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Even SNL, certified curmudgeon, naysayer, pessimist, and believer that the “sky is falling” must concede that Florida is good, and getting better.  As always, SNL remains reticent to join the legions of Gator devout who are today openly predicting a BCS Championship on the heels of a ‘Bama route in the ATL.  That said SNL can’t be the only Blogger to refrain from commenting altogether, so here’s some thoughts:

 Tim Tebow threw 13 passes and completed 10.  The efficiency of this offense is nothing short of amazing, but even more amazing is the defense’s ability to put the Gator O in short field situations time and time again. 

Stafford, Knowshon, Green are all supremely talented, but the UGA team overall appears to lack leadership and, dare I say, “heart.”   Naturally, heart is a nebulous term and is not meant to deride the 18 to 20-year old kids on UGA’s team.  Perhaps its better to characterize UGA’s performance as another in a series that seems to indicate that UGA does not itself believe that it can beat Florida.  Thus, when an idiotic penalty brings back an interception (though the penalty seemed to contribute to Florida’s lineman being pushed into the throwing lane), or an on side kick fails, UGA seems to deflate, as if on cue.  

On the bright side, UGA’s lack of zeal highlights the unquestionable passion of our quixotic QB, whom even our enemies like.  Seriously, Tebow is like the love-child of Superman and Ned Flanders-unbelievable.

Speaking of message boards…SNL has long maintained that the similarities between the fans, alums, cities, and cultures that surround SEC football far outweigh the differences.  Seriously, an uninitiated (and color blind) fan would be hard pressed to know the difference between Gainesville, Athens, Birmingham, Knoxville, Charleston, Auburn or Baton Rouger on the weekend of a big game. 

Which is why SNL is increasingly lured to the oppostions message boards following a particularly crushing defeat.  Candid Gators will recall only weeks ago the calls for Mullen’s job, and scathing criticism of everything from the defensive line to our sacrosanct QB-all following a 1-point loss in a game which Florida dominated from a statistical standpoint.

In the weeks that followed, SNL has chronicled LSU’s eerily similar experience (times 2), and watched the Vol nation go into collective despair as Fulmer’s team continues to prove that it really is “that horrible.”  This week, its UGA’s turn. 

The Georgia faithful are calling for Bobo and to a lesser extent, Richt.  They are questioning play-calling, lack of pass rush, lack of heart, Knowshon’s untimely “self-substitution,” Stafford’s penchant for interceptions, and the possible overhaul of the program.  Lighten’ up, Francis.

Georgia optimists are attempting to spin UGA’s meltdown into a convergence of bad calls, lucky breaks, and a few have gone so far as to say that UGA would win against this year’s Gator team more often than not. SNL is willing to concede that there were several bad or missed calls, including Murph’s grabbing of the Georgia DB’s jersey during his 3rd quarter touchdown catch.  That said Haden’s pick was clean and Florida would beat this UGA squad 10 of 10 times.

For those UGA loyalists who believe UGA’s outgaining Florida provides some evidence of equality, think again.  Florida’s plan all along was to shut down Moreno, which they did.  If they gave up some play action passes along the way, so be it.  Florida’s coaches rightfully felt that shutting down the run would dramatically debilitate UGA and Stafford, who has proven time and time again that the game cannot be placed on his shoulders. 

Also, Florida’s offense, while conservative early, could have dramatically increased its numbers if necessary.  After an 80-yard drive in the first quarter, Gators’ touchdown “drives” covered 32, 1, 56, 10 and 25 yards, respectively. Add up Florida’s first six scoring possessions, and you get 204 yards for 42 points.  Factor in the almost 200 yards in interception returns, and Florida’s “offense” puts up nearly 600 yards against UGA, a number that is much more reflective of the actual game.

