PAC 1 + 9

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Show me a guy who’s afraid to look bad, and I’ll show you a guy you can beat every time.


  Thought you all would enjoy seeing who the now infamous “Joe the Plumber” roots for.  Like many of his mid-western peers, Joe, when he’s not cheering on the Buckeyes, is busy not paying his taxes and disliking all individuals who differ him.  To his credit, Joe’s disdain for fellow Americans is evenly disseminated along lines of politics, color, creed, ethnicity, religion and sporting affiliations. 

Fortunately, SNL is an epicurean and belongs to the “Joe Bottle of Cabernet” demographic and couldn’t care less.

About last night…1-1 ATS, winning with the FSU under and losing the BYU over.  Quickly…FSU appears to have lost a ton of talent from their 1990’s renaissance, especially at linebacker, DE, and WR…BYUfails the “eyeball test” in a colossal way.  SNL hasn’t seen a more pathetic group of noodle-armed, soup-bowl chested Latter Day Saints since last year’s BYU squad…gheesh.

The money pitch:

DISCLAIMER:  SNL, after being saved last week by going “all in” on Arkansas, will continue to post picks in order of perceived strength.  SNL knows that the “Sharp’s he apprenticed under,” like Vinnie “Hands” Randazzo, will mock the notion of rating picks and can already hear Vincenzo’s grating guinea-lecture, which will go something like:

“What are ya’? A f***in’ idiot? It’s either a pick or it ain’t you f***in’ moron.  Now get the f*** outta’ hea before you piss me off.”

Vincenzo’s admonitions, worthy (and frightening)  though they may be, are insufficient to derail SNL’s belief in this “weighted system.”  Enjoy.

Arkansas (+7.5) v. UK:  At some undetermined moment, some undetermined pundit is going to tell the unknown guy next to him “Arkansas has really improved.”  Don’t look at SNL, there’s no one else home right now.  That said SNL rode Petrino’s boys like a rented mule last week, and with UK’s problems (including but not limited to the loss of all-everything WR, Mr. Lyons), will do so again. 

Arkansas managed 420 balanced yards against a very good defensive unit last week.  Sure, Auburn is in disarray, quitting on their coaches, lamenting ‘Bama’s ascendancy, and likely to lose again soon.  But Arkansas is getting better by the week-they can pass, they can run, and they can cover this spread.  Might even be money-line material now that you mention it.

Miss St. (+7.5) v. UT:  For whatever reason, UT always reminds SNL of Dean Wormser’s great line in Animal House, when he tells Belushi “fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life son.”  No rhyme, reason, or cogent nexis for this, it just is.

Croom’s Bulldogs outgained Vandy last week nearly 2.5 yards to 1.  Before you go getting all “crunk” on SNL, you should now that MSU had only 247 total yards.  Still, this game is less about x’s, o’s, or coaches, than it is about 1 team with no expectations playing hard for its coach, and another team with high expectations which has thrown in the towel.  In fact, this game closely resembles the dynamic of the Arkie-Aub game last week, and we know how that turned out. 

Croom’s Bulldogs make it official, Fulmer is done.

Vandy at UGA (-14.5):  Like the poor kid with a lisp who goes to summer camp and inexplicably dates the hottie daughter of a neurosurgeon, Vandy lived a charmed life for about 5 weeks. Last in total offense, last in total defense, and still the “bell of the ball.”  Unfortunately, the Hahhvahd of the South is returning to its roots, which, when distilled to its core, means a return to a good school with a crummy football team that ranks last in total offense and total defense in the SEC.

Georgia, conversely, is an okay school with a good football team.  The Dawgs dominated UT last week but won by only 12 thanks to penalties and untimely turnovers while the paisley-panted Commodores put up 107 total yards on Miss St.  Must SNL drone on about how easy this game is?

Ohio St. (-4) at Mich. St.:  This game has more layers of goodness than Jennifer Aniston dressed for the winter.  A Sparty win exposes SC’s earlier win over OSU for what it is (not much) and ergo ispo facto will make OSU’s win over Joe Pa’s Lions next week all the more damaging.

Like their namesake, the Spartans have morphed into a land-force par excellence, capable of running and throwing with equal alacrity and, since Joe the Plumber hasn’t a clue what this means, the Buckeyes should be ripe for the picking. 

