DEGENERATES

Before launching into Thursday’s picks, let’s clear the air.  SNL was 2-2 last week ATS.  Shame, humiliation, fear of repraisal from Vinny “the hands” Randazzo who “lost big,” have dominated SNL’s waking moments since.  The mediocrity that plagues SNL’s overall record, however, is in stark contrast to SNL’s Thursday/Friday record, which is 5-0-1.  So, this week’s plan is to hit the book hard tonight and, like the investment gurus, enagage in some “profit taking” before moving forward with any new investment opportunities.  Let’s do this…

FSU (-11/o48) at NCSU:  4-1 FSU has found a new identity as the official “3 yards and a pile of dust” University, rushing for over 250 yards in victories over Miami and Colorado.  Gone is the fast-break that carried the ‘Noles to national prominence in the 90’s and in its stead lies an offense that would make Vince Dooley proud.  

On the other side of the ball, FSU looks more like its old square-jawed self, holding conference opponents to about 50 yards per game rushing and in the words of the warm anf fuzzy Mickey Andrews, “gettin’s after the quarterback purty good.” 

Erstwhile, NCSU, beset by injuries, appears to be frantically battling the Terps in the “unpredictable” category, beating then 15th-ranked ECU, losing 41-10 to USF, and losing in OT to BC.  However, appearances can be deceiving as there is nothing unpredictable about NCSU, which has struggled since losing its starting QB, being outgained by nearly 300 yards by both USF and BC, albeit with dramitically different final scores.  Score notwithstanding, the “eyeball test” reveals that NCSU was dominated in both games and is struggling on offense.

There are, however, some wild cards in NCSU’s favor:  1) O’Brien is a good coach and is more than capable of a game plan that will keep this thing close; 2) It’s Thursday night-when SNL last checked, double-digit home dogs covered almost 75% of the time in this time slot; and 3) FSU still hasn’t shown that they can throw when called upon to do so against a decent defense (which NCSU isn’t, but not by much)..

The tea leaves therefore, reveal a low scoring affair with the ‘Noles winning by 10-13 points.  Naturally, this makes the line about right.  However, there seems to be some value in the total here by virtue of FSU’s last game (41-39 over Da’ U) and NCSU’s last game (38-31 loss to BC).  SNL therefore, makes this a small (emphasis added) play on the under.

BYU (-1/o45) v. TCU:  Fans from every part of the counrty will be rooting against the Latter Day Saints tonight, and with good reason.  TCU is one of only two teams with a chance to derail the Mormon’s run into the BCS mix.  While SNL sees no real downside to BYU playing against a Big East Champ in the BCS, aside from a possible pollution of the homogenous BYU bloodline, this slot would arguably be better filled by a 2 loss heavyweight from a power conference.

Here’s the quick and dirty-no one runs on TCU. Period.  The mighty Sooners rushed for only 25 yards on the Frogs, which should be enough for you stat-hounds to agree with this contention.  TCU also fields a balanced offense, which features multiple formations and plenty of skill.

BYU has also been salty on defense, pitching 2 shutouts and giving up more than 17 points in only 1 game (out of 6).  It doesn’t take Ms. Cleo to see that this game is all about the pass.  The clock will stop plenty and both teams can be expected to throw the ball about 70% of the time.  In addition, Vegas has factored in the last outing for both teams (BYU 21-3 over New Mexico and TCU 13-7 over Colorado St.) into the total, which is a reasonable 45.  So, when the final whistle blows, SNL likes these teams to go over the relatively low number-something in the range of 28-24 sounds about right.

Now, go out and buy yourself something cheap you scamps!!

-So Sayeth the Shepherd