Quickly…Brantley looks good…Haden is becoming a “Sunday” player….Fulmer is gone, at the hands of Spurrier no less…USC was 40-point favorite over a conference foe for the 3rd time this year…for all of the deserved hype surrounding the Big 12 South, the Big 12 North is horrible.  In fact, the whole conference outside the 4 heavyweights is absolutely terrible…Auburn passed 43 times (and ran 25) against Ole Miss…

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, Pope Meyer, SEC, UGA

The forces of good and evil collide in Jax in two days.  At issue is everything from the SEC East to the BCS and,  in a hyperbolic sense, the very fate of mankind.  For those of you who, like SNL, cannot stop belaboring in excruciating fashion each morsel of statistical data that supports or undermines your belief that your team will prevail, SNL offers the following:

Preamble:  A brief survey of the message boards, blogs, local and state fish-wraps, and national media outlets confirms that all fans present in Jax on Saturday are relatively certain they are going to win convincingly. 

Georgia’s optimism stems largely from last week’s drubbing of the Tigers, which proved to be all the salve needed to heal the wound left Darth Saban’s shock-troops when they kicked the crap out of UGA only a month ago.  UGA has run the table since then, and looked more or less mediocre in the process.

The zeal of the Gator-allegiant stems from back-to-back-to-back thumoings of SEC opponents in the wake of a 1-point loss to Ole Miss in a game that statistically, was also dominated by Florida. 

The result, two confident teams and fan bases sporting more or less the same resume-right?

When Georgia has the ball:  Georgia under Mark Richt has been nothing if not efficient.  Using primarily pro sets, UGA is a run-first/play action pass team when clicking on all cylinders.  Georiga’s offense compensates for its predictability by executing.  This year, UGA has harnessed this recipe into 34 points a game (2nd to Florida’s 42), and ranks 1st in total offense, passing offense, and 2nd in rushing offense.  Despite the gaudy statistics, however, UGA failed to “wow” anyone until last week, posting nondescript victories over Vandy (24-14), USC (14-7), and UT (26-14). 

Staring across the line of scrimmage at Stafford, Moreno and co. will the league’s #1 scoring defense, #3 total defense (allowing several yards per game more than ‘Bama) and #3 rushing defense.  Breakdowns against Ole Miss notwithstanding, most semi-objective Gator followers feel that this unit is supremely talented at LB and DB, and above average along the line-with results on par with the leagues other elite defenses, USC and ‘Bama.

Since Georgia has played USC and ‘Bama, it seems that these two games are far and away the most useful in a comparative sense.  UGA mustered only 50 yards rushing against ‘Bama and 106 against USC.  Florida arguably lacks the inside presence of ‘Bama and USC, but is equal to or better at all skill positions and deeper to boot.  As such, SNL expects Georgia to run ineffectively early, which is important for reasons set forth below.  Knowshon may still go over 100 yards, but will not gash this unit as he did last year, and will find the yards hard to come by in the first half. 

The inability to run early, coupled with Florida’s offense, should result in added pressure to make plays on the part of Stafford, who is clearly capable, but far less efficient when his backfield mate struggles.  Georgia is not a team that relishes unfavorable down and distance situations.

Statistically, this side of the ball is a stalemate and SNL offers a hardy guffaw for those who think this Gator defense will dominate Georgia.  That said this defense won’t have to dominate Georgia, just hold them to something in the rnge of 24 to 28 points, which not only possible, but plausible.

When Florida has the ball:  For starters, Florida is #1in  scoring offense, #2 rushing offense and #3 total offense heading in to Saturday’s matchup.  Florida is also improving, which is scary, and loaded with speed.  Deconstructing Florida’s offense is difficult SNL hasn’t the time or space to devote to this task. 

For comparative purposes, the Dawg D is the league’s 6th ranked unit, giving up 77 ypg against the run (2nd), a beneficent 222 ypg against the pass (11th), and allowing 21 points per game (8th).   You seeing what SNL is seeing?  Georgia’s exuberant fans, exulting last week’s victory with by getting drunk and killing animals, seem to think that UGA’s 2008 defense is “tailor made” to stop Urban’s spread attack. 

