Darth Saban

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cowbellBefore getting into an overly in-depth diatribe about why Gator fans should relax and stop worrying about Alabama (who is not on Florida’s schedule when last SNL checked), we at SNL would like to remind you that we were 4-0 last week ATS.  Naturally, we hid our boyish glee when visiting Vinnie and the boys in the back of Sal’s yesterday to collect our dough, but that’s because we’re scared of him, and not you (except for the ‘Bama fan who has been threatening to kill SNL and his family for the last couple of weeks). 

Moving on…the spin-doctors have been overtime since Florida’s narrow win as if the Arkansas game existed in a vacuum and is therefore the sole piece of relevant evidence available to predict how Florida’s season will end.  For most of the national heads (and some local), Florida’s bloody demise will occur at the hands of the Birmingham shock troops led by Nick Saban, which seems reasonable based on the available resume of both teams to date.  The more pedestrian analysts have trumpeted this mundane argument with little more than a ”scoreboard” thesis, noting that ‘Bama drummed Arkansas by 28 whereas Florida escaped with a 3-point win.  We here at SNL find this juvenile attempt to employ the transitive properties of victories and losses to be entertaining in the way that circus monkeys are entertaining, funny for a minute or two, but lacking the depth needed to keep asses in the seats. 

The smaller-and arguably less well-reasoned-camp maintains that Florida’s come from behind victory over the is signature win that St. Tim of Tebow needed to re-focus this team, the one shining moment we will all look back on when Florida hoists the BCS trophy for the second time in a row and third time in four years this January.   The logic of this argument too lacks any real presumptive force, and not just because it is largely espoused by ex-Gator players on local airwaves-most of whom peaked vocationally when they were gifted….errr…..”earned” their physical education degree from UF, but because the “miracle” win can more easily be construed as an indictment of Florida’s offense and defense.  The offensive woes are tolerable and all, SNL included, unapologetically believed before last Saturday that as long as St. Tebow and Pope Urban remained breathing, the offense would round into form at some point.  The defense was another story, it was our heart, where we Gators pointed when opposing fan bases derided this year’s team.  This is a little harder to do after the hyped Gator D gave up 188 yards in 3 possessions after taking a 13-10 lead last Saturday.  As above, Florida was missing some bodies on the line, but this year’s D continues tro be a very-good-but-far-from-dominant unit.  This is primarily due to the difficulty Florida has had with power runners fielded by Arkansas and Tennessee, which makes Ingram seem more frightening than Vinnie, but only slightly. 

The truth, as SNL told you on Saturday, was that Arkansas is much improved since their beatdown at ‘Bama, and Florida was lacking bodies on the D-Line and largely unfocused after winning a nationally telecasted game in Baton Rouge against a top-10 opponent.  It is therefore ridiculous to suggest that this year’s version of the Gators cannot, under any circumstances, beat ‘Bama.  Should Florida be favored over ‘Bama if the game was played this week?  Probably not.  Thankfully, we don’t have to worry about that yet. 

Dis and Dat…The Noles take their low-flying circus on the road to visit former Warden of Da’ U,  Butch Davis.  We haven’t capped this game yet, but we plant to.  Layla Kiffin’s effeminate hubby is still taking shots at Meyer, though their getting slightly more veiled.  This time, Layla’s boy-toy has gone out of his way to tell all within earshot that ‘Bama is clearly better than Florida.  Presumably, this assertion comes from Kiffin’s review of film?  Irrespective, Kiffin is still the crown-prince of a losing program and better still, Florida fans can openly root for ‘Bama to crush Kiffin’s Vols this week, since the Gators will get their shot at the Tide later.  And, Colin Cowherd, one of E-SPIN’s better radio personalities, just opined that the refs gave Florida the win last week.   Based on time remaining, down and distance, and other objective factors-like Tebow on the field-this opsition seems a little off-base, but keep winning and no one will remember either way.  Terrelle Pryor is taking heat from the Buckeye fan bas and quite frankly, looking more and more like an NFL receiver…

Next…Thursday’s pick and Layla Kiffin’s Husband’s dream come true, a scathing rebuke of his continued “ass-ness” by a blooger-this blogger in fact.   

