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Saturday’s Picks ATS: Including the Red River Shootout and the cure for Georgia Ailments

October 17, 2009 in ACC, ATS, BCS, Cocks, Degenerate Gamblers, E-SPIN, Layla Kiffin, Main Content, UGA | No comments

Saturday’s Picks (7-4 last week ATS).  It’s a long year, but we fell we are hitting our stride, with two winning weeks in a row.  Too many games last week, so SNL has narrowed it down to a sexy quartet that’s sure to please.

Texas (-3.5/55) v. Okie:  As usual, there are some compelling story lines here, including but  not limited to the return of Bradford, Colt McCoy’s lost mustache, and Oklahoma’s chance to resuscitate its struggling brand.  However, for “investment” purposes, the only storyline that matters today is D-E-F-E-N-S-E, as in two of the top 16 units in the country on the field in a highly competitive, emotionally charged atmosphere. 

We root for Florida here, and couldn’t care less which outfit walks out of Dallas with a W, but we enjoy harnessing the hard work and dedication of young college football players into cold, hard cash.  No way these two teams hit this number.  Under 55 is the pick.

UGA (-7) at Vandy:  This game reminds us of Chris Rock’s “Tussin Skit,”  you know, the one where Rock recites how his father believed (Robi) “Tussin” could cure all ailments (it was Balmex and Alka Seltzer in our house), including crush fractures of the tibia and heart attacks. 

Well, Vandy is the “Tussin” of the CFB world, whatever aisl you, Vandy can fix it.  Sure, UGA is under assault from its own fan base and coming off a blowout to Layla Kiffin’s husband, but it’s nothing a little ‘Tussin…err……Vanderbilt can’t fix.  Vandy is horrible on offense, defense, and apparently, believes the forward pass is akin to sorcery.  UGA gets well today, bu a long shot.  This on e will be over by halftime.  Georgia -7.5 (buy the hook if you’re frought with trepidation, but no need, this is a double-digit win). 

Our-Kansas (+24) v. Florida:  Our beloved Gators, defenders of the Crown and home to CFB’s resident rock-star, Tebow take to the field today to play the pass happy Razorbacks.  The spread, presumably, is predicated on the “Flori-Bama” effect gripping the nation.  Ergo, ‘Bama beat Arkie by 28, so Florida should too.  Right?

Wrong.  Arkie is better now than t was then, and Florida is missing some bodies in the D-Line.  Florida is still the best red zone defense in the Country, and the Hawgs will struggle to find the end zone.  But they’ll get to the red zone plenty.  Florida wins 31-14, but doesn’t cover.  Arkansas +24.

USC (+18.5) v. ‘Bama:  ‘Bama and its diminutive-in-stature-but-ferocious-in-demeanor Coach, Saban, are CFB’s verion of the 2007 Giants.  In other words, the physicality of ‘Bama football is a force to behold, so much so that SNL winces on the couch every time the ball is snapped and ‘Bama’s defense is on the field.  That said the OBC has right fine defense too, and just enough offense to stay on the field with the Herculean Bama’ans.  USC +18-maybe a nail biter, but we’ll get it done.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ATS, Degenerate Gambler, Layla Kiffin, Meyer, Pope Meyer, Tebow

What they’re saying in Baton Rouge and Tebow-Gate: Will he or won’t he?

October 8, 2009 in Gators, LSU, Main Content, The Hat | No comments

tebow-meyerAfter much rumination, SNL has decided to post weekly on what the other camps blogs and sports columnists are reporting.  Assuming of course, the that “other camp” is not FIU or one of the other embarrassing D-II schools Foley insists on scheduling due to the “economics of the situation.”  In other words, if Vegas doesn’t have a spread, the game doesn’t really happen, no matter how many fervent, orange and blue clad folks you shove in The Swamp.  So, without further ado…

Tiger Bait is concerned with LSU’s pass rush, which hasn’t generated a sack since the Vandy game.  Truth be told, Vandy is more or less like SNL’s old JV team, which passed only after 2 (or 3 depending on field position) running plays failed to net a first down.  Naturally, there’s no way of knowing what goes on in the woeful Commie’s huddle, but the results can reasonably lead one to conclude that Vandy’s pass plays are drawn on the chest of the QB with his fingers, so sacks of Commie QB’s are essentially void ab initio.

