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CAPPIN’ ON THURSDAY: SO EASY EVEN A CAVEMAN CAN DO IT (5-0-1 ATS)

October 16, 2008 in ACC, ATS, Degenerate Gamblers, Main Content, TV SCHEDULE | No comments

 

Before launching into Thursday’s picks, let’s clear the air.  SNL was 2-2 last week ATS.  Shame, humiliation, fear of repraisal from Vinny “the hands” Randazzo who “lost big,” have dominated SNL’s waking moments since.  The mediocrity that plagues SNL’s overall record, however, is in stark contrast to SNL’s Thursday/Friday record, which is 5-0-1.  So, this week’s plan is to hit the book hard tonight and, like the investment gurus, enagage in some “profit taking” before moving forward with any new investment opportunities.  Let’s do this…

FSU (-11/o48) at NCSU:  4-1 FSU has found a new identity as the official “3 yards and a pile of dust” University, rushing for over 250 yards in victories over Miami and Colorado.  Gone is the fast-break that carried the ‘Noles to national prominence in the 90’s and in its stead lies an offense that would make Vince Dooley proud.  

On the other side of the ball, FSU looks more like its old square-jawed self, holding conference opponents to about 50 yards per game rushing and in the words of the warm anf fuzzy Mickey Andrews, “gettin’s after the quarterback purty good.” 

Erstwhile, NCSU, beset by injuries, appears to be frantically battling the Terps in the “unpredictable” category, beating then 15th-ranked ECU, losing 41-10 to USF, and losing in OT to BC.  However, appearances can be deceiving as there is nothing unpredictable about NCSU, which has struggled since losing its starting QB, being outgained by nearly 300 yards by both USF and BC, albeit with dramitically different final scores.  Score notwithstanding, the “eyeball test” reveals that NCSU was dominated in both games and is struggling on offense.

There are, however, some wild cards in NCSU’s favor:  1) O’Brien is a good coach and is more than capable of a game plan that will keep this thing close; 2) It’s Thursday night-when SNL last checked, double-digit home dogs covered almost 75% of the time in this time slot; and 3) FSU still hasn’t shown that they can throw when called upon to do so against a decent defense (which NCSU isn’t, but not by much)..

The tea leaves therefore, reveal a low scoring affair with the ‘Noles winning by 10-13 points.  Naturally, this makes the line about right.  However, there seems to be some value in the total here by virtue of FSU’s last game (41-39 over Da’ U) and NCSU’s last game (38-31 loss to BC).  SNL therefore, makes this a small (emphasis added) play on the under.

BYU (-1/o45) v. TCU:  Fans from every part of the counrty will be rooting against the Latter Day Saints tonight, and with good reason.  TCU is one of only two teams with a chance to derail the Mormon’s run into the BCS mix.  While SNL sees no real downside to BYU playing against a Big East Champ in the BCS, aside from a possible pollution of the homogenous BYU bloodline, this slot would arguably be better filled by a 2 loss heavyweight from a power conference.

Here’s the quick and dirty-no one runs on TCU. Period.  The mighty Sooners rushed for only 25 yards on the Frogs, which should be enough for you stat-hounds to agree with this contention.  TCU also fields a balanced offense, which features multiple formations and plenty of skill.

BYU has also been salty on defense, pitching 2 shutouts and giving up more than 17 points in only 1 game (out of 6).  It doesn’t take Ms. Cleo to see that this game is all about the pass.  The clock will stop plenty and both teams can be expected to throw the ball about 70% of the time.  In addition, Vegas has factored in the last outing for both teams (BYU 21-3 over New Mexico and TCU 13-7 over Colorado St.) into the total, which is a reasonable 45.  So, when the final whistle blows, SNL likes these teams to go over the relatively low number-something in the range of 28-24 sounds about right.

Now, go out and buy yourself something cheap you scamps!!

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ACC, BYU, DEGENERATES

STATS FROM DR. SATURDAY

October 6, 2008 in ACC, BIG 10, Gators, Main Content, Notre Dame, PAC 1 + 9, SEC, SEC Fans, Saban, TV SCHEDULE, UGA | No comments

The following stats and pics come from Dr. Saturday’s recent post.  While SNL has not independently confirmed the content, you can bank on its accuracy considering the source.

UConn outgained North Carolina by 115 yards and ten first downs and lost by 26 points.

• Missouri converted seven of nine first downs, scored on each of its first seven possessions and went 60 yards before going out on downs on its eighth and final drive in a 52-17 win over Nebraska. After punting once against Nevada and once against Buffalo, the Tigers did not punt at all against the Huskers.

• With six points against Penn State, Purdue has averaged eight points in its last seven games against Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin, most of them with the game out of reach in the fourth quarter.

• Minnesota held Indiana to seven points on 293 yards, the Gophers’ best defensive game in either category since beating depression-era Penn State in 2004. That would have been a good quarter for the Gopher defense in 2007.

• Georgia Tech completed nine passes for 230 yards in its 27-0 win over Duke, all of them to Demaryius Thomas. Duke’s 132 total yards was the Devils’ lowest output since September 2005.

