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Thursday’s Pick (11-4 over last 2 weeks): The Ghost of Thursdays Past

October 22, 2009 in ACC, ATS, Degenerate Gamblers, Main Content | No comments

FSU (+3) v. UNC:  Was a time when FSU ruled the world relatively speaking, at least the world north of Coral Gables.  Many won’t believe this, but it’s true.  We here at SNL vividly recall numerous ACC beat-downs meted out by the ‘Noles, and few more handed to our beloved Gators. 

Today, we here at SNL laugh and laugh some more at the futility of FSU football, which is like a turtle on its back about now.  Naturally, it is not lost upon us that this would be funnier if FSU wasn’t getting a little laugh of its own by crushing Florida’s strength-of-schedule with each humiliating loss (and some victories).  Still, it’s hard to not to empathize with the ‘Noles, at least for those who suffered through the Zook era, and Bowden remains the affable, grandfather that many of us never had.

None of which has a damn thing to do with tonight’s game, which pits former warden of Da’U penitentiary, Butch “I’ll find a way to make you eligible” Davis, against the affable old feller described above.  True to form, the warden has a solid defense, full of criminal types capable of causing considerable duress amongst you suburbanites and your uptight wives.  Problem is, Davis has yet to find a QB, and lacks the depth of criminals necessary to overcome this shortcoming on the offensive side of the ball.

FSU, conversely, has had a couple of weeks to bask in the implosion of their program, which has been a frightful site even for avowed ‘Nole haters.  The fans are sick of Bowden, who now says he will be around for a “few years,” and their coach-in-waiting, Fisher, has shown nothing to indicate that he is the answer.  Even so, ponderous sorts will ultimately find their way to the fact that Ponder is an above-average QB and ‘Noles offense is, in fact, pretty capable when it wants to be, which should be the case tonight.  Look for the ‘Noles to rally around Bowden tonight, and win this game outright-but take the 3 points for good measure.  FSU +3. 

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ACC, ATS, Da' U, Degenerate Gamblers, Noles

Welcome to the Flori-Bama: The Parallels Continue for the Tide and Gators

October 16, 2009 in ACC, Degenerate Gamblers, Dr. Saturday, E-SPIN, Gators, Main Content, Notre Dame, PAC 1 + 9, UGA | No comments

For those members of the flock that are hard-of-thinking, the foregoing picture is a metaphor for last Saturday’s “showdowns,” which turned out to be beatdowns, but provided the home teams fan base with a great chance to drink excessively. 

SNL recently posted on the “Flori-Bama”.  This quasi-clever moniker (which is also the name of a world famous bar on the state line) is SNL’s way of saying that Florida and Alabama are equal but opposite reciprocals of one another, and on a collision course for ATL and in turn, the BCSNCG. 

For the most part, the similarities were obvious before last week, when both Alabama and Florida shut down top-20 teams on the road in the most pugilistic of ways, stifling defenses and plodding, conservative offenses with a run-first philosophy.  Sure there are other similarities; both programs are helmed by taciturn, tight-lipped, control freaks who lord over their respective programs (and states for that matter) like medieval warlords and both fan bases are beyond fervent.  For the most erudite Florida fans, the fact that the Gators under Pope Meyer are a single-wing, power running team (and have been for awhile now) that is thinly camouflaged by offensive sets with wide receivers running thither and yon, is not only no surprise, but is welcomed. 

For many, however, this concept is upsetting.  This is particularly true amongst those who still recall with giddy reverie the days when the OBC would fill the air with footballs.  Be that as it may, SNL has accepted if nt embraced the fact that Meyer’s Gators are and will likely remain a team created in ‘Bama’s image-which is a good thing.  And, when these titans meet in the ATL this year, the collision will be epic-though the scoreboard may not reflect the genius of the respective generals on each sideline. 

SNL’s prescience has lost some of its shine now that the mainstream heads at si.com and E-SPIN have jumped on the bandwagon, but we will continue to site to our previous post as evidence that we were way out in front of this story. 

Well, flock, the parallels between the SEC behemoths continues this week when Alabama hosts USC and Florida hosts Arkansas.  For the records, Vegas has made ‘Bama a mere 17-point favorite over USC, and Florida a whopping 24-point favorite over the Hawgs.  The camps of both underdogs are predictably mum on the chances for an upset, and who can blame them.  More on the actual matchups later, let’s do some housekeeping. 

Last week, 7-4 ATS, 18-13 YTD.  By now, most teams are who we thought they were, and the wins are starting to come at a pace which will have the wifey in some new jewelry at season’s end.  SNL’s winning percentage in year’s past has been roughly 57% in weeks 1 through 5, and 67% in weeks 5 through 14.  Se we expect to keep on rolling.

