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WHILE I WAS OUT……SATURDAY’S CARD AND OTHER ANECDOTAL MUSINGS

November 20, 2008 in ACC, ATS, BCS, Foolmer, Gators, LSU, Main Content, PAC 1 + 9, SEC, Saban, Vols | No comments

SNL’s apologies for the length of time between posts.  For the record, you can chalk it up to the usual litany of grown-man issues:  attention starved (but hot) wife; attention starved (but adorable) 1 yr-old son; and attention starved cases requiring maintenance in the form of mediations, motions, demands and the like.  Oh yeah, as evidenced below, SNL has also been forced to endure the South Beach diet, with admittedly stunning results, as you can see.

Naturally, SNL remains receptive to employment overtures from any mainstream media outlet.  Hell, he’d even goose step amongst the E-SPIN propagandists for a pittance…

There have been a number of inquiries since my last post-well, 10 to be exact.  Most were flattering calls for a speedy return from adoring readers.  The other 7 were typical ‘Bama fan vitriole calling for SNL’s death, threatening his family, and attacking his sexuality based on nothing more than his allegiance to his alma mater and unfettered hatred for the state of Alabama, its corpulent populace, 3-legged dogs, litter, love of fried shit, cigarettes and Code Red Mountain Dew, and most of all, its football team.

Interesting to note that the calls and e-mails from SNL’s Gator constituency continue to center around ‘Bama which means that, predictably, the Gators have discarded the viability of a ‘Nole (or Citadel) upset next week.  Go figure.
 

THE PICKS…

3-2 last week which means the wisby (This is a nickname SNL’s wife made for herself.  It is typically accompanied by a “husby,” which is SNL.  Embarrassing, but true.) is unlikely to receive her diamond earrings from Santa-husby.  But also means SNL does not owen Vincenzo any scratch and not in danger of losing a limb.

UW (-7.5) at Wazzou:  “This is a rivalry game…you can throw the records out the window…blah, blah, blah.”  These teams are a combined 1-20.  The gamewill not be televised nor would anyone watch if it were.  However, the winner of this game will be unofficially crowned the “second worst BCS team in 2009.”  This, friends, is a distinction worth fighting for!  Washington has been competitive of late, leading ‘zona in the 3rd quarter, and wants to send off Willingham in style.  Wazzou is lifeless, like a passed out tri-delt at homecoming.  Huskies roll!!!

Illinois v. Northwestern (+2.5):  Wrong team favored.  SNL wathced Zookers clubs quit on him for years and knows the recipe well.  Last week’s loss to the Buckeyes ensured that the Zookers will lie down this Saturday like the doormat bombshell that keeps letting you come over at 2:00 a.m. to say “hi.”  What’s her number again?

UT at Vandy (-3.5):  The Commies exact their revenge for years for years of futility by beating the poopie out of Foolmer’s despondent group.  For UT, the season mercifully ends-which is the only thing anyone dressed in that godawful neon orange cares about.  Vandy, conversely, is taking their geniusness bowling! Viva la revelucion’!

Ole Miss (+7) at LSU:  If this needs explaining, SNL cannot help you.  Ole Miss may well win this game outright.  For those playing with house money, throw some on the moneyline.  Nutt’s boys are headed to 8-4 and a top-25 ranking before its all said and done.

T.Tech (+7) v. Oklahoma:  This one is dicey, but a touchdown seems awful generous.  On the other hand, Tech hasn’t played anyone worth a damn outside of Lubbock, which makes Columbus (Ohio) look like gay Paris’ by the way.

Tags: ACC, ATS, Picks, SEC, The Hat

SATURDAY’S PICKS: BACK IN THE GAME

November 14, 2008 in ACC, BCS, E-SPIN, Gators, Main Content, PAC 1 + 9, PAC 10, SEC | 1 comment

3-2 last week, pushing the overall ATS record to 10 games over .500.  Not good enough to guarantee the wife a pair of those f***ing diamond earring that keep “popping up” in her f***ing Madamoiselle and Vogue mags, but good enough to keep vig off my tuckas.
First last night’s highlight reel-don’t worry its onle a few secs in duration.  The remainder of the game was about like watching unattractive drunk chicks fistfight at Mango’s-which is a metaphor for abject offensive futility without the potential for hot girls topless. 

