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Florida’s 2009 wish list & a Layla Kiffin tribute.

August 23, 2009 in BCS, E-SPIN, Gators, PAC 1 + 9, PAC 10, Pope Meyer, UGA, Vols | No comments

Are you kidding?

Seriously?

What is there to wish for if you’re a Florida Gator in 2009?  You’ve won 2 of the last three National Titles, boast the most recognizable and revered college football player in the last 30 years (and possibly ever), the best coach-sorry Pete, and begin the season where you left off, a near unanimous No. 1. 

The foregoing facts have fueled a cacophonous symphony of praise from the E-SPIN heads to the local talk show hosts.  Yep, the Gator Nation is fat and happy.  And, with an opening date with Charleston Southern, a 73-point underdog, there’s not much to talk about until Florida welcomes SEC newbie, Layla Kiffin’s husband to The Swamp.  Right?  Wrong. 

Florida has-and in some respects rightfully so-been suffering a quiet smear campaign as a result of its woeful non-conference schedule.  SNL knows, the SEC “grind” is second to none in the paradigm of conference strength, and this will continue to be the case in the foreseeable future.  That said the precipitous downfall of Auburn and UT, coupled with the impotence of Spurrier’s ‘Cocks (pun intended), has damaged the SEC’s Street-Cred, at least temporarily. 

So, what Florida fans should be rooting for can be distilled down to the following: 

  1. UT beats-no crushes-the Cuddly Bruins from the PAC 1+9.  While we’re at it, let’s hope the lascivious E-SPIN camera men are smart enough to fill our high-def screens with images of the giddy Jessica Simpson….errrr…I meant Layla Kiffin.
  2. FSU beats Da’U and crushes the polygamists of BYU (lucky bastards!).  Seriously, rooting against FSU is so indelibly tattooed on Gators its difficult to do, but Florida is in desperate need of the SOS.
  3. Steve Superior’s ‘Cocks prevail over the yet another cuddly group of Wolves at NCSU.  This game takes on added import as it is opening day, which means degenerate gamblers with far more money than SNL-and presumably, wives who are willing to wear shoes not made by Prada-will be boozing and wagering like sugared-up 12-year olds at a slumber party.  The conference needs a strong showing here.
  4. Saban’s Storm Troopers crush the formidable-but-painful-to-watch Hokies.  SNL knows that every Hokie slight brings him closer to death via Vinnie “Hands” Randazzo and his entourage of guinea soldiers.  Still, VT is the likely ACC champ and in today’s playoff-less world, the “X beat Y which beat Z” argument holds a lot of sway with the more feeble-minded fans (and some analysts too). 
  5. UGA beats what’s-his face at Okie State.  Yeah, SNL knows that the “what’s-his-face” referred to here is “A MAN!!!”, still, he’s Zooker’s cohort which in and of itself is sufficient reason to root for his demise.  Throw in the current Big 12 v. SEC rivalry, and there’s no compelling reason not to wish for a demoralizing defeat for the Cow-girls in Stillwater.   

The moral of the story is that a single loss by the Florida juggernaut this year may be sufficient to derail any hopes at an unprecedented 3rd appearance in 4-years in the BCSG.  The axiomatic (look it up flock) conclusion is that UF, more so than in any year in recent memory, is in need of a strong showing from its opponents.  

Next:  Opening lines and investment opportunities. 

 

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

WHILE I WAS OUT……SATURDAY’S CARD AND OTHER ANECDOTAL MUSINGS

November 20, 2008 in ACC, ATS, BCS, Foolmer, Gators, LSU, Main Content, PAC 1 + 9, SEC, Saban, Vols | No comments

SNL’s apologies for the length of time between posts.  For the record, you can chalk it up to the usual litany of grown-man issues:  attention starved (but hot) wife; attention starved (but adorable) 1 yr-old son; and attention starved cases requiring maintenance in the form of mediations, motions, demands and the like.  Oh yeah, as evidenced below, SNL has also been forced to endure the South Beach diet, with admittedly stunning results, as you can see.