• Florida State gained 440 yards, scored 41 points, turned the ball over five times, gave up 36 points in the second half and didn’t punt in its 41-39 win over Miami.

• Boston College easily doubled up N.C. State in total yards, 578 to 253, but only scored the winning touchdown with 22 seconds on the clock.

• Oklahoma State and Texas A&M were nearly dead-even in total yards, but four touchdowns apart on the scoreboard thanks to three non-offensive touchdowns by the Cowboys in the first half.

• Kansas gained 87 yards and scored zero points in the first half, before gaining 354 yards and scoring 35 points in the second half of its 35-33 win over Iowa State.

• As predicted, Jimmy Clausen had his first 300-yard passing game, with three touchdowns and no interceptions in Notre Dame’s win over Stanford. And for Chris Marinelli: the Irish sacked Tavita Pritchard five times.

• Air Force outgained Navy by 167 yards, and lost, 33-27, thanks to two blocked punts returned for touchdown.

• TCU outrushed San Diego State by 396 yards, 383 to -13, in a 41-7 Horned Frogs win. SDSU held the ball for just 16:31 and totaled 85 yards total offense.

• Ball State ran for 240 yards and passed for 242 in a 31-0 win over Toledo.

• Southern Miss running back Damion Fletcher ran for a national-high 260 yards on 7.6 per carry in USM’s double-overtime loss to (gag me) UTEP.

Next up:  Early Look:  LSU v. Florida

Tags: News and notes

FLORIDA: THE SMALL PICTURE

September 29, 2008 in Main Content, SEC, SEC Fans, TV SCHEDULE, UGA, Vols | 1 comment

SNL has chronicled throughout the first 4 games of the Gators 2008 campaign the discontent of many Gator loyalists who, like most of the national media, expected an offense that would leave teams demoralized and humbled after playing Florida in 2008. 

The decibel of the voices of Gator fans espousing their disapproval have varied somewhat, but have been largely tempered by the Gators (seemingly) lopsided wins against UM and UT. 

As one might imagine, the discontent, fomented by the obvious inaduequacy of the offense, has morphed overnight into a full-blown rebellion against Gator offensive coordinator, Dan Mullen after Saturday’s loss. 

In fact, if SNL’s sensory perception faculties are accurate (which is debatable due to a very strong pre-game cocktail or 2), the exact moment that the largely diffuse rumblings regarding Mullen’s ability to coordinate this offense coalesced into a full-blown insurrection occurred sometime in the 3rd quarter of Saturday’s loss.  

The manifestations of this are difficult, if not impossible to quantify.  But suffice it to say that the Meyer regime has built considerable credit based on the improbable 2006 title run.  Meyer’s ability to lead this team remains unquestioned, and deservedly so.  However, the rumblings from the Gator faithful, which are currently directed at Mullen and his beleaguered offense, evidence the beginnings of an erosion of faith which, if not stemmed by some impressive showings in the weeks to come, will become increasingly difficult to ignore.  In short, Gator fans do not take kindly to losing at The Swamp as a 23-point favorite.  And, Gator fans will be forced at some point to acknowledge that Meyer is 6-4 in his last 10 SEC contests, hardly an intimidating statistic for a Coach so wildly heralded only a few short years ago.

To be sure, there are some positive signs after 4 games-the defense forced Ole Miss into a “3 and out” on 9 of 13 Ole Miss possessions, and the offense moved the ball at will in the 4th quarter.  However, the small picture for Florida right now includes an inability to consistently protect Tebow, and an even more alarming inability to throw the ball downfield against defenses that are clearly aligned to stop Tebow (and the run)and want to see Florida beat them with the pass to a wide recevier who isn’t named Harvin. 

To make matters worse, questions regarding Tebow’s ability to pass have resurfaced given the number of missed passes and the Defense, while improved, remains susceptible to the long ball (or run) and lacks the disruptive force at tackle necessary to ascend from the “good” to the “dominant” category. 

The sum of all of this may well be that the expectations of this Gator team, which seemd reasonable on paper, were at the end of the day, unreasonable.  After 1/3 of the season, this remains a team with some serious warts, which may or may not be correctible.  Best case scenario is that this team, which has heart and some talent, finds it way to a 10-2 record and SEC East title where it will face an imposing Alabama or rematch LSU. 

The worst case scenario, unfathomable only a week ago, is that this team manages to lose to both LSU and Georgia, and finds a way to slip up at FSU or against UK/Vandy, which yields the familiar and uninspiring trip to Orlando to play Wisconsin or Illinois.  The one certainty is that between Meyer and Tebow, there is considerable determination and heart on the side of the Gators, and if there’s a way to will this team to 11-1, these two will find it.  However, should they fail for whatever reason, the chorus of doubters will find a life of its own and, much like contemporary life in Tally, Knoxville, Clemson, and South Carolina, yield a distracted team and a disprited fan base. 

