Big 12

  SNL, like any ‘capper, has some golden rules regarding games that are worthy of its attention.  Among them are:  1) Don’t handicap a game unless you have seen each team play at least twice with its current personnel and coach; and 2) Don’t handicap a game that is the only game on the board without compelling reason.  Suffuce it to say that there exists no objective evidence that warrants abrogating these rules tomight.  Unless, of course, you find WVU’s fall from grace “compelling.”  Irrespective…

…the lack of objective findings  segues nicely into today’s WVU at CO game, which SNL likes for reasons that are as nebulous as those that made American Idol a pop culture fixture. 

As with any game, we begin with the line, which dropped  from 4.5 to 3.5 overnight, which is upsetting.  Installing Colorado, which admittedly struggled last week against Eastern Washington.  The obvious letdown by the Buffaloes following their 38-17 trouncing of in-state rival CSU notwithstanding, last week’s game against EWU provides some harbingers of hope for the erratic Buffaloes and their enigmatic Coach, Dan Hawkins. 

First, Colorado allowed only 47 yards rushing on 22 attempts (you do the math), and, after falling behind 21-7 at the half, outscored the “whatever-their-mascot-is” EWU squad 24-3 in the second half.  Factor in Colorado’s opening performance against CSU, in which the Buffs allowed 71 yards rushing, and it appears that this unit will be formidable against the run.

West Virginia, conversely, has been one of the big disappointments of the year thus far.  Fresh off their drubbing of Sooners and the frenzied, victory-induced hire of Rodriguez’ assistant, much was expected of this years Mountaineers.  The question facing this team is how will they respond after ECU’s emphatic beat-down, which quickly revitalized the chorus of doubters who questioned from the start the decision to hire Coach Stewart and made ECU the trendy “crush” of CFB pundits from sea to shining sea.

A closer look at the Mountaineers loss shows that they remain capable of rushing (179.0 against ECU), but of dubious capabilities when forced to pass (11-18 for 72 yards) against ECU.  Given Colorado’s apparent ability to play the run, there exists a reasonably likelihood that the passing game will be required to win tonight in Boulder. 

In a more global sense, tonight’s game is a referendum on two things:  1) Dan Hawkins, the once highly regarded HC of the resurgent Boise St. program, ability to make the Buffs marginally relevant on the national scene; and  2) Whether the departure of Rodriguez, coupled with the death of WVU’s seemingly realistic goals of a Big East and possibly, national title, will result in a team that is more likely to implode or rally as the season wears on.

Whatever the answer, the nation’s refusal to accept that WVU is a struggling program right now has resulted in the wrong team being favored tonight.  Hazarding an opinion based on intuition and the ECU debacle leads SNL to believe that the sublime force that was WVU is rapidly declining and, while Colorado can hardly be considered a hegemonic power in the Big 12, it is a program on the rise and will be playing for respectability. SNL looks for Colorado to cover this low number, if not win outright, in a frenzied atmosphere in Boulder.

Pick:  CO +3.5

-So Sayeth the Shepherd