Naturally, SNL remains receptive to employment overtures from any mainstream media outlet.  Hell, he’d even goose step amongst the E-SPIN propagandists for a pittance…

There have been a number of inquiries since my last post-well, 10 to be exact.  Most were flattering calls for a speedy return from adoring readers.  The other 7 were typical ‘Bama fan vitriole calling for SNL’s death, threatening his family, and attacking his sexuality based on nothing more than his allegiance to his alma mater and unfettered hatred for the state of Alabama, its corpulent populace, 3-legged dogs, litter, love of fried shit, cigarettes and Code Red Mountain Dew, and most of all, its football team.

Interesting to note that the calls and e-mails from SNL’s Gator constituency continue to center around ‘Bama which means that, predictably, the Gators have discarded the viability of a ‘Nole (or Citadel) upset next week.  Go figure.
 

THE PICKS…

3-2 last week which means the wisby (This is a nickname SNL’s wife made for herself.  It is typically accompanied by a “husby,” which is SNL.  Embarrassing, but true.) is unlikely to receive her diamond earrings from Santa-husby.  But also means SNL does not owen Vincenzo any scratch and not in danger of losing a limb.

UW (-7.5) at Wazzou:  “This is a rivalry game…you can throw the records out the window…blah, blah, blah.”  These teams are a combined 1-20.  The gamewill not be televised nor would anyone watch if it were.  However, the winner of this game will be unofficially crowned the “second worst BCS team in 2009.”  This, friends, is a distinction worth fighting for!  Washington has been competitive of late, leading ‘zona in the 3rd quarter, and wants to send off Willingham in style.  Wazzou is lifeless, like a passed out tri-delt at homecoming.  Huskies roll!!!

Illinois v. Northwestern (+2.5):  Wrong team favored.  SNL wathced Zookers clubs quit on him for years and knows the recipe well.  Last week’s loss to the Buckeyes ensured that the Zookers will lie down this Saturday like the doormat bombshell that keeps letting you come over at 2:00 a.m. to say “hi.”  What’s her number again?

UT at Vandy (-3.5):  The Commies exact their revenge for years for years of futility by beating the poopie out of Foolmer’s despondent group.  For UT, the season mercifully ends-which is the only thing anyone dressed in that godawful neon orange cares about.  Vandy, conversely, is taking their geniusness bowling! Viva la revelucion’!

Ole Miss (+7) at LSU:  If this needs explaining, SNL cannot help you.  Ole Miss may well win this game outright.  For those playing with house money, throw some on the moneyline.  Nutt’s boys are headed to 8-4 and a top-25 ranking before its all said and done.

T.Tech (+7) v. Oklahoma:  This one is dicey, but a touchdown seems awful generous.  On the other hand, Tech hasn’t played anyone worth a damn outside of Lubbock, which makes Columbus (Ohio) look like gay Paris’ by the way.

Tags: ACC, ATS, Picks, SEC, The Hat

UF V. UGA: WINNING SPAWNS THE FREEDOM TO RAMBLE….

November 3, 2008 in ACC, ATS, BCS, LSU, Main Content, SEC, The Hat, UGA, Vols | No comments

Even SNL, certified curmudgeon, naysayer, pessimist, and believer that the “sky is falling” must concede that Florida is good, and getting better.  As always, SNL remains reticent to join the legions of Gator devout who are today openly predicting a BCS Championship on the heels of a ‘Bama route in the ATL.  That said SNL can’t be the only Blogger to refrain from commenting altogether, so here’s some thoughts:

 Tim Tebow threw 13 passes and completed 10.  The efficiency of this offense is nothing short of amazing, but even more amazing is the defense’s ability to put the Gator O in short field situations time and time again. 

Stafford, Knowshon, Green are all supremely talented, but the UGA team overall appears to lack leadership and, dare I say, “heart.”   Naturally, heart is a nebulous term and is not meant to deride the 18 to 20-year old kids on UGA’s team.  Perhaps its better to characterize UGA’s performance as another in a series that seems to indicate that UGA does not itself believe that it can beat Florida.  Thus, when an idiotic penalty brings back an interception (though the penalty seemed to contribute to Florida’s lineman being pushed into the throwing lane), or an on side kick fails, UGA seems to deflate, as if on cue.  