SNL doesn’t see it.  Florida has a distinct advantage on this side of the ball, not just because Florida’s offense is statistically better than Georgia’s defense, but because Florida has explosive playmakers all over the field.  Harvin, Rainey, Demps, James, Murphy, Deonte, Hernandez, the other guy, and that dude, can all go the distance.  SNL expects Florida to paint the corners with quick passes and option-reads and go over the top with impunity against Georgia’s marginal pass-rush (1 less sack than Florida through 8 games).  In all, SNL expects there will be no less than 24 Gator points by half, and you should too.

Conclusion:  This doesn’t have to be difficult.  Florida’s defense is much closer to the units that have stymied UGA thus far (‘Bama and USC for those who skipped to the end), and should give Georgia some trouble.  Similarly, Florida’s offense is light years ahead of the one that routed UGA in Athens only a month ago and Georgia will be gashed early and often, forcing the Bulldogs to play catch-up.  Put another way, a mistake by Florida’s defense yields a 25 yard run by Knowshon, a mistake by UGA’s defense yields an E-SPIN highlight that ends with Gators celebrating in the end zone. 

 Naturally, turnovers, injuries, or asteroid showers may alter this game in ways unforeseen, but barring anomalous intervention from unseen forces, this game should be won by the team with more weapons, more motivation, and a Pope for its Coach. 

Florida loses time of possession but wins in a game that will make SEC purists puke, 41-27.  Book it.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Pope Meyer, SEC, UGA

Like the Gators themselves, SNL doesn’t want to play the game today, but hopes to peak as the week goes on, and crescendo on Saturday at or near 3:30 p.m. 

If the local fish-wrap and airwaves are fair indicators, and they usually are, SNL stands alone in his reluctance to begin hyping the UF-UGA rematch.  SNL’s reticence notwithstanding, it seems only fair to offer a pearl or two before substantive analysis begins later in the week.

First, Georgia is the higher ranked team in the only poll that counts, the BCS.  Second, Vegas, stoic in the face of the pollsters and computer dorks who promulgate the BCS, has installed UF as a 5.5-point favorite.  Third, the UGA faithful, lamenting the injuries, arrests, and ass-kicking by the Tide only weeks ago, have been reconstituted by UGA’s thrashing of LSU last Saturday and the web is today rife with comments from prose-challenged UGA fans predicting Gator doom. 

For those Gators inclined to escalate the matter by responding to the poorly articulated web-banter of the Dawg-backers, SNL would recommend a hot shower and a cognac, its going to be a long week.  

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Pope Meyer, UGA, WLOCP

“Act like a man of thought – Think like a man of action.” -

  Not much left to say about UF v. UK.  The mood surrounding the stadium remains unchanged, the fans are essentially making “an appearance” at The Swamp and making plans to meet at one of the nearby watering holes at halftime. 

Crying baby and absent wife, so here’s a brief synopsis of Saturday’s investment opportunities:

Wake at Da’ U (+3/41o):  Wake rebounds here-Skinner has nice day and this game goes over the number-easy, peezy, japaneezy.  Shannon kicks late field goal for 27-21 win and thanks Urban Meyer afterward.  Like da’ Canes and Da’ over.

T. Tech v. Kansas (pk/67o):   Welcome to the Big 12, where the teams score on each other like drunken greeks on spring break.  Over, over, over.

Okie St. at UT (-13/670o):  If UT wins another blowout, they should be placed in the NFL by plebiscite.  Okie and points-I’m a man!!!

Arkansas (+6/56o) v. Ole Miss:  Nitt’s wild ride continues…Hawg’s cover the number, Nutt wins a close one, and Florida’s SOS is minutely improved. 

