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FLORIDA V. UGA: A RANT BEFORE THE PICK

October 30, 2008 in ATS, BCS, Gators, Main Content, Pope Meyer, SEC, Saban, UGA | No comments

SNL, courtesy of his snot-nosed 11-month old, has spent the better part of this week with a fever and various symptoms associated with the common cold.  On the upside, this has provided ample time to ruminate, reminisce, and otherwise painstakingly contemplate the whole of the Florida-Georgia rivalry.  First and only conclusion to date:  SNL hates Georgia.  Period.

 No, SNL’s hatred is not born of UGA’s lack of sophistry, love of hillbilly colloquialisms, or misplaced belief that Georgia is not the redneck capital of the universe.  (Sure its not, outside of the ATL is there even a city in that godforsaken state?)  Nor is it because Georgians flock to Florida in droves each summer to vacation but hypocritically maintain that Florida is reviling wasteland come football season.  Nor is it because many Georgians believe a female capable of simple math is a “witch” and hold Saddam Hussein personally responsible for 9-11.  Nor is it because Georgia is personified by the err…..”gentlemen” below, who has molded into some curious symbiosis the obnoxiousness of “silver-pantsed” UGA regalia with the KKK’s standard getup. 

  The foregoing are all loathsome facts, worthy of engendering hate of the deepest and most impenetrable sort.  Nonetheless, SNL’s hate is visceral, transcendant,  and incapable of being rigidly cornered by those who would rely such trivialities to support their position.  SNL’s hate of Georgia is quite simply the purest form of emotion known to man-utter, abject, total, and unquenchable despise of all that is adjacent to, abuts, nears, approximates, or is in any way directly or indirectly related to the GD Georgia Bulldogs.  In the words of the quintessential angry wife:  “It is what it is.”

Be back soon with the analysis and prediction….

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Gators, Meyer, SEC, UGA

SEC V. BIG 12 AND THE COCKTAIL PARTY’S IMPACT ON THE BCS

October 29, 2008 in ATS, BIG 10, Foolmer, Gators, Joe Pa', LSU, Main Content, SEC, Saban, UGA, Vols | No comments

I hate the gayyy-turd's more than Barrack Hussein Bin Laden!
I hate the gayyy-turds!

It  was only a matter of time before SNL was forced to add his sing-song voice to the choir of those consumed by the Big 12 v. SEC debate. 

Most know that the debate has been rigidly framed as “SEC defenses v. Big 12 offenses.”  This is conventional wisdom and few have bothered to look beyond this paradigm when comparing the 2 conferences.
 