On the bright side, UGA’s lack of zeal highlights the unquestionable passion of our quixotic QB, whom even our enemies like.  Seriously, Tebow is like the love-child of Superman and Ned Flanders-unbelievable.

Speaking of message boards…SNL has long maintained that the similarities between the fans, alums, cities, and cultures that surround SEC football far outweigh the differences.  Seriously, an uninitiated (and color blind) fan would be hard pressed to know the difference between Gainesville, Athens, Birmingham, Knoxville, Charleston, Auburn or Baton Rouger on the weekend of a big game. 

Which is why SNL is increasingly lured to the oppostions message boards following a particularly crushing defeat.  Candid Gators will recall only weeks ago the calls for Mullen’s job, and scathing criticism of everything from the defensive line to our sacrosanct QB-all following a 1-point loss in a game which Florida dominated from a statistical standpoint.

In the weeks that followed, SNL has chronicled LSU’s eerily similar experience (times 2), and watched the Vol nation go into collective despair as Fulmer’s team continues to prove that it really is “that horrible.”  This week, its UGA’s turn. 

The Georgia faithful are calling for Bobo and to a lesser extent, Richt.  They are questioning play-calling, lack of pass rush, lack of heart, Knowshon’s untimely “self-substitution,” Stafford’s penchant for interceptions, and the possible overhaul of the program.  Lighten’ up, Francis.

Georgia optimists are attempting to spin UGA’s meltdown into a convergence of bad calls, lucky breaks, and a few have gone so far as to say that UGA would win against this year’s Gator team more often than not. SNL is willing to concede that there were several bad or missed calls, including Murph’s grabbing of the Georgia DB’s jersey during his 3rd quarter touchdown catch.  That said Haden’s pick was clean and Florida would beat this UGA squad 10 of 10 times.

For those UGA loyalists who believe UGA’s outgaining Florida provides some evidence of equality, think again.  Florida’s plan all along was to shut down Moreno, which they did.  If they gave up some play action passes along the way, so be it.  Florida’s coaches rightfully felt that shutting down the run would dramatically debilitate UGA and Stafford, who has proven time and time again that the game cannot be placed on his shoulders. 

Also, Florida’s offense, while conservative early, could have dramatically increased its numbers if necessary.  After an 80-yard drive in the first quarter, Gators’ touchdown “drives” covered 32, 1, 56, 10 and 25 yards, respectively. Add up Florida’s first six scoring possessions, and you get 204 yards for 42 points.  Factor in the almost 200 yards in interception returns, and Florida’s “offense” puts up nearly 600 yards against UGA, a number that is much more reflective of the actual game.

Quickly…Brantley looks good…Haden is becoming a “Sunday” player….Fulmer is gone, at the hands of Spurrier no less…USC was 40-point favorite over a conference foe for the 3rd time this year…for all of the deserved hype surrounding the Big 12 South, the Big 12 North is horrible.  In fact, the whole conference outside the 4 heavyweights is absolutely terrible…Auburn passed 43 times (and ran 25) against Ole Miss…

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, Pope Meyer, SEC, UGA

SEC V. BIG 12 AND THE COCKTAIL PARTY’S IMPACT ON THE BCS

October 29, 2008 in ATS, BIG 10, Foolmer, Gators, Joe Pa', LSU, Main Content, SEC, Saban, UGA, Vols | No comments

I hate the gayyy-turd's more than Barrack Hussein Bin Laden!
I hate the gayyy-turds!

It  was only a matter of time before SNL was forced to add his sing-song voice to the choir of those consumed by the Big 12 v. SEC debate. 

Most know that the debate has been rigidly framed as “SEC defenses v. Big 12 offenses.”  This is conventional wisdom and few have bothered to look beyond this paradigm when comparing the 2 conferences.
 