 
The trouble with this week is that its quiet.  No viable upsets on the horizon and no marquee games betwwen ranked opponents.  Come to think of it, this whole weekend is likely to be like watching drunk chicks fight.  Even so, SNL never met a CFB board that didn’t present opportunities to make a return on equity, even though he has and does often miss the “opportunities.”  Moving on…
Wake Forest v. NCSU (+3.5/42):  Riley Skinner, Wake’s Senior QB, is more or less competent, and at times, even skilled in the passing game.  NCSU, has become a balanced club and continues to improve, beating Duke on the road last week after narrowly losing to Maryland and Florida State during the preceding 2 weeks.  SNL likes the evenly matched clubs here to score more than 42 points, but not much more.  Warning:  This game, like every ACC game, would be better if viewed via time-lapse videography. 
Vandy at Kentucky (-4):  Kentucky reminds me of a neighborhood kid that SNL often beat upon, we’ll call him Chip.   Chip was irritating.  Chip was loud.  Chip was stupid.  Chip was also the eighth kid-which meant we needed Chip for 4 on 4 basketball and football games-so we couldn’t get rid of him.  Chip also was tenacious-so tenacious, in fact, that you often tired of beating him before he gave up, and he would get in a blow or 2 toward the end. 
Vandy is like a girl that lived next door to SNL during his elementary days, we’ll call her Mary.  Mary couldn’t throw.  Mary couldn’t run. 
Since Chip could have whipped Mary, Kentucky will whip Vandy.  Brilliant!! Give the points.
Texas (-13/67o) at Kansas:  Poor Texas. The Horns hooked their way past the Sooners but seem to be the odd man out in the silly-strong Big 12 South irrespective of the outcome of the T/’OU game next week.  This probably pisses Texas off-alot.  Mangina (this is a pun on the word angina perverts) will stroke- out after the ‘Horns hang 50+ on the Jayhawks.  Take UT and the Over-it will be delicious.
Cal v. Oregon St. (-3):  Still waiting for the dream matchup of the Beavers and ‘Cocks in a bowl game, but SNL digresses.  SNL hates USC.  Why is this relevant?  Because the Beavers kicked the crap out of the Trojans and Cal just got manhandled.  So the Beavers did SNL a solid wherease the so-called Golden Bears just threw a log on the “USC-is-the-best-team-at-the-end-of-the-year” fire. 
USC continues to greedily stockpile blue-chippers, but remains the 6th best team in CFB-on a good day.  The Beavers do me another solid and thump Cal as repayment for their weakness and to further lowes SC’s SOS.  Beavers score early and often!
-So Sayeth the Shepherd 

Tags: ACC, PAC 1+9, SEC, USC

FLORIDA: THE NEW USC?

November 4, 2008 in ACC, BCS, BIG 10, E-SPIN, Gators, LSU, Main Content, Notre Dame, PAC 1 + 9, Pope Meyer, SEC, Saban, TV SCHEDULE, The Hat, UGA, scUM | No comments

  How great is this?

The Gator-Nation is obviously bored, its primary league rivals have been vanquished in shocking fashion and (as predicted by SNL) the national media has begun hyping Florida as the “best 1-loss team in the Country.” 

Looking toward Saturday’s contest against Vandy (who lost to Duke) provides little excitement for a fan base crashing from the endorphin-laced crushing of UGA.  Sure, the Gators will rally somewhat when the Cocks and the OBC roll into town, and put their game faces on when they go on the road to face the ‘Noles, but today, the Gators are spent.