Lacking the resources and time of the pundits, and unconstrained by convention, SNL takes a more global position on this issue.  
The lynch-pin of the conventional argument rests squarely on the shoulders of the quarterback, which is universally and correctly held to be the most important position in football at any level.  The overall performance of teams with upper-classmen at the QB position is oft-dissected and needn’t be replodded here.  Suffice it to say, however, that national championship caliber teams are led by seasoned QB’s more often than not.  It is important to note that the QB need not be the best player on the team or a superstar, but only experienced enough to avoid costly mistakes and make a “play or two” at crucial moments.  Leinart, Flynn, Leak, Bradford, White, Wuerrfel and so on…. 
Most punidts and statisticians take this paradigm a step further by factoring defense for obvious reasons.  To be sure, teams with a junior or senior QB and stifling defense seem to have the best recipe to win the BCS. 
Lacking pocket protectors, slide rulers, and oddles of leisure time to painstakingly review satistics from year’s past, SNL will rely on the old-fashioned “eyeball test” to divide the teams in each conference into 4 categories:  1) Elite; 2) Very Good; 3) average to good; 4) bad. 
Using this admittedly subjective system, even the most subjuective SEC homer will conclude that this year, the Big 12 trumps the SEC by the slightest of margins.  Here’s why:
The  SEC in 2008 has three “elite clubs”:   ‘Bama, Georgia, and Florida.  The Big 12 has 2 or 3 depending on your distillation process, but we can all agree on OU and UT.  However, in the very good category, the SEC has 1 at best (LSU), and even this is debatable and contingent largely LSU’s ability to win out, which is far from likely.  The Big 12, conversely, has at least 3 teams that are very good, TTech, Okie St., and Mizzou. 
For those of you who believe the SEC’s depth is the difference and look to the “average” category for support, there is a ray of hope in the form of the remaining schools in each conference.  South Carolina (5-3) and Ole Miss (the best 4-4 club in the country), are average to good, and likely better than the remainder of the Big 12 teams, of which only Kansas can be considered average to good.  So the SEC gains 1 back here.  The most ardent SEC supporter could attempt to add Vandy here, but this contention is summarily dismissed when considering that Vandy managed to lost to DUKE at home. 
In the aggregate, 6 of 12 Big 12 schools are elite or very good.  This is at least 2 (and arguably 3) more than the SEC can muster this year.  In the average to good category, the SEC can place 2 to the Big 12’s 1, which still leaves a significant gap between the 2 conferences.   
Naturally, a normal “SEC year” would find UT and Auburn hovering at or near the top-15 in both ranking and total defense, with South Carolina and at least 1 “write-in,” such as Ole Miss, UK, or Arkansas, in the top-25.  It is therefore not as much the strength of the second-tier Big 12 schools that carries the day  as it is the weakness of prennial power schools, UT and Auburn, that tilts this argument in favor of the Big 12 this year.  
Looking forward, its safe to say that the SEC and Big 12 will annually represent the best and deepest conferences in the Country by far.  SNL neither needs nor wants a bevy of statistics to support either conference’s superiority over time, because none it matters in 2008. 
It is foolish to believe that the winner of this Saturday’s WLOCP has more than a slugger’s chance to reach the BCS title game in the wake of PSU’s victory.  That said there are serious ramifications for the loser, who will be effectively barred from an at-large BCS bid and therefore relegated to…..dare I say…Orlando for a New Year’s Day game against you guessed it, the Buckeyes!! 
That the SEC and Big 12 will place 2 teams apiece in the BCS seems self-evident.  ‘Bama, even with a regular season loss and an SEC title game loss, is a shoe-in for one, same goes for the East winner (assuming no further regular season losses).  Saturday’s loser, therefore, will be “black-balled” by the BCS-you can bet on it. 
Forget UGA’s sophomoric stomp last year, if Florida needs any motivation they need look no further than last year’s miserable trip to Orlando.  SNL says this not just becaused of the result, but because the stadium, nearby facilities, and atmosphere of this game were horrible.  There’s not a restaurant or bar within miles of the stadium, which looks like a reconstituted Orange Bowl minus the flooding urinals. 
For the love of God Timmie, win this game!!!!
-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, BIG 10, Big 12, SEC, UGA

UF v. UK: THE BCS AND THE PRESSURE OF NO PRESSURE

October 21, 2008 in ATS, BCS, Gators, LSU, Main Content, SEC, Saban | No comments

 It is common sense to take a method and try it. If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something.

-FDR

  SNL, catering to the lowest common intellectual denominator, will go ahead and tell you that the image above is an obtuse metaphor for the David v. Goliath matchup that, according to local news outlets and radio shows, is taking place at The Swamp on Saturday.  For the remaining 1% of you, who know nothing of David, Goliath, tanks, or children, SNL offers a sincere look of pity.  Moving on…

The Gator lovefest continues in the wake of Florida’s 55-21 victory over then 3rd-ranked LSU.  Edified by LSU’s victory of South Carolina last Saturday and further imbued with confidence thanks to the incessant cries of Gator supremacy on the local airwaves, Gator fans are fat and happy about now. Reservations in Atlanta and for the most wistful, Miami, are being made daily as the Gator resurgence grows in stature.