Georgia v. LSU (-1/51o):  Posed on this game earlier.  Brief recapitulation:  Georgia struggles to run and pass, LSU struggles to run and pass, see Gerogia and LSU struggle to run and pass.  Final score 23-20, Dawgs or Tigers win-take the under.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ATS, Degenerate Gamblers, SEC

“I have a high art, I hurt with cruelty those who would damage me.”

-Saturday Nite  Lights, 2006 A.D.

 Not a ton of news today-Gville remains peculiarly quite on the eve of homecoming, but SNL suspects things will be picking up soon.  In any event, there remains a strong belief that Florida will route UK, both in Gville and Vegas, where the oddsmakers have installed Florida as 24.5-point favorites.

Speaking of things amoral, vacuous, and otherwise irredeemable, SNL’s investment recommendations last week faired only slightly better than the investment houses that bet heavily on subprime mortgages.  Not to worry, SNL will simply ask the feds to bail him out, its the American Way!

With an ATS record of .500, SNL has been dubbed “Even Stephen” by the grinning local Vig.  The reason for the grinning, naturally, is because .500 means “juice” in Vegas parlance, or 10% to the unemployed eye-talian SNL “invests” with.  Like the executives at Lehman, SNL plans on resurfacing this week at an investment firm near you with renewed (but unsubstantiated) belief that he will soon be shopping for Rolexes courtesy of Vegas….

Early Leans….

Auburn v. WVU (-3):  Auburn, recently defrocked by the voters, visits one of the four “redneck cradles of civilization” for a Thursday night game.  Auburn’s defense is still solid and irrational though it may be, the SEC “don’t take kindly to strangers.”  Ask Obama, who was pulled over in MS for a broken taillight.  Leaning towards a spirited Auburn group here.

Boston College at UNC (-3):  Starting to believe that BC is Top-25 material.  Good defense, decent QB, and student fan base every bit as drunk and stupid as your regular student fan base, with one-third less attractive girls.  UNC injuries should help.

Texas Tech (+2) at Kansas:  There must be millions of clever ways to dispel the fatuous notion that TT is a top-10 team.  SNL can’t think of any, so an ass-kicking by Kansas will have to do. 

Okie State v. UT (-13):  Doesn’t the law of averages mandate that someone cover the spread against UT?  Why not Okie State, they are, after all, coached by a man, who is over 40.  In waht must be characterized as the very embodiment of “gambling,” leaning towards the Cowboys. 

Georgia v. LSU:  This game is more notable for the quandary it presents Gator backers with than anything else.  Georgia win sends Gameday to Jax and likely gets the Gators attention.  An LSU win helps SOS but likely makes Georgia a sizeable underdog next week.  That said Georgia pisses SNL off.  Knowshon, Stafford, and Green are all elite players, but Georgia can’t put anyone away and LSU is still a bellicose group-especially after being emasculated in Gainesville.  SNL likes the short number here for the Tigers.

Colorado (+21.5) at Mizzou:  Lotta points for a dispirited group collecting the pieces of their shattered ambitions.  Hmmm…..

Elsewhere…

The BCS computers like the SEC…SNL, much to the chagrin of his scientist father, will not bore you with the crushingly oppressive  mathematics, but the suffice it to say that the computers have the SEC ranked lightly ahead of the Big 12 at this point.  Here’s the “BCS Computers for Dummies” version…

The “z-score” is a composite of the 6  computers used to rank the conferences as a whole.  The computers exist inedependent of one another and use largely the same criteria albeit with different weights assigned to certain variables. 

The average of these 6 z-scores is:

SEC: 1.138
Big 12: 1.127
ACC: 0.804
Big 10: 0.776

Big East: 0.328
PAC 10: 0.277
MWC: 0.122

WAC: -0.605

MAC: -1.127
C-USA: -1.235
Sun Belt: -1.605

One would think that even the most rudimentary of computers would have the MWC above the PAC-10 by virtue of the fact that the MWC is 5-0 v. the PAC-10.  Just be happy SEC is where it should be, #1.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ACC, ATS, Big 12, PAC 1+9, SEC

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