LSU

  The Thursday before a big game usually finds SNL crescendoing into a 48 hour frenzy which seldom ends with SNL in cuffs anymore, but probably should-especially following a loss.  Naturally, this requires a great deal of energy which SNL feeds not with “bowls of oatmeal” (sorry Hippie Mike), but by reviewing the publications of the enemy camp.

This endeavor is not only insightful, but saves SNL from regressing to the days of yore, when SNL relied on the effective but unimaginative banter typically employed by youthful fans (and older fans with no affiliation with any University outside of a brief stint in a nearby holding facility following a high speed chase with local law enforcement).   

You know, the traditional “my team is not only better than yours, but I am genetically superior as well by virtue of the team I support” type stuff.  For those of you who sophomorically cling to this line of thinking as you approach the big game, please see SNL’s previous post which hopefully, will resonate on on some level with even the most illogically fervent fan.  

In any event, here’s a smattering of LSU headlines for your prerusal, followed by some commentary from SNL:

 Joe St. Pierre of the Daily Reveille writes: 

During LSU coach Les Miles’ reign, the Tigers are a staggering 13-2 when they have more than a week to prepare. They haven’t lost since Dec. 3, 2005, when Georgia whipped them, 34-14, in the SEC Championship game eight days after the Tigers defeated Arkansas, 19-17.

Looks like lady luck — and   history — are on the Tigers’ side for the trip to Gainesville, Fla.

But LSU won’t need luck or even history to help them to the win.

The Gators’ offense has looked horrid the last two games.

Fresh off a 31-30 loss to Ole Miss, Florida committed 12 penalties for 110 yards and seemed to struggle in a 38-7 win against Arkansas.

It wasn’t until a fourth-quarter, 21-point explosion that the Gators pulled away.

James Varney of the Times-Picayune, penned the following:

The Florida depth chart shows not one senior among the starting 11 defenders. Could that be an area LSU might exploit?

“Yeah, in a way you do, they do have some young players on their team, and we’ve looked at that,” LSU redshirt freshman quarterback Jarrett Lee said.

and later…

Florida may especially be concerned about its rushing defense, and not only because Saturday it will face LSU junior tailback Charles Scott, who has rushed for more than 100 yards in every game this season and whose six touchdowns are second in the SEC. The Gators gave up just 72.3 rushing yards per game through their opening three games, but that number has ballooned to 140.5 yards per game. That jump has occurred against Ole Miss and Arkansas, neither a team with a back as accomplished as Scott.

LSU blogger, Richard Pittman, probably encapsulates best the sentiment of the entire LSU nation in the following passage(s):

Their defense is athletic, but I think is weak on the line, and LSU with its power running game and play action game can probably have success there.  We can also take advantage of injuries on the defense, including to starting linebacker Dustin Doe, who is out with hernia surgery.

I’m just going to say it in bold print here.  I think that right now, LSU is a better team than Florida.  I think LSU’s offense is better than Florida’s defense, and I think LSU’s defense is better than Florida’s offense, particularly if we can eliminate the occasional coverage breakdown.  Our lines are better.  Our team is healthier.

By any empirical measure, LSU’s hubris entering Saturday’s contest is reasonable.  Even a modestly candid Gator fan must admit that LSU is more than capable of winning this game-their lines of scrimmage are solid and, against a much weaker schedule than Florida’s, LSU’s offense has forged an identity which arguably plays to the Gators’ perceived lack of physicality on Defense.

Nonetheless, after watching the second half of the LSU-Auburn game, which is the only win of note for the Tigers, SNL remains steadfast in its prediction of a Gator victory this week.  This prediciton is partially based on nebulous factors, such as Florida’s urgent need, and Pope Meyer’s ability to will his team to wins in big games.  But SNL is not overly reliant on variables that cannot be quantified due to several tangible factors. 

First, LSU is bringing a redshirt-freshmen QB into The Swamp.  And, if you read yesterday’s post, you know that Gator fans have a firm grasp on the importance of this game, which will make Saturday’s venue demonstrably more hostile that faced by LSU several weeks ago on the plains of Auburn. If, as SNL believes, the Gator defense can have success on 1st down, LSU’s newbie will be put in some bad positions.

Even more importantly, SNL likes the Gators offense versus the LSU defense.  This assertion will doubtless be greeted with a raised eyebrow by LSU and Gator fans alike, and for good reason.  But recall that Auburn led LSU 17-3 and had the ball deep in LSU territory before an offensive meltdown.  Also, take a minute to reflect on the fact that Auburn’s offensive coordinator has since been fired.  So, just how impressive was LSU’s victory in The Plains?  It seems clear in retrospect that Auburn’s offensive impotence played a significant role in LSU’s comeback.  Does anyone have any doubt that Florida’s offense, warts and all, is not leaps and bounds better than Auburn’s offense?

In addition, there have been signs, including but not limited to the 4th quarter last week, which indicate that Florida’s offense is on the cusp of morphing into a unit that more closely resembles the juggernaut predicted by most, if not all CFB fans.  The talent is in place and this unit should be able to pressure LSU’s defense, particularly if they choose to attack on 1st down, which will create some favorable down and distance situations and obviate the likelihood of 3rd and short, which is clearly a weakness heading into this game.  This will have the added beneift of pressuring LSU’s offense to keep pace, which SNL believes to be a poor fit for the Tigers.

In the aggregate, a crazy scene at the Swamp coupled with LSU’s overconfidence, Florida’s offense and redemption-fueled determination to reclaim its place in the hunt for championships, is a plausible recipe for victory.  Don’t forget to tip your waitress.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd