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SATURDAY’S CARD: 4 GAMES OVER .500 AND 1 STEP AHEAD OF THE VIG

October 17, 2008 in ACC, ATS, BIG 10, Degenerate Gamblers, Foolmer, Joe Pa', Main Content, PAC 1 + 9, SEC, UGA, Vols | No comments

 

Show me a guy who’s afraid to look bad, and I’ll show you a guy you can beat every time.


  Thought you all would enjoy seeing who the now infamous “Joe the Plumber” roots for.  Like many of his mid-western peers, Joe, when he’s not cheering on the Buckeyes, is busy not paying his taxes and disliking all individuals who differ him.  To his credit, Joe’s disdain for fellow Americans is evenly disseminated along lines of politics, color, creed, ethnicity, religion and sporting affiliations. 

Fortunately, SNL is an epicurean and belongs to the “Joe Bottle of Cabernet” demographic and couldn’t care less.

About last night…1-1 ATS, winning with the FSU under and losing the BYU over.  Quickly…FSU appears to have lost a ton of talent from their 1990’s renaissance, especially at linebacker, DE, and WR…BYUfails the “eyeball test” in a colossal way.  SNL hasn’t seen a more pathetic group of noodle-armed, soup-bowl chested Latter Day Saints since last year’s BYU squad…gheesh.

The money pitch:

DISCLAIMER:  SNL, after being saved last week by going “all in” on Arkansas, will continue to post picks in order of perceived strength.  SNL knows that the “Sharp’s he apprenticed under,” like Vinnie “Hands” Randazzo, will mock the notion of rating picks and can already hear Vincenzo’s grating guinea-lecture, which will go something like:

“What are ya’? A f***in’ idiot? It’s either a pick or it ain’t you f***in’ moron.  Now get the f*** outta’ hea before you piss me off.”

Vincenzo’s admonitions, worthy (and frightening)  though they may be, are insufficient to derail SNL’s belief in this “weighted system.”  Enjoy.

Arkansas (+7.5) v. UK:  At some undetermined moment, some undetermined pundit is going to tell the unknown guy next to him “Arkansas has really improved.”  Don’t look at SNL, there’s no one else home right now.  That said SNL rode Petrino’s boys like a rented mule last week, and with UK’s problems (including but not limited to the loss of all-everything WR, Mr. Lyons), will do so again. 

Arkansas managed 420 balanced yards against a very good defensive unit last week.  Sure, Auburn is in disarray, quitting on their coaches, lamenting ‘Bama’s ascendancy, and likely to lose again soon.  But Arkansas is getting better by the week-they can pass, they can run, and they can cover this spread.  Might even be money-line material now that you mention it.

Miss St. (+7.5) v. UT:  For whatever reason, UT always reminds SNL of Dean Wormser’s great line in Animal House, when he tells Belushi “fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life son.”  No rhyme, reason, or cogent nexis for this, it just is.

Croom’s Bulldogs outgained Vandy last week nearly 2.5 yards to 1.  Before you go getting all “crunk” on SNL, you should now that MSU had only 247 total yards.  Still, this game is less about x’s, o’s, or coaches, than it is about 1 team with no expectations playing hard for its coach, and another team with high expectations which has thrown in the towel.  In fact, this game closely resembles the dynamic of the Arkie-Aub game last week, and we know how that turned out. 

Croom’s Bulldogs make it official, Fulmer is done.

Vandy at UGA (-14.5):  Like the poor kid with a lisp who goes to summer camp and inexplicably dates the hottie daughter of a neurosurgeon, Vandy lived a charmed life for about 5 weeks. Last in total offense, last in total defense, and still the “bell of the ball.”  Unfortunately, the Hahhvahd of the South is returning to its roots, which, when distilled to its core, means a return to a good school with a crummy football team that ranks last in total offense and total defense in the SEC.

Georgia, conversely, is an okay school with a good football team.  The Dawgs dominated UT last week but won by only 12 thanks to penalties and untimely turnovers while the paisley-panted Commodores put up 107 total yards on Miss St.  Must SNL drone on about how easy this game is?

Ohio St. (-4) at Mich. St.:  This game has more layers of goodness than Jennifer Aniston dressed for the winter.  A Sparty win exposes SC’s earlier win over OSU for what it is (not much) and ergo ispo facto will make OSU’s win over Joe Pa’s Lions next week all the more damaging.

Like their namesake, the Spartans have morphed into a land-force par excellence, capable of running and throwing with equal alacrity and, since Joe the Plumber hasn’t a clue what this means, the Buckeyes should be ripe for the picking. 

Here’s proof positive:

Memphis (+9) at ECU:  Why does it seem like only yesterday that Skip Holtz and not Will Muschamp was the hottest name in coaching?  Because it was.  SNL is proud to say that he never bought into the hype, primarily because he knew that: a) West Virginia was horrible; b) V. Tech was slightly better than West Virginia; and c) Skip Holtz is blood-kin of Lou Holtz (for you to ponder).

In the week’s since, ECU has lost to NCSU, Virginia and Houston.  A fairly precipitous demise by any objective measure and Memphis can score, and score, and score….take the points, you won’t regret it. 

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ACC, Degenerate Gamblers, Fulmer, SEC

VANDY’S FUTURE v. UT’S PRESENT…

October 7, 2008 in Gators, Main Content, SEC, SEC Fans, Vols | No comments

2 weeks ago UT lost to Auburn.  Last week Vandy beat Auburn-fans who abhor change are likely to find this as unsettling as the current state of the global financial system.  And, for those who employ some sort of empirical system to rate the relative strengths and weaknesses of CFB teams, which is a dubious passion at best, Vandy’s success continues to be an enigma that rivals black holes, Stonehenge, and the popularity of American Idol as some of life’s greatest mysteries. 

In support of this assertion, SNL somewhat rigidly looks to the latests stats, which confirm that Vandy ranks at or near the bottom of every major statistical category on both offense ands defense except one:  Turnover margin.

SNL supposes the obvious nugget to be extrapolated is the hardly Socratean adage “turnovers lose (or win) games,” which we can expect to hear literally hundreds of times per week from the E-SPIN heads, writers and coaches on any given week with predictable mind-numbing effect.

Still, SNL cannot help but believe that Vandy’s best weapon, even today, is that it is difficult for teams to get excited when they play Vandy.  Vandy is now ranked in the top-20 and undefeated.  Nonetheless, SNL is looking forward to the game with the OBC’s Cocks than the Vandy matchup and presumes that this sentiment is shared by many, if not most, Gator fans.

This phenomenon, which is admittedly asinine by any objective measure given Vandy’s current success, has been embedded in the dark recesses of the SEC’s collective brain (yes, SNL realizes this term is subject to attack by way of “oxymoron”) since Vandy began showing up for beatdowns at SEC stadiums in @ 1991 (it was 1991, right?). 

Today, the attention-starved Commodores are gloating like a 7-year old with a new bike.  This, of course, is the natural progression for any contingent that has suffered years of hegemonic dominance at the hands of an infinitely more powerful and notorious rival that unexpectedly finds itself occupying the alpha-male vacuum left in the wake of its rival’s self-inflicted implosion.  To wit, the Vandy message board(s) (SNL has yet to locate more than 1) are rife with bowl projections, delusional recruiting aspirations, and wistful predictions of an SEC East title.

While SNL does not begrudge the Commodores understandable need to revel in the statistically improbable combination of their success and UT’s woes, the evidence seems to suggest that Vanderbilt’s fall from the ranks of the ranked will happen sooner than later.  In fact, Vandy will likely lose at least 4 of its remaining games-please note, this rosy prediction assumes that Vandy wins against Croom’s cerebrally challenged Bulldog’s this weekend, and later against Foolmer’s Vols.  Given Vandy’s penchant for cellar-dwelling, an 8-4 season constitutes an unparalleled success which should result in a New Year’s eve bowl game.  The true test, however, for Vandy and its fans will be in 2009 when the Commodores battle the foe that the heavyweight SEC programs have battled for decades: expectations. 

Now, about those Vols…

The Vols freefall has reached terminal velocity and shows no signs of slowing before the close of the casket that is the 2008 season.  Last week, the Vols manged to play Northern Illinois to a 3-3 tie at halftime, before surging to a 13-9 victory at Neyland Stadium.  In the process, the Vols managed 9 first downs (to N. Illinois’ 13) and around 230 yards of offense.  Rumor has it that the Vols players’ ability to catch, block, run, throw, and tackle was inhibited by the sun’s glare reflecting off the 35,000 or so empty seats in Neyland.

Absent a resurrection of biblical proportions, the Vols will not go bowling this year and the rumors of a booster-led coup to replace the floundering Fulmer regime at season’s end seem to be all that stands between Fulmer and a whiskey soaked mob of coon-skin wearing rocky toppers exacting their own brand of revenge.

For SNL, chronicling UT’s demise has been a sad affair.  Gone is the anticipation of the 3rd game of the season against a formidable foe, and in its place is another “expected win” which yields no upside from a national perspective, but carries with it the danger of a potentially season-derailing upset.   Things will change soon in Knoxville, they always do in this league.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Fulmer, SEC, Vandy, Vols

THE DEATH OF A RIVAL AND UF’S 2008 HOROSCOPE

September 22, 2008 in Main Content, SEC, Vols | No comments

  As one might imagine, if one were allowed to imagine football by one’s significant other, the UT chatboards are literally overflowing with calls for Fulmer’s resignation and at least one man has been arrested for setting his home afire in a poorly thought out (and doubtless whiskey-fueled) attempt to burn Fulmer in effigy.  SNL knows that the more calous among you, whose antipathy toward Gator opponents is embedded so deeply in your reptilian  brain you are incapable of even considering the lamentations of opposing fans, will probably lagh at this man’s misfortune which doubtless arose from his decision to use a life-size effigy.  

