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Gators v. Vols Recap or, Welcome to Flori-bama!

September 21, 2009 in BCS, Degenerate Gamblers, E-SPIN, Gators, Main Content, PAC 1 + 9 | No comments

tebow-volsIt was about this time last year when the Gator Nation was eating its own, attacking Meyer’s offensive acumen and lamenting the Gators desultory (here’s link for the thick of skull flock-members) offense and its inability to score points-alot of them.  This despite easy wins over Da’ U, Hawaii and those wascally Vols.  In the weeks that followed, Florida lost to Ole Miss, St. Tim of Tebow uttered the infamous  ”promise,” and Florida beheaded its remaining opponents like a medieval Monarch.   

Fueled by pre-season hype akin to “Beetle-Mania,” or so I’m told, a laughable pre-season slate, and Kiffin’s yapper, Saturday’s game against the suddenly-cool-to-hate-again Vols was going to be Florida’s Magnus Opus, a beating of biblical proportions meted out by the Orange and Blue Jesus, Tebow.  This game, circled on Gator calendars since Kiffin’s hire, was a statement game, pure and simple.  The statement, however, was not what the blood-lusting Gators wanted, but it’s probably the one they needed. 

First, let’s set out some basic facts.  It was obvious from the second quarter forward that UT could not beat Florida and it was equally obvious after 3 quarters that the Vols weren’t trying to beat Florida.  Florida punted only once and was a Tebow fumble away from posting 30 on UT.  Still, there’s no denying that on some level Kiffin got what he wanted, a “respectable” loss, and the Vol spin doctors are giddy with their “progress” under the Kiffin regime through 3 games.  Lost amidst UT’s euphoria are a couple of facts:  The Vols are 1-2 with a home loss to a PAC-10 team, and Florida is the top-ranked team and most consistent program in the country.  Framed as such Kiffin’s zeal in losing a not-as-close-as-it-seemed game to Florida (UT’s 4th consecutive loss to Florida) is more of an indictment of where his program is than the final score, however lopsided, could ever be.   In other words, the Vols are Ernie Els to Florida’s Tiger Woods.  Kapish?

For the Gators, it may be time to accept this year’s team for what it is, which is an excellent defense and an offense built around a power running game and make no mistake, Florida is a power running team no matter how many guys you see lining up at receivor.    If you look across the aisle Gator fan, you’ll see that your likely date in the A-T-L this year is fiendishly employing this same recipe albeit in slightly different fashion.  Darth Saban, whose Tide looks every bit the equal of Florida through 3 games, like Meyer, knows how to win.  Run.  Force turnovers.  Crush your opponents resolve with bone jarring hits on both sides of the ball.  For some, the transition may be difficult, the hi-fi pyro-technic display seared into our collective psyche by Harvin and Murphy put on last year was great.  Now, the Gator Nation is in effect breaking up with that really hot girl with a store-bought pair and questionable morals for the smart and pretty girl that you can present to the parentals without hesitation.  Sure, there will be the occasional E-SPIN highlight to satisfy the talking heads,  akin to a drunken make-out with your loose ex while your current is out of town, but you must stay the course!    In the end, the pretty and smart girl with a college degree and foresight is more than ample to get you where you want to be.  And, this years lo-fi edition can still do something that no other Gator team has ever done, win ALL of it’s games.  Do this and no one will remember that you didn’t beat Tennessee by 40 points.  A point which Meyer is well aware of. 

Moving on…SNL is 6-4 ATs through 3 weeks.  Left some easy winners on the table this week, but flock members who were around last year know that weeks 5 through 11 are where the coin is made.  FSUwas impressive and helped UF’s SOS with a dominant win over the Mormon hordes.  Maybe some of the ‘Noles will be “making it rain” in a strip club near you after all.  The Men of Troy, helmed by the Poodle, have blissfully let us all off the hook early this year, losing as a 19-point favorite at Washington.   For those who missed it, Jake Locker was phenomenal in the 4th-quarter.   Unlike year’s past, however, this year’s Trojans suck, predictable on offense, no playmakers at wideout.  Stay tuned, more losses to come, maybe SNL will start following the Poodle’s “tweets.”  LSU is getting better each week, and bye the bye, how impressive does LSU’s win at Washington look now? 