Lacking the resources and time of the pundits, and unconstrained by convention, SNL takes a more global position on this issue.  
The lynch-pin of the conventional argument rests squarely on the shoulders of the quarterback, which is universally and correctly held to be the most important position in football at any level.  The overall performance of teams with upper-classmen at the QB position is oft-dissected and needn’t be replodded here.  Suffice it to say, however, that national championship caliber teams are led by seasoned QB’s more often than not.  It is important to note that the QB need not be the best player on the team or a superstar, but only experienced enough to avoid costly mistakes and make a “play or two” at crucial moments.  Leinart, Flynn, Leak, Bradford, White, Wuerrfel and so on…. 
Most punidts and statisticians take this paradigm a step further by factoring defense for obvious reasons.  To be sure, teams with a junior or senior QB and stifling defense seem to have the best recipe to win the BCS. 
Lacking pocket protectors, slide rulers, and oddles of leisure time to painstakingly review satistics from year’s past, SNL will rely on the old-fashioned “eyeball test” to divide the teams in each conference into 4 categories:  1) Elite; 2) Very Good; 3) average to good; 4) bad. 
Using this admittedly subjective system, even the most subjuective SEC homer will conclude that this year, the Big 12 trumps the SEC by the slightest of margins.  Here’s why:
The  SEC in 2008 has three “elite clubs”:   ‘Bama, Georgia, and Florida.  The Big 12 has 2 or 3 depending on your distillation process, but we can all agree on OU and UT.  However, in the very good category, the SEC has 1 at best (LSU), and even this is debatable and contingent largely LSU’s ability to win out, which is far from likely.  The Big 12, conversely, has at least 3 teams that are very good, TTech, Okie St., and Mizzou. 
For those of you who believe the SEC’s depth is the difference and look to the “average” category for support, there is a ray of hope in the form of the remaining schools in each conference.  South Carolina (5-3) and Ole Miss (the best 4-4 club in the country), are average to good, and likely better than the remainder of the Big 12 teams, of which only Kansas can be considered average to good.  So the SEC gains 1 back here.  The most ardent SEC supporter could attempt to add Vandy here, but this contention is summarily dismissed when considering that Vandy managed to lost to DUKE at home. 
In the aggregate, 6 of 12 Big 12 schools are elite or very good.  This is at least 2 (and arguably 3) more than the SEC can muster this year.  In the average to good category, the SEC can place 2 to the Big 12’s 1, which still leaves a significant gap between the 2 conferences.   
Naturally, a normal “SEC year” would find UT and Auburn hovering at or near the top-15 in both ranking and total defense, with South Carolina and at least 1 “write-in,” such as Ole Miss, UK, or Arkansas, in the top-25.  It is therefore not as much the strength of the second-tier Big 12 schools that carries the day  as it is the weakness of prennial power schools, UT and Auburn, that tilts this argument in favor of the Big 12 this year.  
Looking forward, its safe to say that the SEC and Big 12 will annually represent the best and deepest conferences in the Country by far.  SNL neither needs nor wants a bevy of statistics to support either conference’s superiority over time, because none it matters in 2008. 
It is foolish to believe that the winner of this Saturday’s WLOCP has more than a slugger’s chance to reach the BCS title game in the wake of PSU’s victory.  That said there are serious ramifications for the loser, who will be effectively barred from an at-large BCS bid and therefore relegated to…..dare I say…Orlando for a New Year’s Day game against you guessed it, the Buckeyes!! 
That the SEC and Big 12 will place 2 teams apiece in the BCS seems self-evident.  ‘Bama, even with a regular season loss and an SEC title game loss, is a shoe-in for one, same goes for the East winner (assuming no further regular season losses).  Saturday’s loser, therefore, will be “black-balled” by the BCS-you can bet on it. 
Forget UGA’s sophomoric stomp last year, if Florida needs any motivation they need look no further than last year’s miserable trip to Orlando.  SNL says this not just becaused of the result, but because the stadium, nearby facilities, and atmosphere of this game were horrible.  There’s not a restaurant or bar within miles of the stadium, which looks like a reconstituted Orange Bowl minus the flooding urinals. 
For the love of God Timmie, win this game!!!!
-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, BIG 10, Big 12, SEC, UGA

THE ALTERNATIVE TRUTH OF THE BCS OR, “IS THAT A BUCKEYE UP AHEAD?”

October 20, 2008 in ACC, ATS, BCS, BIG 10, Degenerate Gamblers, Gators, Joe Pa', LSU, Main Content, PAC 1 + 9, Pope Meyer, SEC, Saban, Saint Bobby, The Hat, UGA, Vols | No comments

The BCS is officially upon us and most, if not all CFB apologists, have long been innoculated from shock induced by the first official BCS poll, which has been shown to be anything but an edict once the final whistle blows.