While this is a logical deduction, SNL has chosen a higher, and therefore morally superior, road and chooses instead to mourn for the loss of the Gators now former rival, the Volunteers, which have been vanquished in Vandy-ish fashion for 4 years running. 

For the lifelong Gator fan, the “noise in the system” in Knoxville is eerily similar to the cacophonous clamoring for Zook’s head after Ole Miss handled the Gators in The Swamp in 2004.  Let there be no doubt, Fulmer is already “constructively terminated” following Saturday’s humiliation, which included a number of gaffes that seem to epitomize that satire that “Fool-mer” has become in Tennessee.  According to my blogging idol, Dr. Saturday, the national pundits seem to agree:

Gary Parrish says Fulmer’s ship is going down, Andy Staples wonders if we watched the end of an era, Mike Bianchi writes Florida probably just got Fulmer fired and even terribly-toupeéd New Yorker Dick Weiss thinks the Vols are out of touch with reality. Good luck on the Plains, coach!

Think about it, how exciting will it be to beat UT next year in The Swamp with Fulmer at the helm as a 2-touchdown favorite?  Will any Gator-backers be giddy with excitement in the week before the matchup?  Will there be fear?  Anticipation?  And ultimately, will Gator-fans experience the visceral endorphin-laced high that used to accompany a victory over the Vols?  Nope.  And, while there is certainly a plausible basis for Gator fans to hope Fulmer coaches out his ridiculously long contract at UT, the fate of this once bitter-rivalry will fade further from the national consciousness with each successive year.  So, as the cliche’ goes, careful what you wish for Gators-at least Vandy is ranked!

ERSTWHILE, IN THE HALLS OF JUSTICE…

  In yesterday’s post, SNL alluded to seeming inability of the Gator offense to find offensive synchronicity early in the 2008 season.  For the feeble-minded, Saturday’s showing did little to assuage the notion that the Gators will be upended when SEC heavywights, LSU and Georgia come calling absent the surfacing of the offensive nirvana was supposed to be this team’s modus operandi. 

Upon further review of Saturday’s game, however, SNL is beginning to believe that reliance on Gator offensive woes to support your position that Florida will get its “comeuppance” when LSU comes to the Swamp is not only misplaced, but is a wooden interpretation of Saturday’s game.  Let SNL ’splain this to you:

First, you should know that Florida punted once Saturday-as in, UT successfully forced Florida’s offense from the field without scoring on 1 occasion.  Here’s a summation of Florida’s offensive possessions for those of you who played grabass with the token “tipsy-hottie” at the UF/UT party you attended:  Touchdown • Field Goal • Field Goal • Punt • Touchdown • Field Goal • Kneel down. Feel better now?

The other ingredient present in the cocktail of mediocrity that Florida’s offense wasn’t on Saturday was a 17-0 lead at the end of the 1st quarter, and Brandon James nearly 200 return yards.  In other words, this game became one of field position and grinding the clock after less than a quarter.  As a result, Tebow passed for less than 100 yards while Florida’s running backs amassed almost 150 rushing and averaged 5 yards per carry.  The offensive line and Moody showed up in a big way and the Gators are, despite the lack of E-SPIN worthy highlights, passing each test with fliying colors albeit in a manner that none of the faithful saw coming. 

Florida’s defense, conversely, continues to impress-making it more difficult each week for Mr. “Florida has no interior lineman” to mount a cogent argument.  This week, UT’s behmoth O-line, touted as the best in the league coming in to the year, got little push against the active octuplets roaming the line of scrimmage for Florida. In  fact, by day’s end, UT’s trio of Backs had managed less than 3 ypc and only 60 (or so) total rushing yards.

Naturally, it is difficult to say with certainty that the hallmark of this young Gator team today, defense/turnovers/special teams, will remain static from week to week.  However, as long as Coach Meyer is driving the bus, the preparation and heart of this group of nascent Gators will remain unquestioned.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Fulmer, SEC, UF, UT

DOOM AND GLOOM IN KNOXVILLE

September 2, 2008 in ATS, Degenerate Gamblers, Main Content, SEC, SEC Fans | No comments

Looks like SNL wasn’t the only outfit to assume the oft-scoffed Phil “I’m not full yet” Fulmer would be getting pounded by the Volunteer loyalists.  This, from the Knoxville News-Sentinel:

Can’t say I blame them, especially when they turn their focus to their annual showdown with Urban’s boys and realize that Harvin is returning this week at 100%,  according to Tebow, who is quoted in the Gainesville Sun as saying:

“He’s ready to go,” Tebow said. “He’s fast. Out there running routes, I’m still leading him by another two feet than everybody else.

“He’s electric and explosive. He showed up today. He looked 100 percent ready to go. He’s flying. He went through (the whole practice).”

Gators 21.5 points better than UM?  Don’t go betting the farm, but UM has recruited well in Shannon’s first two years and, while SNL has yet to sit down and really look at the personnel, 21.5 is a whole lot of chalk to lay in an in-state rivalry that Florida hasn’t won in since 1985.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Da' U, Fulmer, Knoxville, SEC