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SATURDAY’S CARD: 4 GAMES OVER .500 AND 1 STEP AHEAD OF THE VIG

October 17, 2008 in ACC, ATS, BIG 10, Degenerate Gamblers, Foolmer, Joe Pa', Main Content, PAC 1 + 9, SEC, UGA, Vols | No comments

 

Show me a guy who’s afraid to look bad, and I’ll show you a guy you can beat every time.


  Thought you all would enjoy seeing who the now infamous “Joe the Plumber” roots for.  Like many of his mid-western peers, Joe, when he’s not cheering on the Buckeyes, is busy not paying his taxes and disliking all individuals who differ him.  To his credit, Joe’s disdain for fellow Americans is evenly disseminated along lines of politics, color, creed, ethnicity, religion and sporting affiliations. 

Fortunately, SNL is an epicurean and belongs to the “Joe Bottle of Cabernet” demographic and couldn’t care less.

About last night…1-1 ATS, winning with the FSU under and losing the BYU over.  Quickly…FSU appears to have lost a ton of talent from their 1990’s renaissance, especially at linebacker, DE, and WR…BYUfails the “eyeball test” in a colossal way.  SNL hasn’t seen a more pathetic group of noodle-armed, soup-bowl chested Latter Day Saints since last year’s BYU squad…gheesh.

The money pitch:

DISCLAIMER:  SNL, after being saved last week by going “all in” on Arkansas, will continue to post picks in order of perceived strength.  SNL knows that the “Sharp’s he apprenticed under,” like Vinnie “Hands” Randazzo, will mock the notion of rating picks and can already hear Vincenzo’s grating guinea-lecture, which will go something like:

“What are ya’? A f***in’ idiot? It’s either a pick or it ain’t you f***in’ moron.  Now get the f*** outta’ hea before you piss me off.”

Vincenzo’s admonitions, worthy (and frightening)  though they may be, are insufficient to derail SNL’s belief in this “weighted system.”  Enjoy.

Arkansas (+7.5) v. UK:  At some undetermined moment, some undetermined pundit is going to tell the unknown guy next to him “Arkansas has really improved.”  Don’t look at SNL, there’s no one else home right now.  That said SNL rode Petrino’s boys like a rented mule last week, and with UK’s problems (including but not limited to the loss of all-everything WR, Mr. Lyons), will do so again. 

Arkansas managed 420 balanced yards against a very good defensive unit last week.  Sure, Auburn is in disarray, quitting on their coaches, lamenting ‘Bama’s ascendancy, and likely to lose again soon.  But Arkansas is getting better by the week-they can pass, they can run, and they can cover this spread.  Might even be money-line material now that you mention it.

Miss St. (+7.5) v. UT:  For whatever reason, UT always reminds SNL of Dean Wormser’s great line in Animal House, when he tells Belushi “fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life son.”  No rhyme, reason, or cogent nexis for this, it just is.

Croom’s Bulldogs outgained Vandy last week nearly 2.5 yards to 1.  Before you go getting all “crunk” on SNL, you should now that MSU had only 247 total yards.  Still, this game is less about x’s, o’s, or coaches, than it is about 1 team with no expectations playing hard for its coach, and another team with high expectations which has thrown in the towel.  In fact, this game closely resembles the dynamic of the Arkie-Aub game last week, and we know how that turned out. 

Croom’s Bulldogs make it official, Fulmer is done.

Vandy at UGA (-14.5):  Like the poor kid with a lisp who goes to summer camp and inexplicably dates the hottie daughter of a neurosurgeon, Vandy lived a charmed life for about 5 weeks. Last in total offense, last in total defense, and still the “bell of the ball.”  Unfortunately, the Hahhvahd of the South is returning to its roots, which, when distilled to its core, means a return to a good school with a crummy football team that ranks last in total offense and total defense in the SEC.