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ATS, Bama, BCS, Darth Saban, Degenerate Gambler, DEGENERATES, Layla Kiffin, SEC, Urban Meyer, Vols

  Wife is at the movies and junior is napping, so let’s get to it.

Wisconsin (+16/47u) at The Vest: 

for the Vest, this game is like looking in one of those mirrors that makes you look ten pounds heavier, with Wisconsin being roughly the same team-philosophically speaking-as the Buckeyes are under the Vest’s stewardship .  So, the Vest should be in his comfort zone today when the cornfed Badgers roll into town.  Slothful of feet are those Badgers, and with only a mediocre passing attack, The Vest is the cerebral equal of his opponent for a change.  That said this number is little too high or put another way, Wisconsin isn’t that much fatter than OSU.  Take the generous points here and throw a bone on the under while you’re at it.  

Georgia Tech (+3) at FSU:  A week of turmoil for the ’Noles, who just can’t seem to run off Bowden-like the criminals at AIG, he’s just “too big” to fail.  The good nes for the ’Noles is that for 3.5 hours or so, they can stop hearing about how much they suck, which is considerable.  The bad news, the Yellow Jackets are technically sound and appear to be hitting their stride, and Bowden is still the Coach.  Wrong team favored, FSU implodes on itself like a dying star tonight.  GT +3.

Ole Miss (+5.5) v. ‘Bama:  Like his taller sibling, Meyer, Saban is a bit of a pill, a control freak who cannot relax and would refuse to sign your son’s hat if you saw him at a restaurant.  Also like Meyer, Saban is goood, real gooooooooooooood…  Nutt, conversely, seems like a fun guy parading around in his brim hat a la Greg Norman.  As for the X’s and O’s, Nutt’s D is salty and they have something to prove today, while ‘Bama just needs to win.  SNL loves getting the points at home and will also lay a little on the under.  Shop this one around because the line is between 4 and 5.5 depending on where you’re buying. 

Smaller plays:

Michigan/Iowa over 47

CSU (+9) over Utah

UCLA (+4) over Oregon

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

 

Tags: ACC, ATS, Darth Saban, Degenerate Gamblers, SEC, Urban

  SNL would like to begin by noting that the majority of his peers, in typical fashion, have moved past Florida’s dominating win over Alabama and are now scouting Oklahoma while making reservations in Miami on their Blackberry.  Sad, but true.  SNL’s attempts to stave off this laconic approach to Saturday’s game with the top-ranked team in the Country have been unavailing. 

More on that later.  Right now, SNL would like to revisit the “Speed v. Power” lexicon as it relates to tomorrow’s game, which has been embedded in the collective psyche of the print media since this matchup became a possibility.

The “thesis” of this post can be summed up as follows:  Florida’s so-called “spread” offense is deceiving and Florida  is every bit the power team that ‘Bama purports to be. 

To explore this contention, there must be a baseline by which the term “power team” is defined.  For SNL’s purposes, a power team is loosely defined as a run-oriented team which emphasizes ball control and field position with a dominant run game and a commensurately dominant defensive front 7.  A power team also excels in the red zone on both sides of the ball.

Using this loose definition as a baseline confirms that Florida is every bit the power-team that ‘Bama is albeit with faster players at the skill positions.  Those who contend otherwise seek support in the flimsiest of ways, which is by comparing and contrasting the base sets of the respective offenses; ‘Bama in the traditional power-I and Florida in the shotgun with receivers and backs all over the place.  The statistics, however, reveal how thin the veneer of this wooden contention is.

CATEGORY

TEAM A

TEAM B

Rush Offense

237 ypg

201 ypg

Yards Per Carry

6.2

4.82

Carries

459

502

Pass Efficiency Offense

#5

#52

Interception Percentage (per 100 attempts)

1.08%

2.15%

Red Zone offense

#9

#51

Red Zone Defense

#5

#58

Sacks allowed

#15

#21

3rd Down Conversion Defense

#15

#1

Sacks

2.5 per game

1.9 per game

Rushing TD’s

40

30

Percentage of plays run/pass

62.4%/37.6%

64.2%/35.8%

Team A, of course, is UF and Team B is ‘Bama.  For comparative purposes, it is useful to note that the foregoing chart is limited to statistics with relevance to the Power v. Speed argument.  There are more compelling statistics that lack overall relevance to this argument-such as total offense (UF #17/’Bama #53), Scoring Offense (UF #3/’Bama #28) and passing offense (UF #61/’Bama #97)-which generally favor UF.  