Dis and Dat….The wheels remain intact in Athens, but barely.  Too bad because even the most calloused Gator fan can see that Richt is a good Coach and a better person.  Still, the fratricide of the SEC is unrelenting and losing to Layla Kiffin’s husband will fire up any fan base because, well, that guy’s a total jackass.  Speaking of wheels, another tough week for the ‘Noles, losing at home to Tech having been compounded by the details of the cheating schedule.  Far be it for SNL to pile on, but if you’re going to give scholarships to players who read a second-grade level (after a few years of “college” no less), you should have the common decency to be a good football team.  On the upside, by virtue of consistently sucking for 5-years or so, no one is saying that the “wheels are coming off” in Tallahassee, that ship has sailed. 

Erstwhile…Da’ U will be without 4 starters when it visits UCF tomorrow, which won’t matter, and USFwas rolled at home by Cincinnati, a fact which is further illustrative of FSU’s precipitous fall from grace since, you know, the Bulls crushed the ‘Noles in Doak with a Backup QB a few weeks back.  Finally, this is a grand week for all of CFB.  Why?  Because Notre Damehas to play USC, which will effectively foreclose any more talk of the Clausen-for-heisman, a loss for the limousine industry, but a win for Irish-haters everywhere.  The downside, of course, is the inevitable “USC is playing as well as anyone in the country right now,”  which will be a talking point for all of the frosted tipped fellows at E-SPIN. 

Picks out tomorrow…

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ATS, Degenerate Gambler, DEGENERATES, Layla Kiffin, Noles, PAC 1+9, SEC, Spurrier, The Hat, UGA, Urban Meyer, USC

Saturday’s Picks and a word on Boise St.

September 19, 2009 in ACC, ATS, BCS, Degenerate Gamblers, E-SPIN, Joe Pa', Layla Kiffin, Main Content, Pope Meyer | No comments

Boise St., in its last purported “test” of the season, wone a shootout over San Quentin…err….Fresno St. last night.  This was the second and ,presumably,  last opportunity for Boise to impress, and they failed.   As it stands, Boise will finish undefeated with a resume that will include a 19-8 win over an Oregon team that appears much worse than advertised (and should have lost to Purdue last week).

Make no mistake, Boise is good, capable of beating a handful of BCS heavyweights in a bowl game, provided the that the heavyweight in question is disinterested due to narrowly losing its conference Championship and thereby missing an opportunity to play in the BCSCG a la Alabama last year.

That said Boise is not a team that would be capable of winning the SEC, Big 12, Pac-10, and would struggle to win the ACC, particularly with a resurgent Miami to go with V. Tech.  Last night it was plain to see that there was an overall lack of power and speed, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, which in SNL’s opinion, makes Boise a de facto non-contender for the BCSG under any circumstance-with the possible exception of a host of 2-loss teams from the power conferences. 

Moving on…

Today, flock, is the day of the “dog,” and you heard it from SNL first. 

FSU @ BYU (-7.5):  This game calls for some imagery, so here goes:  FSU’s players arrive on campus hoping to one day “make it rain” with crazy NFL loot  a la such luminaries as Pac-Man Jones, Travis Henry, and Nelly.  BYU’s choir boys, conversely, arrive on Campus ready to serve a power higher than the NFL (we hope), and hope to one day earn enough money to support their large families because, you know, the whole birth control thing.  As far as football goes, FSU needs this win in the most horrible of ways, having been surpassed by Miami and nearly losing to Jacksonville St.  For BYU, beating FSU is like scoring a date with Goldie Hawn, you get the name recognition, but she’s just not that hot anymore.  In the end, however, a date with Goldie will still bolster your rep with the fellas.  BYU exploits the Noles young defense and covers easy.

Tennessee (+30) @ Florida.  SNL is a Gator fan, bleeds Orange and Blue and etc…  You should also know that the Gainesville Sun published an innocuous piec on Layla Kiffin, laying out Layla’s history as a UF grad, daughter of ex-UF QB, John Reeves, and most importantly, a former member of Zeta Tau Alpha Sorority, or the Zeta’s.  SNL spent some time in UF’s Greek System, the majority of which he doesn’t recall.  Suffice it to say that it’s more or less a bunch of rich kids fornicating and spending their parents money on booze, pills, road trips, with a (sanctimonious)semesterly charity function thrown in to throw the “rents” off the scent.  SNL has scooped a number of Zetas off the floor of local pubs over the years but by and large, they are a classy and hot bunch, so good for the Kiffins!