And the Valley Shook, a well-reasoned LSU blog and one of SNL’s favorites, has devoted some space to deriding the now rote “LSU-crank-calling” tradition and thrown in a nice cuckolding of the chorus of expertswith no information whatsoever but who nonetheless maintain that Tebow should not play this Saturday.   SNL couldn’t agree more.  With respect to actual x’s and o’s, ATVS has remained relatively mum, but has taken an interesting position positing that the primary reason to sit Tebow is because this game “isn’t that important to either team.”  Presumably, this assertion is based on the fact that either team winning out following a loss in this game would be a de facto participant in the national title game.  SNL is not entirely certain that this logic holds sway if its Florida that loses, for two reasons:  1) Florida’s non-conference slate is abysmal, doubly so now that we can all attest to the fact that FSU is horrible by any objective measure and under siege to boot; and 2) Florida’s Western Division draw this year omits ‘Bama, Ole Miss, and Auburn, so Florida’s next opportunity to impress the pollsters will be in the SECCG.  Put another way, LSU plays 3 more ranked teams, one in the top-3, and Florida plays zero unless the OBC can catch fire.  Ergo, for Florida this game is a must win. 

Bandit’s LSU Sports Blogspt LSUga bf 0197.jpg has chosen to opine on LSU’s lack of pass rush and questions Florida’s ability to exploit it.  After some relatively banal introspection (in written form), Bandit  concludes that Florida can, in fact, exploit LSU’s lack of pressure and ends his piece prophetically but writing “[s]ometimes weakness can be exploited both at the depth of the weakness and during the attempt to fix the problem.”    Bandit, circa 2009 A.D.  So Bandit is no wizard of hyperbole, the blog is still worth a gander on game week. 

Baton Rouge’s on-line newspaper, The Advocate,  has a piece centered on LSU’s renewed “swagger” due to Scott’s 95 yard performance at UGA last week and his 33-yard scoring run with time running out.  Click if you’re bored, but this is just banal newspaper drivel.  Of course, using the term swagger is all of the rage thanks to Jay-Z and friends, but this clevueruse of contemporary nomenclature aside, there’s no need to check this piece out.  Maybe the ’swagger” will hit this site in time for the game, so check back.  The columnist at The Advocate, Randy Rosetta, has a pretty good piece about the talk around the water cooler, so he should be worth reading in days to come.  One point of interest in Rosetta’s piece, CBS’ “experts” have given their picks and 4 of 5 think the Tigers will knock off the Gators.  For Florida fans who deem this to be little more than biased puffery, SNL would remind you that LSU has faced tougher competition to date, especially on the road where they have defeated a pretty good UGA and U-dub. 

LSU’s Student Newspaper is also worth a gander,  though there’s nothing to get all geeked up about at present. 

There you have it flock-no bulletin board material whatsoever, just two great programs respectful of one another and looking forward to a spirited competition. 

SNL will try and stir things up with this next post, all this hand-holding makes me sick. 

As for St. Tebow:  Pope Urb has been predictably mum on the situation, at least to those who know that Pope Urb is the love-child of Bill Belichik and Johnny “Tight Lips” Fugazzi (a little know Eye-talian gangster that spoke little, but killed much).  This has prompted The Hat to prepare for both QB’s-allegedly-which is all part of the plan.  Seriously, it seems that no one knows Tebow’s status, including the team of world renowned physicians that UF has hired to monitor his recovery.  The more interesting anlge to this overdone story is the divergence of opinion between the national media, who believe that Urban will readily mortgage Tebow’s future health for a win at LSU by playing him no matter what the “experts” say, and the regional media, who believe that Tebow will play because he’s, well, Tim Tebow, slayer of draqgons, feared by men and loved by women.  SNL has tried to hit up some of the local talking heads for some scoop-you know, put their physical education degrees to work for the betterment of the flock-to no avail.  It seems that the taciturn Urban, already skiddish when it comes to players who were wiened under Spurrier’s “finesse” system, has buttoned up all informal channels of communication as well. 

