arkansas and Ole Miss, is better than the fans, pundits, and pollsters think.

The reason for this is simple, MOV does not factor into the BCS algorithm, but rankings do.  Florida can expect to move as high as #5 in the Coaches poll if it wins Saturday, but could go as high as #3 if it wins impressively and others lose or win in underwhelming fashion against lesser opponents. 

The distilled sum of the BCS whole rests with Florida’s rise in the polls over the next month, which in turn depends largely on a chorus of high profile pundits extolling Florida’s greatness from their Bristol perch.   The pollsters, like trained seals, will eat from the trough of the E-SPIN highlight buffet and vote the party-line.  If the talking heads parrot Florida as the best 1-loss team at the close of the season, the Gators get to go to Miami. Simple, tidy, and true.

Feel the pressure Gators?  SNL sure hopes so because we’re all counting on you.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, Gators, Pope Urban, SEC, UK

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