Irrespective, the conclusion to be drawn is that UF is a power running team which uses unconventional (at least by Bear Bryant standards) means to achieve this moniker.  Though lacking an Adre Smith or Antoine Caldwell, UF’s offensive line is deep, powerful, and more than capable of slugging it out with Cody & Co.  Likewise, UF’s defense is a unit capable of playing gap control against ‘Bama’s behemoths, which will force Parker-Wilson to take to the air early and often.

That said this is not a game to be taken lightly.  Saban is the coaching equivalent of a Sith Lord and will have his team amply prepared for this game.  Saban and his Visigoth hordes should be further motivated by the national media’s love of Florida and the 10-point spread assigned this game by the Vegas degenerates. 

So, while Florida may well prevail, this game will cause some angst amongst the Gator faithful and should end up very close to the Vegas number, let’s say Florida 33, ‘Bama 24.  See ya’ in South Beach playas’!

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, Darth Saban, Pope Meyer, SEC

Behold, “Nick Saban’s Drive-By Face-Punching Machine.”

  This,my friends, was poached from the site of a blogging colleague, without permission of course.  As a lawyer, this fact caused me to give pause, but only for a second.  Besides, we play things “fast and loose” in the blogosphere, and poaching from friendly sites is the right of anyone who opts to host a blog-err…I think.

Irrespective, this is a metaphor, and a relatively simple one at that.  It bears no further explanation, except for those of you who quit math after failing pre-algebra at the local community college.  Since SNL assumes this group is his primary demographic (though most of you are courteous enough to close your death threat e-amils with a nice “Sincerely” or “Regards,”  which SNL appreciates), he will add some insight.

met⋅a⋅phor –noun

  1.  a figure of speech in which a term or phrase is applied to something to which it is not literally applicable in order to suggest a resemblance, as in “A mighty fortress is our God.” Compare mixed metaphor, simile (def. 1).
2. something used, or regarded as being used, to represent something else; emblem; symbol.

What should be readily apparent to you by now is that Nick Saban does not really own, nor did he create, a “face-punching machine.”  Thus, the foregoing is what we city slicker types call a metaphor.  This one in particular is a metaphor pertaining to Alabama’s top-ranked football team in 2008. 

 Like the image itself, Alabama resembles (at times) a jalopy, puttering down the road at a top-speed of 20 mph.  Further similar to ‘Bama’s gridiron group, the Jalopy is unable to brake or accelerate in a manner that would impress even the most impressionable minds, and is in apparent need of some serious upgrades, both mechanically and aesthetically to boot. 

Due to its obvious impotence and lack of awe-inspiring attributes, unwitting bystanders, Like Les Miles, Phil Fulmer, Mark Richt and others of their ilk, allow the Jalopy to get up real close like, only to find themselves knocked unconscious seconds later by virtue of powerful and unforeseen blow to the head.

Thus, Gators, while you are free to continue to worship at the altars of E-SPIN, Mandel, and the blogosphere in general (most of which has Florida atop ‘Bama in the unofficial SEC power rankings and playing the Big 12 champ for the BCS crown), you would be wise to take heed of this metaphor.

SNL is well aware that ’Bama has done nothing impressive since posting 31 first-half points on UGA nearly 6 weeks ago, beating the likes of UK (by 3), Ole Miss (by 4), UT (by a whopping 20), and LSU (by 6 in OT).

Unlike the Gators Ferrari, which has averaged 50 points per game en route to dominating, “shock and awe” victories over Arkie (by 31), LSU (by 30, and it wasn’t even that close), UGA (by 39), and Vandy (by 28), ‘Bama’s jalopy ain’t got no “rims,” “boom,” “dubs,” “chrome,” or “bling.”  It also ain’t got no losses. 

So, while there’s no need to anticipate Pope Meyer’s furrowed brow being added to the foregoing metaphor, its far from a ga-rone-tee. 