Sure, there’s a rankled minority who are incensed that the BCS and its new fangled computers have placed Florida on the fringe of the top-10 (looking up at the Buckeyes), but the silent majority remain corpulent, complacent, and for the time being, are recommending no changes to the Gators coaching staff, play-calling, game-planning, uniforms, facilities, schedule, or logo.  A great relief for Pope Meyer to be sure.

Coming to Gainesville this Sautrday to bask in this contemporary utopia is purported lamb, Kentucky.  Yep, woeful, incompetent, bumbling, undersized and undermanned Kentucky, with its cute little 5-2 record and adorable last second win against Arkansas last week.  The same club that held #2 ‘Bama to 17 points and minus 2 huge plays, around 150 yards rushing. 

Predicted final scores from the flock are somewhere between 52-10 Florida and 41-14 (also Florida) and take SNL back to days of old, when the Gator faithful arrived, like Romans at the Coliseum, for a slaughter of innocents.  Problem is, the “days of old” were only a couple of weeks ago-you remember, when Ole Miss came to The Swamp a 23-point underdog and walked away the victor.

Admittedly, Kentucky lacks any real firepower in its dilapidated state and does not seem to be the “Buster Douglas” that Ole Miss was (and is).  It is the simplicity of this statement that makes the Wildcats dangerous.  Put another way, Kentucky’s apparent lack of playmakers coupled with Florida’s 2-week bath in the post-LSU love bubbles gives rise to a scenario that is difficult for the Gators-the overdog. 

To date, the Gators have shown that they are equally capable of dominating great teams and losing to average teams, but have provided their doubters with no real reason to believe that they are capable of a prolonged campaign of greatness.  Like it or not, in the weeks that follow the inaugural BCS poll, which paradoxically means nothing and everything at this point, there exists an added an element of urgency that wasn’t present when Ole Miss came to Gainesville only a few weeks ago. 

The Gators now know where they stand, which is below Ohio State and USC.  This truth further amplifies the need for the Gators to be sharp, dominant, and overwhelming this weekend against a team that, like Arkansas and Ole Miss, is better than the fans, pundits, and pollsters think.

The reason for this is simple, MOV does not factor into the BCS algorithm, but rankings do.  Florida can expect to move as high as #5 in the Coaches poll if it wins Saturday, but could go as high as #3 if it wins impressively and others lose or win in underwhelming fashion against lesser opponents. 

The distilled sum of the BCS whole rests with Florida’s rise in the polls over the next month, which in turn depends largely on a chorus of high profile pundits extolling Florida’s greatness from their Bristol perch.   The pollsters, like trained seals, will eat from the trough of the E-SPIN highlight buffet and vote the party-line.  If the talking heads parrot Florida as the best 1-loss team at the close of the season, the Gators get to go to Miami. Simple, tidy, and true.

Feel the pressure Gators?  SNL sure hopes so because we’re all counting on you.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, Gators, Pope Urban, SEC, UK

THE ALTERNATIVE TRUTH OF THE BCS OR, “IS THAT A BUCKEYE UP AHEAD?”

October 20, 2008 in ACC, ATS, BCS, BIG 10, Degenerate Gamblers, Gators, Joe Pa', LSU, Main Content, PAC 1 + 9, Pope Meyer, SEC, Saban, Saint Bobby, The Hat, UGA, Vols | No comments

The BCS is officially upon us and most, if not all CFB apologists, have long been innoculated from shock induced by the first official BCS poll, which has been shown to be anything but an edict once the final whistle blows.

That said this year’s inaugural BCS poll has illuminated a frightening possibility:  Ohio State back in the BCS Title Game.  Yep, the Buckeyes, emphatic losers on the biggest stage to Florida, LSU, and most recently, USC, are but one of several one-loss teams with a plausible shot at making it to Miami this January.