The local airwaves continue to be rife with BCS permutations that place Florida in the BCS title game, which under normal circumstances would have SNL worrying incessantly about Florida looking past this week’s opponent, but that’s not going to happen when, as stated above, this week’s opponenent managed only 7 points in its recent loss at home to Duke. 

SNL has therefore opted to avail itself of the wistful winds that are blowing through Gator Country this week and somehow wound up wondering what if?  What if Urban wins his second BCS title in 4 years?  What if Tebow returns next year?  What if Florida is preseason #1 next year?  What about the year after that?

This line of thinking inevitably segued into a debate with a colleague and Notre Dame homer, who maintains that Florida remains a “regional team,” with little appeal nationally and a fairly limited sphere of longitudinal relevance. 

After some back and forth, I undermined this argument to my satisfaction, but feel that further explanation is warranted to preemptively combat this situation before it beomes a full blown pandemic. 

First, the so-called “national teams,”  which traditionally include USC, Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio State, and to a lesser extent, Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, and Penn State, earned this distinction primarily in the 60’s and 70’s.  Naturally, this group benefitted greatly from large fan bases which, coupled with television and lack of paradoy, gave them greater exposure than many southern schools, including Florida.  In the 70’s it was not uncommon for a fan living in the south to see Notre Dame on television 4 times in a season, but see Florida, Georgia, or LSU only once or twice. 

That said CFB has since morphed into a multi-billion dollar business, and college football games are televised 5 days per week and available on every major and cable network all day Saturday.  An indisputable corrolary to this is that recruiting is also a multi-million dollar business that takes place on a national scale, at least for the major programs.  What this translates into is choices for those fans who enter the CFB world as ”undecided voters.” 

The conclusion, which is likely to invite the ire of traditionalists like Beano Cook, is that the resume necessary to be considered a “national team” is drastically different than it was 35 years ago.  Sure, winning and losing remain constants, but rivalries and conference strength, which translate into more and higher profile photo ops for the best of the best, are equally important.  National titles are also important, but not as important as consistently receiving an invite to a BCS bowl. 

Whatever the criterium, the notion that only those teams who were considered “national powers” in 1975 are somehow legacies that remain the only members of this “national” fraternity is fatuous at best.  Today, there exists a fluidity to college football that was not present 30 years ago.  The vast amount of television exposure is such that the new CFB paradigm contemplates ascension to and descension from the so-called “national teams” based on a 5-year span of dominance or incompetence. 

Tennessee, which won the BCS in 1998,  is a prime example of this.  So are USC and Oklahoma, who re-entered the national consciousness after falling from grace in the 90’s.  Da’ U, who is all but entirely irrelevant after dominating the 90’s, is another example. 

For its part, Florida sits on the cusp of an SEC title, which would be its 8th since 1991, a possible NC, which would be its second in 4 years and 3rd in 11 years, and oh yeah, is poised to enter the preseason next year as one of the top-2 teams.  By any standards, this resume makes Florida a “national team.”  And, should Florida win the SEC, BCS, and enter next year as pre-season #1, it should and will be argued that Florida has become what USC was a few short years ago, the most dominant program in college football.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, BIG 10, PAC 1+9, Pope Urban, SEC

MID-WEEK MUSINGS AND EARLY LOOKS AT CFB INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES

October 22, 2008 in ACC, BCS, BIG 10, LSU, Main Content, PAC 1 + 9, SEC, The Hat, UGA | No comments

“I have a high art, I hurt with cruelty those who would damage me.” –

-Saturday Nite  Lights, 2006 A.D.

 Not a ton of news today-Gville remains peculiarly quite on the eve of homecoming, but SNL suspects things will be picking up soon.  In any event, there remains a strong belief that Florida will route UK, both in Gville and Vegas, where the oddsmakers have installed Florida as 24.5-point favorites.

Speaking of things amoral, vacuous, and otherwise irredeemable, SNL’s investment recommendations last week faired only slightly better than the investment houses that bet heavily on subprime mortgages.  Not to worry, SNL will simply ask the feds to bail him out, its the American Way!