Here’s proof positive:

Memphis (+9) at ECU:  Why does it seem like only yesterday that Skip Holtz and not Will Muschamp was the hottest name in coaching?  Because it was.  SNL is proud to say that he never bought into the hype, primarily because he knew that: a) West Virginia was horrible; b) V. Tech was slightly better than West Virginia; and c) Skip Holtz is blood-kin of Lou Holtz (for you to ponder).

In the week’s since, ECU has lost to NCSU, Virginia and Houston.  A fairly precipitous demise by any objective measure and Memphis can score, and score, and score….take the points, you won’t regret it. 

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ACC, Degenerate Gamblers, Fulmer, SEC

 Gators back in the driver s seat after trouncing LSU  The outpouring of love for the Florida Gators in the wake of Saturday’s blowout win would undoubtedly be unprecedented were it not for the 12 month orgy that saw a 2006 BCS title sandwiched between 2 basketball chamionships.  Irrespective, the about face by Florida fans-who have become about as faithful as that girl who tells you how “special” you are when she invites you to her house at 2:00 a.m. after 30 minutes of drunken banter-is hilarious when considering that only a week ago calls for Mullen’s head were common, and some went so far as to question Pope Meyer.

Today, Gainesville is the land of “milk and honey,” where strangers stop to help one another with flat tires and assist the elderly across the street.  A quick peek into the camp of the Gator’s vanquished foe reveals that the panic, anxiety, and overall lunacy that infected Gator fans only a week ago, has found a home in Baton Rouge where, less than a year after LSU’s BCS title, the message boards are rife with seditious fans urging Les Miles’ firing.  So, Mr. Jean-Francois gets his car wreck after albeit a little closer to home than anticipated. 

The volatility and histrionics of the SEC fan bases notwithstanding, the only lesson to be taken from Saturday’s results (and this applies from Austin to Gainesville to Athens without exception) is that the 2008 season is upon us.  And, in the SEC and Big 12, which are far and away the strongest and deepest conferences in the land, the weekly fratricide will continue leaving in its wake the chaos, angst, and occasionally, elation that makes CFB the greatest sport on earth. 

SNL would be remiss for failing agree that on a number of levels, the buoyed spirits of the Gator nation appear to be soundly based for a number of reasons.  First, the Gators scored huge with “style points” Saturday.  For those who continue to deride the need to win impressively, SNL recommends a gander at this week’s polls, which now have Florida ahead of Georgia, undefeated BYU, who both won Saturday.   Like it or not, as long as subjectivity remains a core value in the BCS distillation process, big wins in high profile games are worth their weight in gold (see ‘Bama’s victory of UGA as Exhibit “A.”). 

Second, Florida, having lost once, has suffered through the “dark period” that inevitably occurs when a title contender is upset.  SNL concedes that a loss is never a good thing, but for this Gator team, the taste of defeat should remain fresh enough to prevent a second lapse to the “decent” teams as the season wears on (looking at you UK, USC, Vandy and FSU), each of which could, but should not, beat Florida.

Finally, Saturday’s resounding victory has rightfully been characterized as Florida’s renaissance-a game in which Florida found an identity which consists of Tebow distributing the ball to wildly talented speedsters, an increasingly stingy defense, and imposing special teams.  To most partisan observers, Florida’s performance Saturday was like watching the launch of the Space Shuttle after several failed attempts.  The resulting fireworks have given rise to a belief by many, including E-SPIN’s Cowherd, that Florida is one of the top-5 teams in the country. 

Unlike 2 weeks ago, there now exists ample evidence to gauge the 2008 contenders, and it is reasonable to place the Gators in the quintet of BCS-title hopefuls-for now.   Of the 1-loss contenders, USC and Oklahoma rank ahead of Florida today. 

Most pundits agree that the feebleness of the  PAC-1+9 is such that USC lacks the autonomy to make it to the BCS-title game absent more losses by the other elite.  Oklahoma, whose defense again failed to show up for a big-time game, appears poised to win out, as does Florida.  Texas has a tough road and PSU could lose to the Buckeyes.  Which makes viable a scenario whereby a bevy of 1-loss clubs must be distiguished.  If this occurs, Florida’s big-time win last Saturday will be instrumental in building the Gators’ resume.   

Still, the only certainty, for Gators, Lions, Tide, Trojans, Sooners, and Horns is that getting there will be more than half the fun.  It always is.   

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, SEC, Titletown, Urban

The following stats and pics come from Dr. Saturday’s recent post.  While SNL has not independently confirmed the content, you can bank on its accuracy considering the source.