For fans of 10th-ranked Florida, OSU’s ranking gives rise to quite a conundrum.  First, Florida must hope that the Buckeyes prevail over Joe Pa’s Lions this week as the Lions remaining schedule is miserable.  This too, however, comes with a significant downside as an OSU win further bolsters USC’s standing.  USC, like PSU, has a miserable schedule and should coast to 11-1, and like OSU, is ranked ahead of Florida. 

This peculiar melding of time, space, and prose, could devolve into a scathing indictment of the Buckeyes, who have (somewhat unfairly) become the Buffalo Bills of our time.  This wooden interpretation, however, sails wide right of the real culprit, the BCS and the resultant confusion for football purists, such as SNL.

For example, Florida fans must now root for FSU (ranked 25th), Alabama, and Georgia to bolster its strength of schedule and, oh yeah, try and win each game as convincingly as possible-which means kicking a late field goal if necessary to go up by 23 points (sorry Coach Shannon, this is big boy football). 

This scenario comprises the Rubik’s Cube that is the BCS, at least  for the contenders and their fans.  Long gone are simpler times, when a loyal foot soldier of the Gators could in good-faith hope for the ‘Noles entire team to simultaneously combust or pray for Da’ U’s cranksters to be sentenced to 15 to life after being ensnared in a reverse cocaine sting in Coconut Grove. 

Nope, today’s CFB landscape is rife with fleeting liaisons in early September that, like one night stands with your undergraduate neighbor, are interminable, at least until you move on to next season (or into a new apartment).  Each week’s scores comprise layers upon layers of comparative data, used to feed software created by dorks and harnessed into computer polls that distill a finished product that seems strangely without any empirical worth whatsoever (see Ohio State ranked above USC as Exhibit “A”). 

Naturally,  those who are forced to endure a season’s worth of dashed hopes, missed chances, and crushed dreams can channel this clusterf*** into a positive.  For example, fans of UM and the Vols can exalt in the fact that their suckitude is at least partly responsible for Florida’s lowly ranking.  Ditto for the entire PAC-10 excluding the Men of Troy. 

Irrespective, the sum of the BCS parts is to be villified for what it isn’t-an objective system that produces a champion by way of a playoff system.  Nonetheless, proponents for the current system remain (though many are in hiding from November through January).  Most vapidly tote the “its better than nothing” party line-the hell it is.  SNL, for one, would rather return to the days of conference bowl affiliations and split titles than allow this charade to continue unfettered.  Naturally, if Florida wins out and defeats an undefeated ‘Bama and by doing so reserves aspot opposite UT, OK, or USC in Miami, SNL will take it all back. 

ERSTWHILE……

The delicate balance between good and evil has been restored, albeit temporarily, as ‘Bama’s behemoth defensive tackle, Mount Cody, is expected to miss 2-4 weeks with an MCL sprain.  Naturally, this can be explained as simply “football,” or alternatively, a karmic event brought on by Darth Saban’s incessant pursuit of world domination.  Either way, The Hat is probably feeling a little better about now.

Mizzou and Texas Tech are much worse than advertised, SNL expects both to be ranked no higher than 20th when the dust settles and won’t be surprised if one or both are unranked at some point.

Boomer Sooner Defense has surrendered damn near 1,000 yards in its last 2 games.  SNL is well aware that the QB play in the Big 12 is superb this year, but remains resistant to the notion that the Big 12 offenses are so good that Oklahoma-whose coach made his way to the $4 million per year money train coaching defense-can’t hold the Jayhawks to under 491 yards.  South Florida held the Jayhawks to 60 less yards than the bevy of blue chippers in Norman, fyi. 

Finally, how good is Texas?  Damn good.  How’s that for genius insight? 

