BIG 10

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  The embedded video is the only solace we can find in this week’s card, which is dreadful by any objective measure, at least from a purely aesthetic point of view.  Sure, there are a few jewels for those who, like SNL, are investment minded.  But all in all, most are free to make it a “Blockbuster Night.”  Not casting stones, but a heartfelt thanks to the SEC for trotting out another round of exhibition games, that goes for you too beloved Gators.   

Another round of applause for the Michigan and OSU programs for making this rivalry the Big 10 equivalent of UT v. Vandy, a more or less regional rivalry of no interest to anyone outside of Michigan and Ohio. Seems like only yesterday that the nation was hand-wringing in anticipation of this game, with E-SPIN prodding us along with a 48 hour “Countdown” clock.  Ahh….to be young again. 

Well, flock, we can all sit here and lament this lost weekend of football or we can seek to replenish our depleted emotional reserves in the manner that all Americans aspire to:  Helping others?  Fighting on?  Leading by example?  Don’t make me laugh.   By gambling on football on using the winnings to purchase ridiculous brand name crap we don’t need.  Let’s go…

Texas A & M (-6) v. Baylor: This is the official “My other car is…” game.  The implication, naturally, is that those who place one of these bumper stickers on  their cars don’t have an “other car,” and if they do, it’s a piece of crap.  Here, Baylor is the other car.  So, let’s complete the puzzle for the hard-of-thinking… Baylor’s other car is a myth or a piece of crap.  Aggies and the 12th man roll.

Vandy at UT (-17):  Another rivalry that isn’t.  This game is, however, a testament to SNL’s depravity, which is boundless.  Seriously, SNL hates Layla Kiffin’s Husband and his putrid program, but love UT against the spread.  The lesson?  Glad you asked:  Money trumps hatred.  UT wins big and all the convenience stores in Knoxville close the minute the game is over. 

LSU at Ole Miss (o42):  Ole Miss remains enigmatic and, like a heavily marketed Nick Cage flick, always seems to disappoint.  Still, McCluster is on a tear and LSU’s wideouts should have some success against the Rebs (assuming Jefferson plays).  And, the number seems relatively low.  In other words, there’s alot of ways to get to 42 points, especially with Dex on the field. 

Final thoughts…a moment of silence for the PAC 1+9, which is dead from a national perspective.  Doubters of the veracity of this statement are encouraged to check tomorrow’s ratings for the ‘Zona v. Oregon matchup, will whill be lower than the Fox rerun of Cops.  Love ‘em or hate ‘em, USC’s national cache’ was the only thing that kept the PAC-10 in the national consciousness. 

As for the Boise, TCU, Cincinatti debacle…does anyone really care?  TCU certainly passes the eyeball test and could probably play with any on the top-3, but Cinci and Boise seem woefully inept on the defensive side of the ball and to make matter worse for the smurf-turf bunch, the schedule is laughable, not matter how big the MOV.  Naturally, Boise will play some BCS school that is under-motivated and disinterested, and might even win.  Following which the Boise allegiant will trumpet their program as the equal of any while the more rational towns folk scoff. 

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ATS, BCS, BIG 10, Boise, Degenerate Gamblers, Layla Kiffin, SEC, TCU, Urban Meyer

The pic is a gratuitous plug for hits, Layla can put fannies in the seats flock, and that’s a fact. 

After further review (wife is busy prepping for a baby shower), SNL is adding the following:

Iowa v. ‘Zona (o40.5)

Washington (+20)

So. Miss (-13.5)

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BIG 10, Degenerate Gambler, Layla Kiffin, PAC 1+9, Sarkisian

It’s official:  USc has dumped the always-the-bridesmaid-never-the bride Buckeyes, with a freshmen QB no less.  In typical fashion, The Vest was conservative, scared to let his QB throw the ball down field, and Coaching not to lose down the stretch.  His well-tanned counterpart, conversely, was pacing the sideline like Tiger Woods on Sunday at The Masters.  Erstwhile, Pryor was who we thought he was, a replica of Vince Young, incapable of making decisions under duress-at least good ones-and defaulting to his alleged “4.3 speed” to counter 11 Troajan defenders. 

Naturally, the Michael Vick eye black was missing, which probably played a role in Pryor’s karmic impotence, but the bottom line is that Pror is an athlete, who has reached his vocational zenith as a good-but-not-great college QB. 