SNL expects Brantley and a very tight game to be won by Florida’s defense.  More on this later…

-So Sayeth the Shephard

Tags: Gators, LSU, Pope Meyer, The Hat

UF V. BAMA: DEBUNKING THE POWER V. SPEED MYTH PART 2, AND OTHER PEARLS…

December 5, 2008 in BCS, Main Content, Pope Meyer, SEC, Saban | No comments

  SNL would like to begin by noting that the majority of his peers, in typical fashion, have moved past Florida’s dominating win over Alabama and are now scouting Oklahoma while making reservations in Miami on their Blackberry.  Sad, but true.  SNL’s attempts to stave off this laconic approach to Saturday’s game with the top-ranked team in the Country have been unavailing. 

More on that later.  Right now, SNL would like to revisit the “Speed v. Power” lexicon as it relates to tomorrow’s game, which has been embedded in the collective psyche of the print media since this matchup became a possibility.

The “thesis” of this post can be summed up as follows:  Florida’s so-called “spread” offense is deceiving and Florida  is every bit the power team that ‘Bama purports to be. 

To explore this contention, there must be a baseline by which the term “power team” is defined.  For SNL’s purposes, a power team is loosely defined as a run-oriented team which emphasizes ball control and field position with a dominant run game and a commensurately dominant defensive front 7.  A power team also excels in the red zone on both sides of the ball.

Using this loose definition as a baseline confirms that Florida is every bit the power-team that ‘Bama is albeit with faster players at the skill positions.  Those who contend otherwise seek support in the flimsiest of ways, which is by comparing and contrasting the base sets of the respective offenses; ‘Bama in the traditional power-I and Florida in the shotgun with receivers and backs all over the place.  The statistics, however, reveal how thin the veneer of this wooden contention is.

CATEGORY

TEAM A

TEAM B

Rush Offense

237 ypg

201 ypg

Yards Per Carry

6.2

4.82

Carries

459

502

Pass Efficiency Offense

#5

#52

Interception Percentage (per 100 attempts)

1.08%

2.15%

Red Zone offense

#9

#51

Red Zone Defense

#5

#58

Sacks allowed

#15

#21

3rd Down Conversion Defense

#15

#1

Sacks

2.5 per game

1.9 per game

Rushing TD’s

40

30

Percentage of plays run/pass

62.4%/37.6%

64.2%/35.8%

Team A, of course, is UF and Team B is ‘Bama.  For comparative purposes, it is useful to note that the foregoing chart is limited to statistics with relevance to the Power v. Speed argument.  There are more compelling statistics that lack overall relevance to this argument-such as total offense (UF #17/’Bama #53), Scoring Offense (UF #3/’Bama #28) and passing offense (UF #61/’Bama #97)-which generally favor UF.  

Irrespective, the conclusion to be drawn is that UF is a power running team which uses unconventional (at least by Bear Bryant standards) means to achieve this moniker.  Though lacking an Adre Smith or Antoine Caldwell, UF’s offensive line is deep, powerful, and more than capable of slugging it out with Cody & Co.  Likewise, UF’s defense is a unit capable of playing gap control against ‘Bama’s behemoths, which will force Parker-Wilson to take to the air early and often.

That said this is not a game to be taken lightly.  Saban is the coaching equivalent of a Sith Lord and will have his team amply prepared for this game.  Saban and his Visigoth hordes should be further motivated by the national media’s love of Florida and the 10-point spread assigned this game by the Vegas degenerates. 

So, while Florida may well prevail, this game will cause some angst amongst the Gator faithful and should end up very close to the Vegas number, let’s say Florida 33, ‘Bama 24.  See ya’ in South Beach playas’!