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, Darth Saban, Pope Meyer, SEC

The BCS is officially upon us and most, if not all CFB apologists, have long been innoculated from shock induced by the first official BCS poll, which has been shown to be anything but an edict once the final whistle blows.

That said this year’s inaugural BCS poll has illuminated a frightening possibility:  Ohio State back in the BCS Title Game.  Yep, the Buckeyes, emphatic losers on the biggest stage to Florida, LSU, and most recently, USC, are but one of several one-loss teams with a plausible shot at making it to Miami this January.

For fans of 10th-ranked Florida, OSU’s ranking gives rise to quite a conundrum.  First, Florida must hope that the Buckeyes prevail over Joe Pa’s Lions this week as the Lions remaining schedule is miserable.  This too, however, comes with a significant downside as an OSU win further bolsters USC’s standing.  USC, like PSU, has a miserable schedule and should coast to 11-1, and like OSU, is ranked ahead of Florida. 

This peculiar melding of time, space, and prose, could devolve into a scathing indictment of the Buckeyes, who have (somewhat unfairly) become the Buffalo Bills of our time.  This wooden interpretation, however, sails wide right of the real culprit, the BCS and the resultant confusion for football purists, such as SNL.

For example, Florida fans must now root for FSU (ranked 25th), Alabama, and Georgia to bolster its strength of schedule and, oh yeah, try and win each game as convincingly as possible-which means kicking a late field goal if necessary to go up by 23 points (sorry Coach Shannon, this is big boy football). 

This scenario comprises the Rubik’s Cube that is the BCS, at least  for the contenders and their fans.  Long gone are simpler times, when a loyal foot soldier of the Gators could in good-faith hope for the ‘Noles entire team to simultaneously combust or pray for Da’ U’s cranksters to be sentenced to 15 to life after being ensnared in a reverse cocaine sting in Coconut Grove. 

Nope, today’s CFB landscape is rife with fleeting liaisons in early September that, like one night stands with your undergraduate neighbor, are interminable, at least until you move on to next season (or into a new apartment).  Each week’s scores comprise layers upon layers of comparative data, used to feed software created by dorks and harnessed into computer polls that distill a finished product that seems strangely without any empirical worth whatsoever (see Ohio State ranked above USC as Exhibit “A”). 

Naturally,  those who are forced to endure a season’s worth of dashed hopes, missed chances, and crushed dreams can channel this clusterf*** into a positive.  For example, fans of UM and the Vols can exalt in the fact that their suckitude is at least partly responsible for Florida’s lowly ranking.  Ditto for the entire PAC-10 excluding the Men of Troy. 

Irrespective, the sum of the BCS parts is to be villified for what it isn’t-an objective system that produces a champion by way of a playoff system.  Nonetheless, proponents for the current system remain (though many are in hiding from November through January).  Most vapidly tote the “its better than nothing” party line-the hell it is.  SNL, for one, would rather return to the days of conference bowl affiliations and split titles than allow this charade to continue unfettered.  Naturally, if Florida wins out and defeats an undefeated ‘Bama and by doing so reserves aspot opposite UT, OK, or USC in Miami, SNL will take it all back. 

ERSTWHILE……

The delicate balance between good and evil has been restored, albeit temporarily, as ‘Bama’s behemoth defensive tackle, Mount Cody, is expected to miss 2-4 weeks with an MCL sprain.  Naturally, this can be explained as simply “football,” or alternatively, a karmic event brought on by Darth Saban’s incessant pursuit of world domination.  Either way, The Hat is probably feeling a little better about now.

Mizzou and Texas Tech are much worse than advertised, SNL expects both to be ranked no higher than 20th when the dust settles and won’t be surprised if one or both are unranked at some point.

Boomer Sooner Defense has surrendered damn near 1,000 yards in its last 2 games.  SNL is well aware that the QB play in the Big 12 is superb this year, but remains resistant to the notion that the Big 12 offenses are so good that Oklahoma-whose coach made his way to the $4 million per year money train coaching defense-can’t hold the Jayhawks to under 491 yards.  South Florida held the Jayhawks to 60 less yards than the bevy of blue chippers in Norman, fyi. 

Finally, how good is Texas?  Damn good.  How’s that for genius insight? 

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ACC, BCS, Big 12, Darth Saban, PAC 10, SEC