SNL would be remiss were he to fail to comment on the unisoned euphoria gripping the Gator faithful this week. Like a corpulent man atop a bed of doughnuts, the Gator Nation is fat, happy and complacent. If the local airwaves are a fair indicator, and they usually are, the bulk of the Gators nation is far more concerned with Florida’s BCS opponent than it is with the remaining foes, which include three ranked teams-one of whom, you might have noticed, is #1.
This is, after all, the “way of things” since Spurrier’s era of hegemonic dominance was followed up with Urban’s immediately gratifying 2006 title, and it really pisses SNL off. Why? Because South Carolina has won 5 in a row, and FSU lies in wait. Both ranked, both good, and both looking to make their season by beating Florida.
And yet, the bulk of Gator fans, lin true nuovo riche fashion, are busy booking rooms in Miami-when not discussing the margin of victory of the pending SEC title game, of course. The whole thing is enough to make you sick. The only solace for those who, like SNL, know that significant heavy lifting remains, is that Pope Meyer will pull every string possible to create a Chinese wall between the fans (and the pundits driving this vehicle) and using sheer will if necessary, exhort his team to victory this Saturday. Speaking of which…
South Carolina is good. In fact, South Carolina is every bit the equal of Gator-nemesis, ‘Bama, on the defensive side of the ball. Don’t believe it? South Carolina is 3rd inthe Country in total defense; ‘Bama is 4th. South Carolina is 10th in scoring defense; ‘Bama is 7th. If you want to split hairs, ‘Bama holds teams to about 30 yards less per game rushing than the Cocks (which means the Cocks hold teams to about 30 yards less passing).
The real significance, however, of Saturday’s contest for the Gators, particularly when Florida has the ball, is that USC (like ‘Bama) runs a 3-4 as its base defensive scheme. This is somewhat unusual, and allows for a multitude of defensive looks and blitz packages. Given that the personnel for USC and ‘Bama are roughly commensurate, at least statistically, Florida should be able to assess what it can do in the ATL and get a jump on their gameplan for the Tide.
For fans not concerned about base sets, coverage techniques, and other technical minutiae, the foregoing can be interpreted as follows: South Carolina’s defense is the best defense UF has faced this year, and its not even close (Sorry, LSU). So don’t expect a Vandy-ish, or even a Geargia-ish offensive performance Saturday. In fact, expect the opposite. Field position, turnovers, and grinding, lengthy drives should be the norm this Saturday. UF should prevail by a resaonably comfortable margin of 14-17 points, but it won’t come early, and it won’t come easy.
So, Gators, stop running around agog like the hottest girl in school accepted your lascivious-based offer to escort her to prom, and put on your big boy pants. There’s time enough to worry about ‘Bama and the Big 12 later.
-So Sayeth the Shepherd
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Tags: Pope Meyer, SEC, Spurrier, USC
Its Wednesday and all remain well in Gainesville. In fact, things are so blissful in Gatorville that the arrest, incarceration, and expulsion of Gator DB, Rickerson, made not the slightest dent in the copascetic wave the Gators are surfing about now.
Obviously, Weddnesday’s slate of MAC games is interesting to no one outside of the involved parties, except my boy Chap, who would gamble on badminton if that was all there was on TV.
So, in what has become a game week ritual, SNL scoured the web for Vandy blogs/websites last night, vainly hoping that this would ameliorate (look it up fools!) the post-UGA malaise.
As you might expect from a school that managed to lose at home to Duke, the Vandy football program has inspired 1 sports blog (as far as SNL is able to discern anyway). You can check it out http://www.vanderbiltsportsline.com/. (Wordpress link page giving me trouble).
The blog is hosted by a Vandy law student, and more empathetic SNL could not be. Keeping with the quid pro quo, the admittedly small contingent of Commie fans that a) believe a Vandy win is possible, and/or b) care even the slightest about Vandy football, are apparently putting together a thinly veiled argument for victory predicated on a UF let down. To bolster this wistful propostion, the blog cites Vandy’s numerous close calls against UF over the years.
The problem with this is that Vandy is dead last in nearly every offensive category that matters. Under normal circumstances, you know, when the opposition following a huge emotional victory is plausibly capable of completing a pass or 2, this week’s game would fall into the “trap” category. This is chiefly because SNL believes that all but the most dominant defenses require some emotion to play at a high level. In an emotionless game, therefore, defenses that like UF’s, are very good (and potentially dominant), but not overwhelming, often play down to the competition.
As you’ve doubtless deduced, this general maxim is essentially rendered inapplicable here by virtue of Vandy’s horrible, anemic, putrid, uninventive, ineffective, muddling, rudimentary, inept, and altogether awful (get the point) offense. Throw in for good measure that UF’s offense will score at least 31 points, and the only viable deduction is that Vandy is going to get beat, and very badly.