In Gotham City, erstwhile, The Poodle will be tanning next to Will Ferrell, and The Vest will return to his (relatively) ignonymous existence as the HBC of the Buffalo Bills….err….Buckeyes. 

At least the Buckeyes covered the spread, upping SNL to 4-2 on the season.  Making lemons out of lemonade…

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ATS, BIG 10, Degenerate Gambler

  How great is this?

The Gator-Nation is obviously bored, its primary league rivals have been vanquished in shocking fashion and (as predicted by SNL) the national media has begun hyping Florida as the “best 1-loss team in the Country.” 

Looking toward Saturday’s contest against Vandy (who lost to Duke) provides little excitement for a fan base crashing from the endorphin-laced crushing of UGA.  Sure, the Gators will rally somewhat when the Cocks and the OBC roll into town, and put their game faces on when they go on the road to face the ‘Noles, but today, the Gators are spent.

The local airwaves continue to be rife with BCS permutations that place Florida in the BCS title game, which under normal circumstances would have SNL worrying incessantly about Florida looking past this week’s opponent, but that’s not going to happen when, as stated above, this week’s opponenent managed only 7 points in its recent loss at home to Duke. 

SNL has therefore opted to avail itself of the wistful winds that are blowing through Gator Country this week and somehow wound up wondering what if?  What if Urban wins his second BCS title in 4 years?  What if Tebow returns next year?  What if Florida is preseason #1 next year?  What about the year after that?

This line of thinking inevitably segued into a debate with a colleague and Notre Dame homer, who maintains that Florida remains a “regional team,” with little appeal nationally and a fairly limited sphere of longitudinal relevance. 

After some back and forth, I undermined this argument to my satisfaction, but feel that further explanation is warranted to preemptively combat this situation before it beomes a full blown pandemic. 

First, the so-called “national teams,”  which traditionally include USC, Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio State, and to a lesser extent, Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, and Penn State, earned this distinction primarily in the 60’s and 70’s.  Naturally, this group benefitted greatly from large fan bases which, coupled with television and lack of paradoy, gave them greater exposure than many southern schools, including Florida.  In the 70’s it was not uncommon for a fan living in the south to see Notre Dame on television 4 times in a season, but see Florida, Georgia, or LSU only once or twice. 

That said CFB has since morphed into a multi-billion dollar business, and college football games are televised 5 days per week and available on every major and cable network all day Saturday.  An indisputable corrolary to this is that recruiting is also a multi-million dollar business that takes place on a national scale, at least for the major programs.  What this translates into is choices for those fans who enter the CFB world as ”undecided voters.” 

The conclusion, which is likely to invite the ire of traditionalists like Beano Cook, is that the resume necessary to be considered a “national team” is drastically different than it was 35 years ago.  Sure, winning and losing remain constants, but rivalries and conference strength, which translate into more and higher profile photo ops for the best of the best, are equally important.  National titles are also important, but not as important as consistently receiving an invite to a BCS bowl. 

Whatever the criterium, the notion that only those teams who were considered “national powers” in 1975 are somehow legacies that remain the only members of this “national” fraternity is fatuous at best.  Today, there exists a fluidity to college football that was not present 30 years ago.  The vast amount of television exposure is such that the new CFB paradigm contemplates ascension to and descension from the so-called “national teams” based on a 5-year span of dominance or incompetence. 

Tennessee, which won the BCS in 1998,  is a prime example of this.  So are USC and Oklahoma, who re-entered the national consciousness after falling from grace in the 90’s.  Da’ U, who is all but entirely irrelevant after dominating the 90’s, is another example. 

For its part, Florida sits on the cusp of an SEC title, which would be its 8th since 1991, a possible NC, which would be its second in 4 years and 3rd in 11 years, and oh yeah, is poised to enter the preseason next year as one of the top-2 teams.  By any standards, this resume makes Florida a “national team.”  And, should Florida win the SEC, BCS, and enter next year as pre-season #1, it should and will be argued that Florida has become what USC was a few short years ago, the most dominant program in college football.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, BIG 10, PAC 1+9, Pope Urban, SEC

I hate the gayyy-turd's more than Barrack Hussein Bin Laden!
I hate the gayyy-turds!

It  was only a matter of time before SNL was forced to add his sing-song voice to the choir of those consumed by the Big 12 v. SEC debate. 