With an ATS record of .500, SNL has been dubbed “Even Stephen” by the grinning local Vig.  The reason for the grinning, naturally, is because .500 means “juice” in Vegas parlance, or 10% to the unemployed eye-talian SNL “invests” with.  Like the executives at Lehman, SNL plans on resurfacing this week at an investment firm near you with renewed (but unsubstantiated) belief that he will soon be shopping for Rolexes courtesy of Vegas….

Early Leans….

Auburn v. WVU (-3):  Auburn, recently defrocked by the voters, visits one of the four “redneck cradles of civilization” for a Thursday night game.  Auburn’s defense is still solid and irrational though it may be, the SEC “don’t take kindly to strangers.”  Ask Obama, who was pulled over in MS for a broken taillight.  Leaning towards a spirited Auburn group here.

Boston College at UNC (-3):  Starting to believe that BC is Top-25 material.  Good defense, decent QB, and student fan base every bit as drunk and stupid as your regular student fan base, with one-third less attractive girls.  UNC injuries should help.

Texas Tech (+2) at Kansas:  There must be millions of clever ways to dispel the fatuous notion that TT is a top-10 team.  SNL can’t think of any, so an ass-kicking by Kansas will have to do. 

Okie State v. UT (-13):  Doesn’t the law of averages mandate that someone cover the spread against UT?  Why not Okie State, they are, after all, coached by a man, who is over 40.  In waht must be characterized as the very embodiment of “gambling,” leaning towards the Cowboys. 

Georgia v. LSU:  This game is more notable for the quandary it presents Gator backers with than anything else.  Georgia win sends Gameday to Jax and likely gets the Gators attention.  An LSU win helps SOS but likely makes Georgia a sizeable underdog next week.  That said Georgia pisses SNL off.  Knowshon, Stafford, and Green are all elite players, but Georgia can’t put anyone away and LSU is still a bellicose group-especially after being emasculated in Gainesville.  SNL likes the short number here for the Tigers.

Colorado (+21.5) at Mizzou:  Lotta points for a dispirited group collecting the pieces of their shattered ambitions.  Hmmm…..

Elsewhere…

The BCS computers like the SEC…SNL, much to the chagrin of his scientist father, will not bore you with the crushingly oppressive  mathematics, but the suffice it to say that the computers have the SEC ranked lightly ahead of the Big 12 at this point.  Here’s the “BCS Computers for Dummies” version…

The “z-score” is a composite of the 6  computers used to rank the conferences as a whole.  The computers exist inedependent of one another and use largely the same criteria albeit with different weights assigned to certain variables. 

The average of these 6 z-scores is:

SEC: 1.138
Big 12: 1.127
ACC: 0.804
Big 10: 0.776

Big East: 0.328
PAC 10: 0.277
MWC: 0.122

WAC: -0.605

MAC: -1.127
C-USA: -1.235
Sun Belt: -1.605

One would think that even the most rudimentary of computers would have the MWC above the PAC-10 by virtue of the fact that the MWC is 5-0 v. the PAC-10.  Just be happy SEC is where it should be, #1.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ACC, ATS, Big 12, PAC 1+9, SEC

THE ALTERNATIVE TRUTH OF THE BCS OR, “IS THAT A BUCKEYE UP AHEAD?”

October 20, 2008 in ACC, ATS, BCS, BIG 10, Degenerate Gamblers, Gators, Joe Pa', LSU, Main Content, PAC 1 + 9, Pope Meyer, SEC, Saban, Saint Bobby, The Hat, UGA, Vols | No comments

The BCS is officially upon us and most, if not all CFB apologists, have long been innoculated from shock induced by the first official BCS poll, which has been shown to be anything but an edict once the final whistle blows.

That said this year’s inaugural BCS poll has illuminated a frightening possibility:  Ohio State back in the BCS Title Game.  Yep, the Buckeyes, emphatic losers on the biggest stage to Florida, LSU, and most recently, USC, are but one of several one-loss teams with a plausible shot at making it to Miami this January.