Either way, get ready for a bumpy ride, because this trek will be anything but easy.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Cap 1, SEC, UF, Urban Meyer

WEEK 4 PICKS: LORD LOVES A WORKIN’ MAN

September 20, 2008 in ACC, Degenerate Gamblers, Main Content, PAC 10, TV SCHEDULE | No comments

Should we run Coach Croom
Should we run up the middle Coach Croom?

By now you know that SNL does its homework, so in the vein of the ostensibly impartial and always abrasive  Bill O’Reilly, the following write-ups will be “pithy.”

 

ECU at NCSU (+7/44o/u):  In the words of the only…uhhhh…”rural-minded” individual SNL knows, “Buckshot” Aaron, somebody needs to “teach that dog (NCSU) to hunt.”  Sure, ECU struggled at Tulane last week, and may struggle today, but this total is way to high.  While there’s no such thing as a lock, this game is a:
“a device for securing money in position when gambled, consisting of a bolt or system of bolts propelled and withdrawn by a mechanism operated by a key, dial, etc.”
Miss ST. at GTU (-7.5/37o/u):  Before you spend your allowance on this one, you should confirm who Coach Croom’s starting pitcher will be.  It won’t matter-these two teams won’t score 37 points without 5 overtimes.  SNL likes the under.
Wake Forest v. FSU (-5/51o/u):  Wake Forest will score on FSU like Herbstreit at a Sorority House. FSU should score plenty too-take the points, take the over, just try to insert yourself somewhere amidst all this scoring.
LSU at Auburn (+3/37o/u):  The only man SNL ever met from Auburn told him that SNL was “wuthless as tits on a boar hog.”  This would have been more upsetting had it made any sense to a native Miamian (and had this man not been wearing a barrel with supported by suspenders).  Irrespective, SNL is trying to figure out what’s more likely, these teams scoring 37 points, or Obama carrying Alabama in the election.  After some thought, the former is more likely, but not likely enough….take the under.
-So Sayeth the Shepherd
 

Tags: ATS, BCS, DEGENERATES

BREAKING THE GOLDEN RULE: MOUNTAINEERS V. BUFFALOES

September 18, 2008 in Degenerate Gamblers, Main Content, TV SCHEDULE | No comments

  SNL, like any ‘capper, has some golden rules regarding games that are worthy of its attention.  Among them are:  1) Don’t handicap a game unless you have seen each team play at least twice with its current personnel and coach; and 2) Don’t handicap a game that is the only game on the board without compelling reason.  Suffuce it to say that there exists no objective evidence that warrants abrogating these rules tomight.  Unless, of course, you find WVU’s fall from grace “compelling.”  Irrespective…

…the lack of objective findings  segues nicely into today’s WVU at CO game, which SNL likes for reasons that are as nebulous as those that made American Idol a pop culture fixture. 

As with any game, we begin with the line, which dropped  from 4.5 to 3.5 overnight, which is upsetting.  Installing Colorado, which admittedly struggled last week against Eastern Washington.  The obvious letdown by the Buffaloes following their 38-17 trouncing of in-state rival CSU notwithstanding, last week’s game against EWU provides some harbingers of hope for the erratic Buffaloes and their enigmatic Coach, Dan Hawkins. 

First, Colorado allowed only 47 yards rushing on 22 attempts (you do the math), and, after falling behind 21-7 at the half, outscored the “whatever-their-mascot-is” EWU squad 24-3 in the second half.  Factor in Colorado’s opening performance against CSU, in which the Buffs allowed 71 yards rushing, and it appears that this unit will be formidable against the run.

West Virginia, conversely, has been one of the big disappointments of the year thus far.  Fresh off their drubbing of Sooners and the frenzied, victory-induced hire of Rodriguez’ assistant, much was expected of this years Mountaineers.  The question facing this team is how will they respond after ECU’s emphatic beat-down, which quickly revitalized the chorus of doubters who questioned from the start the decision to hire Coach Stewart and made ECU the trendy “crush” of CFB pundits from sea to shining sea.

A closer look at the Mountaineers loss shows that they remain capable of rushing (179.0 against ECU), but of dubious capabilities when forced to pass (11-18 for 72 yards) against ECU.  Given Colorado’s apparent ability to play the run, there exists a reasonably likelihood that the passing game will be required to win tonight in Boulder. 

In a more global sense, tonight’s game is a referendum on two things:  1) Dan Hawkins, the once highly regarded HC of the resurgent Boise St. program, ability to make the Buffs marginally relevant on the national scene; and  2) Whether the departure of Rodriguez, coupled with the death of WVU’s seemingly realistic goals of a Big East and possibly, national title, will result in a team that is more likely to implode or rally as the season wears on.

Whatever the answer, the nation’s refusal to accept that WVU is a struggling program right now has resulted in the wrong team being favored tonight.  Hazarding an opinion based on intuition and the ECU debacle leads SNL to believe that the sublime force that was WVU is rapidly declining and, while Colorado can hardly be considered a hegemonic power in the Big 12, it is a program on the rise and will be playing for respectability. SNL looks for Colorado to cover this low number, if not win outright, in a frenzied atmosphere in Boulder.

Pick:  CO +3.5

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Big 12, Big East, Degenerate Gamblers

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