Georgia, conversely, is an okay school with a good football team.  The Dawgs dominated UT last week but won by only 12 thanks to penalties and untimely turnovers while the paisley-panted Commodores put up 107 total yards on Miss St.  Must SNL drone on about how easy this game is?

Ohio St. (-4) at Mich. St.:  This game has more layers of goodness than Jennifer Aniston dressed for the winter.  A Sparty win exposes SC’s earlier win over OSU for what it is (not much) and ergo ispo facto will make OSU’s win over Joe Pa’s Lions next week all the more damaging.

Like their namesake, the Spartans have morphed into a land-force par excellence, capable of running and throwing with equal alacrity and, since Joe the Plumber hasn’t a clue what this means, the Buckeyes should be ripe for the picking. 

Here’s proof positive:

Memphis (+9) at ECU:  Why does it seem like only yesterday that Skip Holtz and not Will Muschamp was the hottest name in coaching?  Because it was.  SNL is proud to say that he never bought into the hype, primarily because he knew that: a) West Virginia was horrible; b) V. Tech was slightly better than West Virginia; and c) Skip Holtz is blood-kin of Lou Holtz (for you to ponder).

In the week’s since, ECU has lost to NCSU, Virginia and Houston.  A fairly precipitous demise by any objective measure and Memphis can score, and score, and score….take the points, you won’t regret it. 

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ACC, Degenerate Gamblers, Fulmer, SEC

WEEK 6 PICKS: 19-16-2 ATS

October 10, 2008 in ACC, ATS, Degenerate Gamblers, SEC, UGA, Vols | No comments

  After beginning the week with a 2-0-1 Thursday night card, SNL was lambasted Saturday (1-2) and ended up 3-3-1 for the week.  Hitting 50% will keep you “in the game,” (as will “Just for Men”) for awhile, but won’t put you in position for profligate (look it up) spending unless you are independently wealthy or an AIG executive.

So for SNL, like many of the teams it chronicles, week 6 is a time for introspection, a time to re-inventory strengths and weaknesses and embark on the second leg of a journey that leads to the promised land (which, for most of you degenerates, is drunk at the Bellagio with a stripper, but I digress).

How serendipitous it is then that this week’s card has provided investment opportunities that are far superior to those currently available on Wall Street, which means more or less that they won’t lose more than the 10% juice the book will charge you for playing. 

Finally, those of you who have achieved “degenerate status,” an elite club to be sure, know that there is no such thing as a “1000 star pick” or a “2000 star pick.”  All picks are created equal under the immutable laws of degeneracy.  Nonetheless, SNL will list the picks in order of strength, highest to lowest, for your ruminating pleasure. 

Our-Kansas (+19) at Auburn:  Hell of a week on the plains of Auburn, nursing a loss to Vandy (where the alums tie sweaters in loose knots and rape them ov3r their shoulders) and mourning the demise of your OC.  Yep, the War Eagles are out of the SEC race and should be a dispirited bunch this Saturday and, oh yeah, havent scored 19-points since posting 21 on LSU (only 14 by the offense).

That said this pick isn’t about you, Auburn!  Put your egocentrism and penchant self-agrandizement aside for once.  This pick is about Arkansas’ ability to move the ball through the air and the belief that Petrino’s Hawgs will be emboldened by last week’s 38-7 loss to Florida. 

Pick:  Hawgs (+19)

Notre Dame (+9) v. UNC:  SNL has gone against the Irish 12 times in the last 2 years for a 9-3 ATS record.  In fact, SNL has been banking on the ineptitude of the Irish for so long he doesn’t know how to pick any other way.  That said the Irish can score nowadays, and yes, get scored on more than a sorority girl on spring break. 

Still, UNC is playing with a back-up and hasn’t been nearly as dominant statistically as the final score of the UM and UConn games would have you believe.  SNL like the points and asks that you refrain from deluging him with e-mails ridiculing Charlie Weis’ corpulence.  He’s overweight, we get it.