That said this year’s inaugural BCS poll has illuminated a frightening possibility:  Ohio State back in the BCS Title Game.  Yep, the Buckeyes, emphatic losers on the biggest stage to Florida, LSU, and most recently, USC, are but one of several one-loss teams with a plausible shot at making it to Miami this January.

For fans of 10th-ranked Florida, OSU’s ranking gives rise to quite a conundrum.  First, Florida must hope that the Buckeyes prevail over Joe Pa’s Lions this week as the Lions remaining schedule is miserable.  This too, however, comes with a significant downside as an OSU win further bolsters USC’s standing.  USC, like PSU, has a miserable schedule and should coast to 11-1, and like OSU, is ranked ahead of Florida. 

This peculiar melding of time, space, and prose, could devolve into a scathing indictment of the Buckeyes, who have (somewhat unfairly) become the Buffalo Bills of our time.  This wooden interpretation, however, sails wide right of the real culprit, the BCS and the resultant confusion for football purists, such as SNL.

For example, Florida fans must now root for FSU (ranked 25th), Alabama, and Georgia to bolster its strength of schedule and, oh yeah, try and win each game as convincingly as possible-which means kicking a late field goal if necessary to go up by 23 points (sorry Coach Shannon, this is big boy football). 

This scenario comprises the Rubik’s Cube that is the BCS, at least  for the contenders and their fans.  Long gone are simpler times, when a loyal foot soldier of the Gators could in good-faith hope for the ‘Noles entire team to simultaneously combust or pray for Da’ U’s cranksters to be sentenced to 15 to life after being ensnared in a reverse cocaine sting in Coconut Grove. 

Nope, today’s CFB landscape is rife with fleeting liaisons in early September that, like one night stands with your undergraduate neighbor, are interminable, at least until you move on to next season (or into a new apartment).  Each week’s scores comprise layers upon layers of comparative data, used to feed software created by dorks and harnessed into computer polls that distill a finished product that seems strangely without any empirical worth whatsoever (see Ohio State ranked above USC as Exhibit “A”). 

Naturally,  those who are forced to endure a season’s worth of dashed hopes, missed chances, and crushed dreams can channel this clusterf*** into a positive.  For example, fans of UM and the Vols can exalt in the fact that their suckitude is at least partly responsible for Florida’s lowly ranking.  Ditto for the entire PAC-10 excluding the Men of Troy. 

Irrespective, the sum of the BCS parts is to be villified for what it isn’t-an objective system that produces a champion by way of a playoff system.  Nonetheless, proponents for the current system remain (though many are in hiding from November through January).  Most vapidly tote the “its better than nothing” party line-the hell it is.  SNL, for one, would rather return to the days of conference bowl affiliations and split titles than allow this charade to continue unfettered.  Naturally, if Florida wins out and defeats an undefeated ‘Bama and by doing so reserves aspot opposite UT, OK, or USC in Miami, SNL will take it all back. 

ERSTWHILE……

The delicate balance between good and evil has been restored, albeit temporarily, as ‘Bama’s behemoth defensive tackle, Mount Cody, is expected to miss 2-4 weeks with an MCL sprain.  Naturally, this can be explained as simply “football,” or alternatively, a karmic event brought on by Darth Saban’s incessant pursuit of world domination.  Either way, The Hat is probably feeling a little better about now.

Mizzou and Texas Tech are much worse than advertised, SNL expects both to be ranked no higher than 20th when the dust settles and won’t be surprised if one or both are unranked at some point.

Boomer Sooner Defense has surrendered damn near 1,000 yards in its last 2 games.  SNL is well aware that the QB play in the Big 12 is superb this year, but remains resistant to the notion that the Big 12 offenses are so good that Oklahoma-whose coach made his way to the $4 million per year money train coaching defense-can’t hold the Jayhawks to under 491 yards.  South Florida held the Jayhawks to 60 less yards than the bevy of blue chippers in Norman, fyi. 

Finally, how good is Texas?  Damn good.  How’s that for genius insight? 

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ACC, BCS, Big 12, Darth Saban, PAC 10, SEC

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