UConn outgained North Carolina by 115 yards and ten first downs and lost by 26 points.

Missouri converted seven of nine first downs, scored on each of its first seven possessions and went 60 yards before going out on downs on its eighth and final drive in a 52-17 win over Nebraska. After punting once against Nevada and once against Buffalo, the Tigers did not punt at all against the Huskers.

With six points against Penn State, Purdue has averaged eight points in its last seven games against Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin, most of them with the game out of reach in the fourth quarter.

Minnesota held Indiana to seven points on 293 yards, the Gophers’ best defensive game in either category since beating depression-era Penn State in 2004. That would have been a good quarter for the Gopher defense in 2007.

Georgia Tech completed nine passes for 230 yards in its 27-0 win over Duke, all of them to Demaryius Thomas. Duke’s 132 total yards was the Devils’ lowest output since September 2005.

Florida State gained 440 yards, scored 41 points, turned the ball over five times, gave up 36 points in the second half and didn’t punt in its 41-39 win over Miami.

Boston College easily doubled up N.C. State in total yards, 578 to 253, but only scored the winning touchdown with 22 seconds on the clock.

Oklahoma State and Texas A&M were nearly dead-even in total yards, but four touchdowns apart on the scoreboard thanks to three non-offensive touchdowns by the Cowboys in the first half.

Kansas gained 87 yards and scored zero points in the first half, before gaining 354 yards and scoring 35 points in the second half of its 35-33 win over Iowa State.

As predicted, Jimmy Clausen had his first 300-yard passing game, with three touchdowns and no interceptions in Notre Dame’s win over Stanford. And for Chris Marinelli: the Irish sacked Tavita Pritchard five times.

Air Force outgained Navy by 167 yards, and lost, 33-27, thanks to two blocked punts returned for touchdown.

TCU outrushed San Diego State by 396 yards, 383 to -13, in a 41-7 Horned Frogs win. SDSU held the ball for just 16:31 and totaled 85 yards total offense.

Ball State ran for 240 yards and passed for 242 in a 31-0 win over Toledo.

Southern Miss running back Damion Fletcher ran for a national-high 260 yards on 7.6 per carry in USM’s double-overtime loss to (gag me) UTEP.

Next up:  Early Look:  LSU v. Florida

Tags: News and notes

SNL chronicled earlier the dearth (that means “lack”) of TV worthy games this week. Despite being poorly suited for the moving picture box, this week’s card represents yet another opportunity for those who worship at the Vegas altar to move a little closer to the stripper pole they want to install in the living room. This is what people want-right?

SNL, being of unimpeachable breeding, naturally aspires to greater heights, which is thinly veiled subterfuge for the fact that his women (okay, woman) will be demanding cash for antique housewares, romantic-comedy DVD’s, clothes, jewelry and other assorted items coveted by the finer gender-and men of questionable orientation-on Sunday.

With SNL’s digression (and a gratuitous pic) aside, we can now begin our regularly scheduled program…

USC at Ole Miss (-2):  This is the type of game that the ancient, grizzled man at the low end Vegas sportsbook, you know, the one with the god-awful stench of bargain brand cigarettes and a face with the look and feel of hand-tooled leather,  tells you is a classic “letdown.”  The broken-down degenerate then proceeds to pick up discarded tickets (the Vegas equivalent of checking payphones for quarters) and gives you, yes you, high-rolling up and coming yuppie, a look of disdain as you lay $110.00 on the slight home favorite.

Hubris, friends, is a dish best served “all day every day.”  Which is why the degenerate mean-mugging you for going with the far-better team is sifting through the trash and you’re laying a cool C-note on the game while you wait for your honey to come in from the mall across the street.

All you need to know is that Ole Miss is good and getting better-fairly explosive on offense and a great front 4.  South Carolina, conversely, is getting worse, and SNL has it on good authority that Spurrier has “lost” this team-hard to believe a 60-year old white dude who plays scratch golf lacks the “street cred” to motivate a team that boasts the “Cock” as its mascot, but there you have it.  Plus, SNL loves the Grove for the following reason:

hot-football-chicks.jpg

Ole Miss covers the low number-fuhhget about it…..