Pick:  Notre Dame (+9)

Cocks v. UK (+3):  Vegas still loves the OBC, that much is obvious.  UK has a feisty bunch and they play hard, real hard.  The OBC, god bless him and his full head of hair, has fielded yet another schizophroenic club.  SNL likes the home doggie.

Pick:  UK (+3)

Oklahoma v. Texas (+7/o56.5):  The most interesting thing about this game is that we know both of these teams are good, but we don’t know how good.  Why?  Neither has played a ranked team to date.  So, SNL is banking on the fact that intense rivalries typically give rise to a heightened defensive intensity.  The offensive juggernauts are slowed a bit and SNL therefore likes the under.  A pick owed in significant part to the possibility of castration at the hands of either teams fans if you pick one side or the other.  

Pick:  OU/UT u56.5

Picks SNL likes enough to flirt with but not ask out:

UT (+13) over Georgia

Vandy (-2.5) over MSU

Sparty (-1.5) over NWU

Tags: ATS, Degenerate Gamblers, Picks

VANDY’S FUTURE v. UT’S PRESENT…

October 7, 2008 in Gators, Main Content, SEC, SEC Fans, Vols | No comments

2 weeks ago UT lost to Auburn.  Last week Vandy beat Auburn-fans who abhor change are likely to find this as unsettling as the current state of the global financial system.  And, for those who employ some sort of empirical system to rate the relative strengths and weaknesses of CFB teams, which is a dubious passion at best, Vandy’s success continues to be an enigma that rivals black holes, Stonehenge, and the popularity of American Idol as some of life’s greatest mysteries. 

In support of this assertion, SNL somewhat rigidly looks to the latests stats, which confirm that Vandy ranks at or near the bottom of every major statistical category on both offense ands defense except one:  Turnover margin.

SNL supposes the obvious nugget to be extrapolated is the hardly Socratean adage “turnovers lose (or win) games,” which we can expect to hear literally hundreds of times per week from the E-SPIN heads, writers and coaches on any given week with predictable mind-numbing effect.

Still, SNL cannot help but believe that Vandy’s best weapon, even today, is that it is difficult for teams to get excited when they play Vandy.  Vandy is now ranked in the top-20 and undefeated.  Nonetheless, SNL is looking forward to the game with the OBC’s Cocks than the Vandy matchup and presumes that this sentiment is shared by many, if not most, Gator fans.

This phenomenon, which is admittedly asinine by any objective measure given Vandy’s current success, has been embedded in the dark recesses of the SEC’s collective brain (yes, SNL realizes this term is subject to attack by way of “oxymoron”) since Vandy began showing up for beatdowns at SEC stadiums in @ 1991 (it was 1991, right?). 

Today, the attention-starved Commodores are gloating like a 7-year old with a new bike.  This, of course, is the natural progression for any contingent that has suffered years of hegemonic dominance at the hands of an infinitely more powerful and notorious rival that unexpectedly finds itself occupying the alpha-male vacuum left in the wake of its rival’s self-inflicted implosion.  To wit, the Vandy message board(s) (SNL has yet to locate more than 1) are rife with bowl projections, delusional recruiting aspirations, and wistful predictions of an SEC East title.

While SNL does not begrudge the Commodores understandable need to revel in the statistically improbable combination of their success and UT’s woes, the evidence seems to suggest that Vanderbilt’s fall from the ranks of the ranked will happen sooner than later.  In fact, Vandy will likely lose at least 4 of its remaining games-please note, this rosy prediction assumes that Vandy wins against Croom’s cerebrally challenged Bulldog’s this weekend, and later against Foolmer’s Vols.  Given Vandy’s penchant for cellar-dwelling, an 8-4 season constitutes an unparalleled success which should result in a New Year’s eve bowl game.  The true test, however, for Vandy and its fans will be in 2009 when the Commodores battle the foe that the heavyweight SEC programs have battled for decades: expectations. 