Coming soon……

Thurday’s Picks

Vincenzo’s Revenge

WHY SNL is smarter than you (wayyyyyyyyyy smarter, in fact)

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ATS, BCS, Degenerate Gamblers, Gators, LSU, Urban, Urban Meyer, Vandy

About last night…

September 4, 2009 in BCS, Degenerate Gamblers, Dr. Lou, E-SPIN | No comments

Night 1 is in the books and, thanks to a late play on Boise St., SNL owes Vinnie “Hands” Moresci only juice for last night’s action.  This if fortuitous because Vinnie is not exactly your three-piece suit sort of investment broker.  He’s more the “lays-pipe-at-the-docks-and-works-for-the-Local Teamsters 132″ sort, if you get my drift.  So, when Tuesday rolls around, you show up at “Sal’s Fine Italian Food” and meet Vinnie not with excuses about how you grew up watching Spurrier fill the air with footballs and ring up the scoreboard like a pinball machine, but with the money owed, or else.  In exchange, Vinnie will gurantee to timely pay your “investment” winnings when applicable, or refrain from breaking you face (no, seriously), as the case may be.

For those of you who weren’t here last year, SNL will restate some ground rules for college football “investing” that you’d be wise to follow:

1.  Establish a per game “investment amount” you can live with and stick to it no matter how strong or weak you thinkyour investment is and no matter how far up or down you are.  The easiest way to do this is to set a dollar amount for the season and divide this amount by the number of weeks (roughly 14).  Further divide you weekly allotment by the number of investments you want to make that week.  For internet investors, investments can be as little as $1.00, for4 those meeting scary Italians in the back of bars, its usually $25.00 to $50.00.

2.  Invest only 1/2 this amount during weeks 1 and 2.  This will allow you to gauge the actual strength and weakness of this year’s squads.

3.  Straight investments only-no excuses.  The margins for the house on parlays and teasers are much wider, which is bad for you.

4.  Do not “Chase”, i.e do not make an investment late in the day to compensate for earlier losses.  If you liked the play that ,uch, you should have placed the investments earlier.  Chasing will lead to your demise faster than any single mistake you can make.

5.  Remember, it’s a marathon not a sprint.  SNL did employ a winning investment strategy until his third year of CFB investing.  Since then, SNL’s investments have yielded an average of 46% ROI (i.e. $1,000.00 in investments will return $1,460.00 after paying juice on losses). 

Now, run along you silly kids!!

Tags: ATS, Degenerate Gambler, Degenerate Gamblers

Colt McCoy’s Mustache, RIP (And Week 1 Picks).

August 27, 2009 in ACC, ATS, BCS, Layla Kiffin, Main Content, SEC | 1 comment

 

SNL has been a big McCoy fan since the frail by comparison freshmen ascended to the Longhorn throne in the wake of In-Vince-able’s tenure of dominance.  As my many laudits have noted, the name “Colt McCoy” conjures up visions of the legendary Texas heroes that valantly defended The Alamo in 1836.  Indeed, Colt McCoy’s quarterbacking of the ‘Horns was no doubt decreed by a higher power, and SNL remains respectful of this edict in a non-denominational sorta way. 

That said what is up with the lip warmer?  SNL, like most, is mindful if not appreciative of the group of offensive linemen who shave their heads or grow unseemly facial hair as a show of solidarity.  In context, even body painting is an acceptable public display.  But quarterbacks, especially quarterbacks at flagship universities, are not free to join their burly peers in such displays.  This is because our quarterbacks, from Tebow to Leinart, McCoy to  Bradford, are the CFB equivalent of male leads in our favorite action movies.  They are Russel Crowe in “Gladiator,” Daniel Craig as James Bond, Brad Pitt in the (awesome) “Inglorious Bastards.” 

In sum, the quarterback is a swashbuckling free spirit, envied by men and loved by women.  He does not always drink beer, but he does, its a Dos Equis.  Not that Colt is doing to shabby with the ladies.  So SNL will risk being impolitic to state the obvious:  Colt’s mustache looks as gay as gay can possibly get, times 2 (Not that there’s anything wrong with it).  My neighbor grew a mustache like this over the summer in eighth grade because “it showed the girls he had pubes.”  We all assume you have pubes, Colt, so good riddance to the ’stache. 

Now let’s move on to  2009’s CFB Investment Portfolio…

Week 1 Leans (YTD 0-0-0):

NC St. v. South Carolina (+4/46u):  Spurrier has become increasingly tight-lipped since beginning his tenure as the head of Gamecocks (no pun intended degenerates).  But the word on the street is that Garcia has improved and South Carolina has recruited well.  So, while the fun of Spurrier’s hubris has faded some-like Jessica Simpson’s beauty-she’s still hotter than YOUR girlfrined and Spurrier is better than YOUR coach (unless you’re a Gator, Sooner,Longhorn, Trojan, Tide, Tiger of the LSU variety, Razorback, Rebel, Bulldog, or…..ok, this could go on awhile, but you get the point).  On the other side of the ball is an angry red-headed dude, who is CFB’s equivalent of Tom Coughlin.  Which means he’s tough to like, but the man can coach.  SNL sees little value in the side here, but would take the doggie if the “sharps” push it up to 5.5.  However, there will be present on that fine evening in North Carolina a good qb, an average qb, and a great qb coach who loves to throw, even when his qb sucks.  In addition, this is the opening game of the season, which means boozing and gambling are essentially mandatory (If SNL weren’t married, there’d be more “mandatory” proclivities, but I digress).  OVER the number is the lean here, contingent, naturally, on the weather and late breaking injury news. 