Oh yeah, back to the game.  UT has a good defense-probably the third best unit in the league, and a legendary coordinator to harness the talent.  SNL also explained in a previous post why the Vols and their suddenly beleaguered Coaches are backed into a corner.  In sum, the Vols D will slow down the Gators-a little-and cover this number.  For perspective, you should know that Joe “Grand” Pa’s Nittany Lions are a 30-point favorite over Temple.  Florida wins easy, but still doesn’t cover this number, 38-13 Gators. 

Toledo (+21) v. Ohio St.:  Regular readers know that SNL loves hangovers, when someone else has them; loves them even more when its the Buckeyes who are hungover.  Toledo, fresh off a beatdown of Colorado, rides their offense to a nice cover here.  You folks already playing with house money may want to moneyline this, after all, The Vest is still calling the plays.

Miss St. (+9.5) at Vandy:  Mullen has installed Florida’s offense with some success, at least in a relative sense.  And Vandy, is still Vandy, smart and undistracted by the hot co-eds at the other SEC institutions.  Bye the bye, Vandy also still believes the forward pass is what you do at a cocktail party.  Another salient point, Mullen’s boys know its Vandy too, and realisticall, the only league game they have a shot at.  MSU +9.

There’s your trifecta flock.  Enjoy. 

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ATS, BCS, Degenerate Gambler, Gators, Layla Kiffin, Noles, PAC 1+9, the Vest, Vols

SAINT BOWDEN’S BUCKET LIST

October 18, 2008 in ACC, Saint Bobby, TV SCHEDULE | No comments

For those of you who missed it, Erin Andrews’ halftime interview of Bobby Bowden is embedded below.  Its, short, punchy, and wholly illustrative of why Coach Bowden remains one of the most likeable coaches in any sport (despite the fact that most of us don’t know exactly what his job is).

  Say what you will, but Saint Bobby, who has beeen looking past player-committed felonies for at least 35 years now, still has that “it” that makes him one of America’s most beloved patriarchs.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ACC, Add new tag, Noles, Saint Bobby

ACC ATLANTIC AND THE ‘NOLES: WHERE ARE THEY NOW?

October 15, 2008 in ACC, ATS, Main Content, scUM | No comments

In Tallahassee, conversely, a guarded optimism remains following the ‘Noles blowout win over Colorado and the “not as close as it looked” 41-39 victory over the ghost of Da’ U.  Yep, the ‘Noles appear to be a modestly ascendant program about now.  The ‘Noles rushed for over 250 yards against Colorado and Da’ U and the defense, led by Mr. Burns errr….I meant Mickey Andrews, appears to be modestly salty.  Even so, the ‘Noles have struggled to pass with any consistency (14/31, 159 yards and 2 picks against UM and 17/36, 154 yards and 1 pick against the Buffs) and look to be somewhat 1-dimensional. This spells trouble when the stiff run defenses of V. Tech, G. Tech, and later, Florida, line up opposite the garnet and gold.

The good news?  Being 1-dimensional may be good enough to go 8-4 in the ACC this year.  The bad news?  The ‘Noles schedule is demonstrably more difficult for the rest of the way, with nearly the entire ACC slate remaining and a date with Florida at the end of the year, the passing game will be called upon in the weeks to come.   Should Ponder fail to answer the call, which even the most ardent ‘Nole must admit is a significant possibility, the ‘Noles may end up right where they left off in 2007-which is basically nowhere, playing no one, with no one watching.

The remainder of the division consists of Wake Forest, at least in a figurative sense.  By virtue of its head-to-head win over the ‘Noles, Wake Forest is in the driver’s seat for the division title.  For the snaguine among the ‘Nole contingent, who think FSU’s chances of taking the division are better than “not bloody likely,”  and point to the Demon Deacons loss to Navy and awful win against  a Clemson team dealing with a player-led insurrection as evidence, SNL has one word:  Schedule.

Wake Forest somehow manages to avoid playing North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech this year.  Thus, while another loss seems inevitable based on recent performances (hell, Wake is only a 1-point favorite at Maryland this Saturday), and two losses is somewhere between plausible and probable, FSU will likely need 3-losses to take the Division.  Why?  FSU plays Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, which means at least 1 more ACC loss for ‘Noles. 

The remainder of this division is less inspiring than vegetable lasagna.  Which, come to think of it, is more inspiring than a Wake Forest and V. Tech title game in front of a raucous crowd of 30,000.  Bold prediction:  367 yards of combined total offense, no forward pass completed for more than 20 yards, and a television rating lower than the Saturday rerun of Everybody Loves Raymond.

Unlike most Gator fans, SNL sincerely hopes FSU improves if for no reason other than making the ACC Chamionship something other than “must miss TV.”  To be clear, SNL does not extend the same goodwill to Da’ U, despite his love of grills and airbrushed 2001 Impalas.

Tags: ACC, BCS, Noles

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