Now, about those Vols…

The Vols freefall has reached terminal velocity and shows no signs of slowing before the close of the casket that is the 2008 season.  Last week, the Vols manged to play Northern Illinois to a 3-3 tie at halftime, before surging to a 13-9 victory at Neyland Stadium.  In the process, the Vols managed 9 first downs (to N. Illinois’ 13) and around 230 yards of offense.  Rumor has it that the Vols players’ ability to catch, block, run, throw, and tackle was inhibited by the sun’s glare reflecting off the 35,000 or so empty seats in Neyland.

Absent a resurrection of biblical proportions, the Vols will not go bowling this year and the rumors of a booster-led coup to replace the floundering Fulmer regime at season’s end seem to be all that stands between Fulmer and a whiskey soaked mob of coon-skin wearing rocky toppers exacting their own brand of revenge.

For SNL, chronicling UT’s demise has been a sad affair.  Gone is the anticipation of the 3rd game of the season against a formidable foe, and in its place is another “expected win” which yields no upside from a national perspective, but carries with it the danger of a potentially season-derailing upset.   Things will change soon in Knoxville, they always do in this league.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Fulmer, SEC, Vandy, Vols

EARLY LOOK: FLORIDA v. LSU

October 6, 2008 in Gators, Main Content, SEC, SEC Fans, Saban, UGA, Vols | No comments

  Despite SNL’s ministrations in yesterday’s post, the Gator backers of the “Chicken Little” variety have all but forfeited this weekend’s contest with LSU.  The chat boards and call-in shows, propped up by the slothful of wit and feeble of heart, are rife with predictions of “a 20-point loss,” and hopes that “we [gators] don’t get embarassed.”  SNL, like a lighthouse on the sea of cowardice that currently floats the Gator fleet, is here to tell you that you are a bona fide  idiot if you don’t believe Florida can win this game.

Forget for a moment that Vegas has installed the Gators as 5-point favorites and turn to the empirical.  LSU is 4-0, with 3 nondescript home shellackings of cupcakes (yes, that includes you Miss St.), and one respectable victory on the plains of Auburn.  Because the Auburn victory is the most relevant in terms of talent and venue, this is where we look to prepare our case-in-chief.

Gators know that playing on The Plains at night is tough, this being the only venue that yielded a Gator-loss in 2006.  In a physical game LSU was able to prevail at Auburn 26-21.  In doing so, LSU racked up 398 total yards (220 passing and 178 rushing) and allowed 320 (250 passing and 70 rushing).  Those who witnessed this game can attest to the fact that the score was somewhat misleading as the defenses were largely stellar. 

SNL has oft-chronicled the futility of using transcendental comparisons to determine how good a particular team is, but this method comprises one of the few (ostensibly) objective means of comparison available and therefore, it is not just LSU’s victory on The Plains that must be considered, but what we’ve learned about both clubs in the weeks since.

Auburn has defeated UT by 2 at home (compare with UF’s 24-point road victory), and lost to Vandy by 1.  In those games, Auburn has averaged around 210 offensive (pun intended) yards.  The obvious inference is that LSU’s premiere victory came against one of the worst offensive clubs in CFB.

LSU has since posted a 34-24 home victory over Croom’s offensively incontinent Bulldogs.  There, LSU led 17-7 at halftime, and its defense gave up 300 yards and allowed MSU’s QB’s to complete 66% of their passes.  Nothing to be ashamed of in a game of relative insignificance, but hardly the statistical domination one would expect if, as many Gators believe, there exists no foreseeable scenario by which Florida can prevail over LSU in The Swamp this Saturday.  

The fact of the matter is that the Gator offense, warts and all, is by far the best offensive unit that LSU’s defense will face this year.  In fact, the Gator offense, even with its inarguable shortcomings to date, leads the SEC in scoring and Tebow, though occasionally inaccurate, leads the league in passer rating. 