Maryland (-14) at Virginia:  SNL loves Maryland due to the divergence of focus between the media, who bore us all to tears with their “Maryland plays down to the level of competition” mantra, and the bloggers, who focus more on the number of chins Friedgen has on any given week.  Fortunately, this game is not one which requires a great deeal of analysis on either topic.  Why?  Because SNL has been touting UVA’s incompetence since the season began, he picked them to get crushed by Duke (which they did), Uconn (ditto) and the Trojans (ditto).  Maryland couldn’t play “down” to UVA’s level if they fielded a team of randomly picked frat-boys.  Maryland covers-easy, peasy, Japanezy.

****Auburn at Vandy (+4/o38):  This game, which airs at 6 on the deuce, should be about as exciting as last night’s debate between the hot stupid chick and the erudite (but boring) white dude with thinning hair.  That said, Auburn remains terrible on offense and Vandy remains…well…lucky.  Passing for about 65 yards a game and winning?  SNL predicts the following headline: “Auburn wins, 3-2!”  Take the under (38).

Other girls worth meeting at the club but not asking out on a formal date:

UCF -14 over SMU

Duke +13.5 at GTU

T.Tech -7.5 at K. State

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Degenerate Gamblers, SEC

  SNL has never been to Memphis.  There’s a reason for this-SNL knows people who have and they have uniformly advised that the trip was harrowing, to say the least.  That said, SNL, thanks to Memphis’ Final 4 run in hoops, was able to secure an image of a Memphis cheerleader which saved all of you from a picture of a sweaty Derrick Rose atop this post. 

In any event-Its Thursday night, a time for degenerates everywhere to embrace one another in one of those uncomfortable “man hugs” in anticipation of another week of college football.  So let’s get going….  

For most of you, USF v. Pitt and to a lesser extent, OSU v. Utah, will be the resting place for  your investment of your wife’s “rainy day” fund which, SNL knows,you intend to repay after you win back last week’s losses on tonight’s games.  SNL will offer some insight into these games, but must first chide you for failing to identify the most lucrative investment vehicle on the board tonight-the Memphis Tigers.

Memphis (-3/57o) at UAB:  For starters, you should know that Memphis averages right at 500 yards per game on offense, and throws and runs with equal aplomb.  In their 3 losses, the Tigers outgained Ole Miss Marshall and Rice respectively, but were undone by turnovers and red zone miscues.  The “scouting report for dummies,” therefore, is that Memphis is a very capable offensive club with an average (by Conference USA standards) defense. 

UAB, conversely, is a team that has lived up to its billing, which is not a good thing.  Sure, UAB can spread the field and throw the ball with some consistency and should be able to score against this Memphis D-but also fields one of the worst defenses in college football.  SNL therefore likes Memphis to cover this small number and, while your busy spending your child’s college fund, may as well hit the over too-plenty of passing and scoring in this one.  

Oregon St. (+11.5/53o) at Utah:    Oregon St., like the bartender you keep overtipping but won’t ask out, remains an enigma.  Go ahead, make your sophomoric joke about the fact that this team is confusing and has the “Beaver” as its mascot so we can move on.  What you should know is that irrespective of which hat the enigmatic Beavers wear, they are pretty consistent on offense.  The Beavers outgained the Cardinals by 200 yards in a loss, and mustered a respectable 350 yards on PSU. 

The Utes can also play and field a very good run defense.  However, the Utes have struggled with teams that can pass and surrendered 300+ yards to Weber St.  While the Utes will score enough to get the W, SNL’s gut says that OSU more closely resembles the team that beat the priapically obsessed Trojans than the one the lost to Joe Pa’ and therefore likes OSU to play within this generous number. 

For those of you who are determined to put some “action” on the USF game so you can chew the inside of your lip while you look over your girl’s shoulder at Chili’s tonight, que lastima.  SNL canot find an angle on this game worth stealing additional money from his wife’s E-Bay account.  Pittsburgh is schizophroenic, but remains very much the same team that was ranked in the top-20 to start the season and was a vogue pick to challenge for the Big East Crown.  Pitt has, however, lost to a Bowling Green club that it dominated statistically, and beat by 1 an Iowa club that dominated Pitt statistically.  Pitt also went down 14-3 to the ‘Cuse last week before pulling away in the second half.  So, do what you will with this one.  Seems like a generous number and there should be some offensive fireworks in this one too.  Still, no play for SNL.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

 

tertainment standpoint, tonight’s card is about as good as a mid-season Thursday tilt can get.  As the more astute among you have doubtless deduced, Derrick Rose of Memphis is pictured above.  Why?  Because there are no images of Memphis’ football team available on the web.

Tags: ATS, Degenerate Gamblers, PAC 1+9, Vegas

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