For fans of 10th-ranked Florida, OSU’s ranking gives rise to quite a conundrum.  First, Florida must hope that the Buckeyes prevail over Joe Pa’s Lions this week as the Lions remaining schedule is miserable.  This too, however, comes with a significant downside as an OSU win further bolsters USC’s standing.  USC, like PSU, has a miserable schedule and should coast to 11-1, and like OSU, is ranked ahead of Florida. 

This peculiar melding of time, space, and prose, could devolve into a scathing indictment of the Buckeyes, who have (somewhat unfairly) become the Buffalo Bills of our time.  This wooden interpretation, however, sails wide right of the real culprit, the BCS and the resultant confusion for football purists, such as SNL.

For example, Florida fans must now root for FSU (ranked 25th), Alabama, and Georgia to bolster its strength of schedule and, oh yeah, try and win each game as convincingly as possible-which means kicking a late field goal if necessary to go up by 23 points (sorry Coach Shannon, this is big boy football). 

This scenario comprises the Rubik’s Cube that is the BCS, at least  for the contenders and their fans.  Long gone are simpler times, when a loyal foot soldier of the Gators could in good-faith hope for the ‘Noles entire team to simultaneously combust or pray for Da’ U’s cranksters to be sentenced to 15 to life after being ensnared in a reverse cocaine sting in Coconut Grove. 

Nope, today’s CFB landscape is rife with fleeting liaisons in early September that, like one night stands with your undergraduate neighbor, are interminable, at least until you move on to next season (or into a new apartment).  Each week’s scores comprise layers upon layers of comparative data, used to feed software created by dorks and harnessed into computer polls that distill a finished product that seems strangely without any empirical worth whatsoever (see Ohio State ranked above USC as Exhibit “A”). 

Naturally,  those who are forced to endure a season’s worth of dashed hopes, missed chances, and crushed dreams can channel this clusterf*** into a positive.  For example, fans of UM and the Vols can exalt in the fact that their suckitude is at least partly responsible for Florida’s lowly ranking.  Ditto for the entire PAC-10 excluding the Men of Troy. 

Irrespective, the sum of the BCS parts is to be villified for what it isn’t-an objective system that produces a champion by way of a playoff system.  Nonetheless, proponents for the current system remain (though many are in hiding from November through January).  Most vapidly tote the “its better than nothing” party line-the hell it is.  SNL, for one, would rather return to the days of conference bowl affiliations and split titles than allow this charade to continue unfettered.  Naturally, if Florida wins out and defeats an undefeated ‘Bama and by doing so reserves aspot opposite UT, OK, or USC in Miami, SNL will take it all back. 

ERSTWHILE……

The delicate balance between good and evil has been restored, albeit temporarily, as ‘Bama’s behemoth defensive tackle, Mount Cody, is expected to miss 2-4 weeks with an MCL sprain.  Naturally, this can be explained as simply “football,” or alternatively, a karmic event brought on by Darth Saban’s incessant pursuit of world domination.  Either way, The Hat is probably feeling a little better about now.

Mizzou and Texas Tech are much worse than advertised, SNL expects both to be ranked no higher than 20th when the dust settles and won’t be surprised if one or both are unranked at some point.

Boomer Sooner Defense has surrendered damn near 1,000 yards in its last 2 games.  SNL is well aware that the QB play in the Big 12 is superb this year, but remains resistant to the notion that the Big 12 offenses are so good that Oklahoma-whose coach made his way to the $4 million per year money train coaching defense-can’t hold the Jayhawks to under 491 yards.  South Florida held the Jayhawks to 60 less yards than the bevy of blue chippers in Norman, fyi. 

Finally, how good is Texas?  Damn good.  How’s that for genius insight? 

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ACC, BCS, Big 12, Darth Saban, PAC 10, SEC

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