Tulsa (-14) at Tulane:  SNL posted this just to see how many of you degenerates would look.  This game sucks by any objective measure and anyone wagering on this who is  not an alumnus or current student at these schools should be housed at Gitmo with the rest of the infidels-or are we the infidels?  Irrespective, if you’re wagering on this game, take a look in the mirror and think about what you’ve become. 

Georgia (+6/61u) v. Okie State:  Okie State is the chicest “darkhorse” this side of Oxford, but SNL ain’t buying what the E-SPIN heads are selling.  In the back of smoke-filled rooms in Vegas men with names like Randazzo, Moresci, and DePazz have determined that UGA’s loss of Stafford and Moreno is beginning of the end for this proud program.  SNL does not believe this to be true and will put at risk his fine, ok dubious, reputation on the line to sway flock members on the fence about this one.  I love the doggies here, figuratively and literally in this case.  Even better, the line should be full touchdown or more by the time the good folks at internet gambling sites post their spreads.  You hardcore degenerates may want to play a little bit with the money line here. 

Other leans that are smaller, but nicely shaped:

UK (+28.5) v. UT:  The Vegas must know something SNL doesn’t.  SNL does know, however, that Layla Kiffin is hot and her husband is a bit of an ass.  Still, he looks a little like Gruden, which amuses, and SNL is looking forward seeing UT return to respectability (SEC baby, Bros before Hoes).  Even so, this number is way to high unless, of course, Layla is on the sidelines in a bikini.  In which case, SNL will be the first to tell you , “there’s more to life than football, son.” 

Mizzou (+7) v. Illinois:  True, Zook is a bit of goofball.  But dammit, he used to be OUR goofball and I’ll be damned if I’m gonna sit here and listen to you…..had you didn’t I?  Zook’s ineptitude is no match for his offensive talent.  Ergo, SNL looks for Offensive talent to defeat Zooks bumbling mediocrity (and the defanged Wildcats of ”Mizzura’”) by 2 touchdowns. Lay the number fearlessly and start the year playing with house money.

As always, witty observations and scathing criticisms are welcome.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, Degenerate Gamblers, Layla Kiffin, SEC, Zook

FINAL THOUGHTS: UK v. UF, SATURDAY’S PICKS, AND A YOUTUBE JEWEL

October 25, 2008 in ACC, ATS, BCS, Degenerate Gamblers, Fans, Gators, LSU, Main Content, Pope Meyer, SEC, The Hat, UGA | No comments

“Act like a man of thought – Think like a man of action.” -

  Not much left to say about UF v. UK.  The mood surrounding the stadium remains unchanged, the fans are essentially making “an appearance” at The Swamp and making plans to meet at one of the nearby watering holes at halftime. 

Crying baby and absent wife, so here’s a brief synopsis of Saturday’s investment opportunities:

Wake at Da’ U (+3/41o):  Wake rebounds here-Skinner has nice day and this game goes over the number-easy, peezy, japaneezy.  Shannon kicks late field goal for 27-21 win and thanks Urban Meyer afterward.  Like da’ Canes and Da’ over.

T. Tech v. Kansas (pk/67o):   Welcome to the Big 12, where the teams score on each other like drunken greeks on spring break.  Over, over, over.

Okie St. at UT (-13/670o):  If UT wins another blowout, they should be placed in the NFL by plebiscite.  Okie and points-I’m a man!!!

Arkansas (+6/56o) v. Ole Miss:  Nitt’s wild ride continues…Hawg’s cover the number, Nutt wins a close one, and Florida’s SOS is minutely improved. 

Georgia v. LSU (-1/51o):  Posed on this game earlier.  Brief recapitulation:  Georgia struggles to run and pass, LSU struggles to run and pass, see Gerogia and LSU struggle to run and pass.  Final score 23-20, Dawgs or Tigers win-take the under.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ATS, Degenerate Gamblers, SEC

SATURDAY’S CARD: 4 GAMES OVER .500 AND 1 STEP AHEAD OF THE VIG

October 17, 2008 in ACC, ATS, BIG 10, Degenerate Gamblers, Foolmer, Joe Pa', Main Content, PAC 1 + 9, SEC, UGA, Vols | No comments

 

Show me a guy who’s afraid to look bad, and I’ll show you a guy you can beat every time.