Most know that the debate has been rigidly framed as “SEC defenses v. Big 12 offenses.”  This is conventional wisdom and few have bothered to look beyond this paradigm when comparing the 2 conferences.
 
Lacking the resources and time of the pundits, and unconstrained by convention, SNL takes a more global position on this issue.  
The lynch-pin of the conventional argument rests squarely on the shoulders of the quarterback, which is universally and correctly held to be the most important position in football at any level.  The overall performance of teams with upper-classmen at the QB position is oft-dissected and needn’t be replodded here.  Suffice it to say, however, that national championship caliber teams are led by seasoned QB’s more often than not.  It is important to note that the QB need not be the best player on the team or a superstar, but only experienced enough to avoid costly mistakes and make a “play or two” at crucial moments.  Leinart, Flynn, Leak, Bradford, White, Wuerrfel and so on…. 
Most punidts and statisticians take this paradigm a step further by factoring defense for obvious reasons.  To be sure, teams with a junior or senior QB and stifling defense seem to have the best recipe to win the BCS. 
Lacking pocket protectors, slide rulers, and oddles of leisure time to painstakingly review satistics from year’s past, SNL will rely on the old-fashioned “eyeball test” to divide the teams in each conference into 4 categories:  1) Elite; 2) Very Good; 3) average to good; 4) bad. 
Using this admittedly subjective system, even the most subjuective SEC homer will conclude that this year, the Big 12 trumps the SEC by the slightest of margins.  Here’s why:
The  SEC in 2008 has three “elite clubs”:   ‘Bama, Georgia, and Florida.  The Big 12 has 2 or 3 depending on your distillation process, but we can all agree on OU and UT.  However, in the very good category, the SEC has 1 at best (LSU), and even this is debatable and contingent largely LSU’s ability to win out, which is far from likely.  The Big 12, conversely, has at least 3 teams that are very good, TTech, Okie St., and Mizzou. 
For those of you who believe the SEC’s depth is the difference and look to the “average” category for support, there is a ray of hope in the form of the remaining schools in each conference.  South Carolina (5-3) and Ole Miss (the best 4-4 club in the country), are average to good, and likely better than the remainder of the Big 12 teams, of which only Kansas can be considered average to good.  So the SEC gains 1 back here.  The most ardent SEC supporter could attempt to add Vandy here, but this contention is summarily dismissed when considering that Vandy managed to lost to DUKE at home. 
In the aggregate, 6 of 12 Big 12 schools are elite or very good.  This is at least 2 (and arguably 3) more than the SEC can muster this year.  In the average to good category, the SEC can place 2 to the Big 12’s 1, which still leaves a significant gap between the 2 conferences.   
Naturally, a normal “SEC year” would find UT and Auburn hovering at or near the top-15 in both ranking and total defense, with South Carolina and at least 1 “write-in,” such as Ole Miss, UK, or Arkansas, in the top-25.  It is therefore not as much the strength of the second-tier Big 12 schools that carries the day  as it is the weakness of prennial power schools, UT and Auburn, that tilts this argument in favor of the Big 12 this year.  
Looking forward, its safe to say that the SEC and Big 12 will annually represent the best and deepest conferences in the Country by far.  SNL neither needs nor wants a bevy of statistics to support either conference’s superiority over time, because none it matters in 2008. 
It is foolish to believe that the winner of this Saturday’s WLOCP has more than a slugger’s chance to reach the BCS title game in the wake of PSU’s victory.  That said there are serious ramifications for the loser, who will be effectively barred from an at-large BCS bid and therefore relegated to…..dare I say…Orlando for a New Year’s Day game against you guessed it, the Buckeyes!! 
That the SEC and Big 12 will place 2 teams apiece in the BCS seems self-evident.  ‘Bama, even with a regular season loss and an SEC title game loss, is a shoe-in for one, same goes for the East winner (assuming no further regular season losses).  Saturday’s loser, therefore, will be “black-balled” by the BCS-you can bet on it. 
Forget UGA’s sophomoric stomp last year, if Florida needs any motivation they need look no further than last year’s miserable trip to Orlando.  SNL says this not just becaused of the result, but because the stadium, nearby facilities, and atmosphere of this game were horrible.  There’s not a restaurant or bar within miles of the stadium, which looks like a reconstituted Orange Bowl minus the flooding urinals. 
For the love of God Timmie, win this game!!!!
-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, BIG 10, Big 12, SEC, UGA

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