Contrary to popular belief, the distillation process that underpins this week’s game does not tilt decidedly in LSU’s favor.  Florida is at home. Pope Meyer is a master at “circling the wagons” and LSU, while very, very good, has not played anyone outside of Auburn who posed even a credible threat.  Florida, in addition to a much tougher scehdule to date, is hungry, motivated, and knows that come Sunday, all perceived transgressions can be forgiven if they can defeat the Tigers this week. 

SNL will leave you all with a slightly revised quote by Rudyard Kipling in hopes that the dreary myopia currently gripping the Gator nation can be cured before 8:00 p.m. Saturday:

And the end of the fight is a tombstone white, with the name of the late deceased, And the epitaph drear: ‘A fool lies here who tried to Conquer the East.’

—So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Gators, LSU, Pope Urban, SEC

WEEK 5 CARD: NEVER MISUNDERESTIMATE SNL (16-11-2 YTD)

October 3, 2008 in Main Content, PAC 1 + 9, SEC, SEC Fans, UGA, Vols | No comments

SNL chronicled earlier the dearth (that means “lack”) of TV worthy games this week. Despite being poorly suited for the moving picture box, this week’s card represents yet another opportunity for those who worship at the Vegas altar to move a little closer to the stripper pole they want to install in the living room. This is what people want-right?

SNL, being of unimpeachable breeding, naturally aspires to greater heights, which is thinly veiled subterfuge for the fact that his women (okay, woman) will be demanding cash for antique housewares, romantic-comedy DVD’s, clothes, jewelry and other assorted items coveted by the finer gender-and men of questionable orientation-on Sunday.

With SNL’s digression (and a gratuitous pic) aside, we can now begin our regularly scheduled program…

USC at Ole Miss (-2):  This is the type of game that the ancient, grizzled man at the low end Vegas sportsbook, you know, the one with the god-awful stench of bargain brand cigarettes and a face with the look and feel of hand-tooled leather,  tells you is a classic “letdown.”  The broken-down degenerate then proceeds to pick up discarded tickets (the Vegas equivalent of checking payphones for quarters) and gives you, yes you, high-rolling up and coming yuppie, a look of disdain as you lay $110.00 on the slight home favorite.

Hubris, friends, is a dish best served “all day every day.”  Which is why the degenerate mean-mugging you for going with the far-better team is sifting through the trash and you’re laying a cool C-note on the game while you wait for your honey to come in from the mall across the street.

All you need to know is that Ole Miss is good and getting better-fairly explosive on offense and a great front 4.  South Carolina, conversely, is getting worse, and SNL has it on good authority that Spurrier has “lost” this team-hard to believe a 60-year old white dude who plays scratch golf lacks the “street cred” to motivate a team that boasts the “Cock” as its mascot, but there you have it.  Plus, SNL loves the Grove for the following reason:

hot-football-chicks.jpg

Ole Miss covers the low number-fuhhget about it…..

Maryland (-14) at Virginia:  SNL loves Maryland due to the divergence of focus between the media, who bore us all to tears with their “Maryland plays down to the level of competition” mantra, and the bloggers, who focus more on the number of chins Friedgen has on any given week.  Fortunately, this game is not one which requires a great deeal of analysis on either topic.  Why?  Because SNL has been touting UVA’s incompetence since the season began, he picked them to get crushed by Duke (which they did), Uconn (ditto) and the Trojans (ditto).  Maryland couldn’t play “down” to UVA’s level if they fielded a team of randomly picked frat-boys.  Maryland covers-easy, peasy, Japanezy.

****Auburn at Vandy (+4/o38):  This game, which airs at 6 on the deuce, should be about as exciting as last night’s debate between the hot stupid chick and the erudite (but boring) white dude with thinning hair.  That said, Auburn remains terrible on offense and Vandy remains…well…lucky.  Passing for about 65 yards a game and winning?  SNL predicts the following headline: “Auburn wins, 3-2!”  Take the under (38).

Other girls worth meeting at the club but not asking out on a formal date:

UCF -14 over SMU

Duke +13.5 at GTU

T.Tech -7.5 at K. State

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Degenerate Gamblers, SEC

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