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, Darth Saban, Pope Meyer, SEC

FLORIDA V. FSU: “SON, ITS OKAY TO HATE, JUST THIS ONCE.”

November 24, 2008 in ACC, Main Content, SEC | 4 comments

  Ever the iconoclast, SNL departed from the majority of the CFB flock by watching FSU-Maryland last Saturday rather than Oklahoma v. T.Tech.  Today, it is with unfettered glee that SNL announces to all that FSU’s dismantling of the Terps has provided the moral autority for SNL to openly renew his vow of hatred for the ‘Noles.  Let SNL explain.

First, many of you Gators are doubtless thankful that FSU beat Maryland, and so is SNL.  Obviously, this helps Florida’s SOS (FSU is ranked #20 in the BCS this week).  This fact, standing alone, provides little basis for open-armed acceptance of FSU that has been extolled by many in recent years-presumably, under the doctrine of “charity.”  For SNL, FSU remains the archetypal nemesis that it was during Spurrier’s reign-a sinister group of unruly and lawless vagabonds bent on the destruction of all that is holy.

This past Saturday SNL, in a cathartic, hate-filled reverie that occurred sometime in the 2nd quarter of FSU’s 1-sided win, let loose a profane-laced tirade deriding FSU’s program, team, history and pretty much anything that was even tangentially related to Garnet and Gold-even if only related by hue.  In typical fashion, this sophomoric outburst caused the wife to look at SNL with utter disdain and say, “I hope you don’t teach your son to hate like that.”

As you might expect, the wife’s rebuke segued into some serious introspection for SNL.  It began with the best of intentions as SNL, keenly aware that hate contravenes the values he hopes to instill in his son, sought to enlist the aid of a higher power in this cause.  Alas, the prayers of SNL were unavailing and in fact, led to a more profound dislike of FSU and its various and sundry acolytes. 

Initially disheartened by the inability to achieve an enlightened position on the matter, SNL’s spirits were rekindled by an epiphany which led to 1 truth:  Its okay to hate, when the object of your hate is FSU.  Before you holy-rollers go e-mailing nasty-grams, sip on this, let it roll across your tongue for awhile.  Like fine cognac, the taste gets much better after the initial jolt.

SNL could spend all day enumerating viable, provable, reasons to hate FSU.  From Dockett’s ankle twisting of Florida running backs to the beatings Wuerffel endured when FSU played “to the echo of the whistle” to FSU’s gutless decision to go for the tie rather than the win in the infamous “Choke at Doak.”   There are also less tangible but equally viable reasons, such as FSU’s crappy stadium, that Cowgirl floozy that pocks the internet (go into porn already and leave us alone), the endless academic shenanigans, and the desperation-fueled hatred FSU harbors for its big brother, UF, which was all the rage when FSU was relevant, but now seems so ”90’s.”

That said to digress into a lengthy discussion of why you should hate the Noles is to miss the forest for the trees.  Which takes us back to the beginning, FSU’s victory Saturday has made it politically correct to openly hate FSU again. 

For starters, the FSU blogs are agog with Nole backers gushing over the talent of FSU’s defensive line, particularly, Everette Brown (3.5 sacks against the turtles).  Several go so far as to tout the defense as approaching the Boulware led units of the late 90’s, and all seem to think that this unit is by far the strongest Florida will have faced.  Unfortunately for the newly confident ’Noles, this was the MO on South Carolina, Kentucky, LSU, and Gerogia before they were razed by Florida.

Adding to the political correctness of hating FSU is the fact that FSU is ranked No. 20.  This is a far cry from the sisters of the poor that FSU has fielded during the Gators current 4 game win streak.  Cursed by compassion, SNL (along with many decent Gator-bred folk) has refrained from openly hating FSU for about 3 years now for fear that openly mocking such a defenseless and inept program would result in ostracism by those who believe that it is part of the human condition to help the downtrodden.