  Thought you all would enjoy seeing who the now infamous “Joe the Plumber” roots for.  Like many of his mid-western peers, Joe, when he’s not cheering on the Buckeyes, is busy not paying his taxes and disliking all individuals who differ him.  To his credit, Joe’s disdain for fellow Americans is evenly disseminated along lines of politics, color, creed, ethnicity, religion and sporting affiliations. 

Fortunately, SNL is an epicurean and belongs to the “Joe Bottle of Cabernet” demographic and couldn’t care less.

About last night…1-1 ATS, winning with the FSU under and losing the BYU over.  Quickly…FSU appears to have lost a ton of talent from their 1990’s renaissance, especially at linebacker, DE, and WR…BYUfails the “eyeball test” in a colossal way.  SNL hasn’t seen a more pathetic group of noodle-armed, soup-bowl chested Latter Day Saints since last year’s BYU squad…gheesh.

The money pitch:

DISCLAIMER:  SNL, after being saved last week by going “all in” on Arkansas, will continue to post picks in order of perceived strength.  SNL knows that the “Sharp’s he apprenticed under,” like Vinnie “Hands” Randazzo, will mock the notion of rating picks and can already hear Vincenzo’s grating guinea-lecture, which will go something like:

“What are ya’? A f***in’ idiot? It’s either a pick or it ain’t you f***in’ moron.  Now get the f*** outta’ hea before you piss me off.”

Vincenzo’s admonitions, worthy (and frightening)  though they may be, are insufficient to derail SNL’s belief in this “weighted system.”  Enjoy.

Arkansas (+7.5) v. UK:  At some undetermined moment, some undetermined pundit is going to tell the unknown guy next to him “Arkansas has really improved.”  Don’t look at SNL, there’s no one else home right now.  That said SNL rode Petrino’s boys like a rented mule last week, and with UK’s problems (including but not limited to the loss of all-everything WR, Mr. Lyons), will do so again. 

Arkansas managed 420 balanced yards against a very good defensive unit last week.  Sure, Auburn is in disarray, quitting on their coaches, lamenting ‘Bama’s ascendancy, and likely to lose again soon.  But Arkansas is getting better by the week-they can pass, they can run, and they can cover this spread.  Might even be money-line material now that you mention it.

Miss St. (+7.5) v. UT:  For whatever reason, UT always reminds SNL of Dean Wormser’s great line in Animal House, when he tells Belushi “fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life son.”  No rhyme, reason, or cogent nexis for this, it just is.

Croom’s Bulldogs outgained Vandy last week nearly 2.5 yards to 1.  Before you go getting all “crunk” on SNL, you should now that MSU had only 247 total yards.  Still, this game is less about x’s, o’s, or coaches, than it is about 1 team with no expectations playing hard for its coach, and another team with high expectations which has thrown in the towel.  In fact, this game closely resembles the dynamic of the Arkie-Aub game last week, and we know how that turned out. 

Croom’s Bulldogs make it official, Fulmer is done.

Vandy at UGA (-14.5):  Like the poor kid with a lisp who goes to summer camp and inexplicably dates the hottie daughter of a neurosurgeon, Vandy lived a charmed life for about 5 weeks. Last in total offense, last in total defense, and still the “bell of the ball.”  Unfortunately, the Hahhvahd of the South is returning to its roots, which, when distilled to its core, means a return to a good school with a crummy football team that ranks last in total offense and total defense in the SEC.

Georgia, conversely, is an okay school with a good football team.  The Dawgs dominated UT last week but won by only 12 thanks to penalties and untimely turnovers while the paisley-panted Commodores put up 107 total yards on Miss St.  Must SNL drone on about how easy this game is?

Ohio St. (-4) at Mich. St.:  This game has more layers of goodness than Jennifer Aniston dressed for the winter.  A Sparty win exposes SC’s earlier win over OSU for what it is (not much) and ergo ispo facto will make OSU’s win over Joe Pa’s Lions next week all the more damaging.

Like their namesake, the Spartans have morphed into a land-force par excellence, capable of running and throwing with equal alacrity and, since Joe the Plumber hasn’t a clue what this means, the Buckeyes should be ripe for the picking. 

Here’s proof positive:

Memphis (+9) at ECU:  Why does it seem like only yesterday that Skip Holtz and not Will Muschamp was the hottest name in coaching?  Because it was.  SNL is proud to say that he never bought into the hype, primarily because he knew that: a) West Virginia was horrible; b) V. Tech was slightly better than West Virginia; and c) Skip Holtz is blood-kin of Lou Holtz (for you to ponder).

In the week’s since, ECU has lost to NCSU, Virginia and Houston.  A fairly precipitous demise by any objective measure and Memphis can score, and score, and score….take the points, you won’t regret it. 

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ACC, Degenerate Gamblers, Fulmer, SEC

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