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ACC, BCS, Big 12, Darth Saban, PAC 10, SEC

FLORIDA GATORS: ZEN AND THE ART OF REPUTATION RESTORATION

October 13, 2008 in BIG 10, Fans, Gators, LSU, Main Content, PAC 1 + 9, Pope Meyer, SEC, SEC Fans, Saban | No comments

 Gators back in the driver s seat after trouncing LSU  The outpouring of love for the Florida Gators in the wake of Saturday’s blowout win would undoubtedly be unprecedented were it not for the 12 month orgy that saw a 2006 BCS title sandwiched between 2 basketball chamionships.  Irrespective, the about face by Florida fans-who have become about as faithful as that girl who tells you how “special” you are when she invites you to her house at 2:00 a.m. after 30 minutes of drunken banter-is hilarious when considering that only a week ago calls for Mullen’s head were common, and some went so far as to question Pope Meyer.

Today, Gainesville is the land of “milk and honey,” where strangers stop to help one another with flat tires and assist the elderly across the street.  A quick peek into the camp of the Gator’s vanquished foe reveals that the panic, anxiety, and overall lunacy that infected Gator fans only a week ago, has found a home in Baton Rouge where, less than a year after LSU’s BCS title, the message boards are rife with seditious fans urging Les Miles’ firing.  So, Mr. Jean-Francois gets his car wreck after albeit a little closer to home than anticipated. 

The volatility and histrionics of the SEC fan bases notwithstanding, the only lesson to be taken from Saturday’s results (and this applies from Austin to Gainesville to Athens without exception) is that the 2008 season is upon us.  And, in the SEC and Big 12, which are far and away the strongest and deepest conferences in the land, the weekly fratricide will continue leaving in its wake the chaos, angst, and occasionally, elation that makes CFB the greatest sport on earth. 

SNL would be remiss for failing agree that on a number of levels, the buoyed spirits of the Gator nation appear to be soundly based for a number of reasons.  First, the Gators scored huge with “style points” Saturday.  For those who continue to deride the need to win impressively, SNL recommends a gander at this week’s polls, which now have Florida ahead of Georgia, undefeated BYU, who both won Saturday.   Like it or not, as long as subjectivity remains a core value in the BCS distillation process, big wins in high profile games are worth their weight in gold (see ‘Bama’s victory of UGA as Exhibit “A.”). 

Second, Florida, having lost once, has suffered through the “dark period” that inevitably occurs when a title contender is upset.  SNL concedes that a loss is never a good thing, but for this Gator team, the taste of defeat should remain fresh enough to prevent a second lapse to the “decent” teams as the season wears on (looking at you UK, USC, Vandy and FSU), each of which could, but should not, beat Florida.

Finally, Saturday’s resounding victory has rightfully been characterized as Florida’s renaissance-a game in which Florida found an identity which consists of Tebow distributing the ball to wildly talented speedsters, an increasingly stingy defense, and imposing special teams.  To most partisan observers, Florida’s performance Saturday was like watching the launch of the Space Shuttle after several failed attempts.  The resulting fireworks have given rise to a belief by many, including E-SPIN’s Cowherd, that Florida is one of the top-5 teams in the country. 

Unlike 2 weeks ago, there now exists ample evidence to gauge the 2008 contenders, and it is reasonable to place the Gators in the quintet of BCS-title hopefuls-for now.   Of the 1-loss contenders, USC and Oklahoma rank ahead of Florida today. 

Most pundits agree that the feebleness of the  PAC-1+9 is such that USC lacks the autonomy to make it to the BCS-title game absent more losses by the other elite.  Oklahoma, whose defense again failed to show up for a big-time game, appears poised to win out, as does Florida.  Texas has a tough road and PSU could lose to the Buckeyes.  Which makes viable a scenario whereby a bevy of 1-loss clubs must be distiguished.  If this occurs, Florida’s big-time win last Saturday will be instrumental in building the Gators’ resume.   

Still, the only certainty, for Gators, Lions, Tide, Trojans, Sooners, and Horns is that getting there will be more than half the fun.  It always is.   

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, SEC, Titletown, Urban

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