Today, imbued with confidence after a road win over a crappy Maryland team, FSU blogs are calling for payback and likening this year’s game to the 1997 game, when huge underdog Florida kept FSU from title shot using Johnson and Brindise.  Whether based in reality or not, the perception is that FSU has ascended into the ranks of the powerful has fostered a climate of tolerance for those who, like SNL, hate FSU like the French hate Hitler.

For all these reasons, SNL looks forward to explaining to this son that, while hating your fellow man for stealing from you, or your boss for firing for you, or that fat loser with a dashboard-fan and cigarette who just cut you off in a 1985 Mercury Zephyr, is unacceptable, hating FSU is not just “ok,” but practically en vogue.

Substantive game analysis to follow.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Bowden, FSU, Pope Meyer

STEALING AND GRINNING: AN ALABAMA METAPHOR TOO GOOD TO PASS UP

November 12, 2008 in BCS, E-SPIN, Foolmer, Gators, LSU, Main Content, Pope Meyer, SEC, Saban, The Hat, UGA | No comments

Behold, “Nick Saban’s Drive-By Face-Punching Machine.”

  This,my friends, was poached from the site of a blogging colleague, without permission of course.  As a lawyer, this fact caused me to give pause, but only for a second.  Besides, we play things “fast and loose” in the blogosphere, and poaching from friendly sites is the right of anyone who opts to host a blog-err…I think.

Irrespective, this is a metaphor, and a relatively simple one at that.  It bears no further explanation, except for those of you who quit math after failing pre-algebra at the local community college.  Since SNL assumes this group is his primary demographic (though most of you are courteous enough to close your death threat e-amils with a nice “Sincerely” or “Regards,”  which SNL appreciates), he will add some insight.

met⋅a⋅phor –noun  

  1.  a figure of speech in which a term or phrase is applied to something to which it is not literally applicable in order to suggest a resemblance, as in “A mighty fortress is our God.” Compare mixed metaphor, simile (def. 1).
2. something used, or regarded as being used, to represent something else; emblem; symbol.

What should be readily apparent to you by now is that Nick Saban does not really own, nor did he create, a “face-punching machine.”  Thus, the foregoing is what we city slicker types call a metaphor.  This one in particular is a metaphor pertaining to Alabama’s top-ranked football team in 2008. 

 Like the image itself, Alabama resembles (at times) a jalopy, puttering down the road at a top-speed of 20 mph.  Further similar to ‘Bama’s gridiron group, the Jalopy is unable to brake or accelerate in a manner that would impress even the most impressionable minds, and is in apparent need of some serious upgrades, both mechanically and aesthetically to boot. 

Due to its obvious impotence and lack of awe-inspiring attributes, unwitting bystanders, Like Les Miles, Phil Fulmer, Mark Richt and others of their ilk, allow the Jalopy to get up real close like, only to find themselves knocked unconscious seconds later by virtue of powerful and unforeseen blow to the head.

Thus, Gators, while you are free to continue to worship at the altars of E-SPIN, Mandel, and the blogosphere in general (most of which has Florida atop ‘Bama in the unofficial SEC power rankings and playing the Big 12 champ for the BCS crown), you would be wise to take heed of this metaphor.

SNL is well aware that ’Bama has done nothing impressive since posting 31 first-half points on UGA nearly 6 weeks ago, beating the likes of UK (by 3), Ole Miss (by 4), UT (by a whopping 20), and LSU (by 6 in OT).

Unlike the Gators Ferrari, which has averaged 50 points per game en route to dominating, “shock and awe” victories over Arkie (by 31), LSU (by 30, and it wasn’t even that close), UGA (by 39), and Vandy (by 28), ‘Bama’s jalopy ain’t got no “rims,” “boom,” “dubs,” “chrome,” or “bling.”  It also ain’t got no losses. 

So, while there’s no need to anticipate Pope Meyer’s furrowed brow being added to the foregoing metaphor, its far from a ga-rone-tee. 

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, Darth Saban, Pope Meyer, SEC

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