True, its a night game-but let’s face it, this game could be played at midnight on homecoming weekend and it wouldn’t make a difference. UF will have no problem playing through the midly disturbing noise of 40,000 intellectuals with sweaters tied around their necks.
For those who wish to liken this game to the Ole Miss game, or Vandy fans who believe that UF is beatable by virtue of the Ole Miss loss, fuhget about it… The Ole Miss loss is the reason Vandy has no chance, not the other way around. Remember Tim’s promise Gator fans? If it were made by anyone other than the god-fearing, heroic, quixotic, dashing, and rugged (all at once!) face of the Gators, we would laugh it off. But when Tebow talks, people listen. So listen up Commies!!!!!
Florida, 37-10. Easy, peazy, Japanesy.
-So Sayeth the Shepherd
Tags: Pope Meyer, SEC, Vandy
Even SNL, certified curmudgeon, naysayer, pessimist, and believer that the “sky is falling” must concede that Florida is good, and getting better. As always, SNL remains reticent to join the legions of Gator devout who are today openly predicting a BCS Championship on the heels of a ‘Bama route in the ATL. That said SNL can’t be the only Blogger to refrain from commenting altogether, so here’s some thoughts:
Stafford, Knowshon, Green are all supremely talented, but the UGA team overall appears to lack leadership and, dare I say, “heart.” Naturally, heart is a nebulous term and is not meant to deride the 18 to 20-year old kids on UGA’s team. Perhaps its better to characterize UGA’s performance as another in a series that seems to indicate that UGA does not itself believe that it can beat Florida. Thus, when an idiotic penalty brings back an interception (though the penalty seemed to contribute to Florida’s lineman being pushed into the throwing lane), or an on side kick fails, UGA seems to deflate, as if on cue.
On the bright side, UGA’s lack of zeal highlights the unquestionable passion of our quixotic QB, whom even our enemies like. Seriously, Tebow is like the love-child of Superman and Ned Flanders-unbelievable.
Speaking of message boards…SNL has long maintained that the similarities between the fans, alums, cities, and cultures that surround SEC football far outweigh the differences. Seriously, an uninitiated (and color blind) fan would be hard pressed to know the difference between Gainesville, Athens, Birmingham, Knoxville, Charleston, Auburn or Baton Rouger on the weekend of a big game.
Which is why SNL is increasingly lured to the oppostions message boards following a particularly crushing defeat. Candid Gators will recall only weeks ago the calls for Mullen’s job, and scathing criticism of everything from the defensive line to our sacrosanct QB-all following a 1-point loss in a game which Florida dominated from a statistical standpoint.
In the weeks that followed, SNL has chronicled LSU’s eerily similar experience (times 2), and watched the Vol nation go into collective despair as Fulmer’s team continues to prove that it really is “that horrible.” This week, its UGA’s turn.
The Georgia faithful are calling for Bobo and to a lesser extent, Richt. They are questioning play-calling, lack of pass rush, lack of heart, Knowshon’s untimely “self-substitution,” Stafford’s penchant for interceptions, and the possible overhaul of the program. Lighten’ up, Francis.
Georgia optimists are attempting to spin UGA’s meltdown into a convergence of bad calls, lucky breaks, and a few have gone so far as to say that UGA would win against this year’s Gator team more often than not. SNL is willing to concede that there were several bad or missed calls, including Murph’s grabbing of the Georgia DB’s jersey during his 3rd quarter touchdown catch. That said Haden’s pick was clean and Florida would beat this UGA squad 10 of 10 times.
For those UGA loyalists who believe UGA’s outgaining Florida provides some evidence of equality, think again. Florida’s plan all along was to shut down Moreno, which they did. If they gave up some play action passes along the way, so be it. Florida’s coaches rightfully felt that shutting down the run would dramatically debilitate UGA and Stafford, who has proven time and time again that the game cannot be placed on his shoulders.
Also, Florida’s offense, while conservative early, could have dramatically increased its numbers if necessary. After an 80-yard drive in the first quarter, Gators’ touchdown “drives” covered 32, 1, 56, 10 and 25 yards, respectively. Add up Florida’s first six scoring possessions, and you get 204 yards for 42 points. Factor in the almost 200 yards in interception returns, and Florida’s “offense” puts up nearly 600 yards against UGA, a number that is much more reflective of the actual game.
Quickly…Brantley looks good…Haden is becoming a “Sunday” player….Fulmer is gone, at the hands of Spurrier no less…USC was 40-point favorite over a conference foe for the 3rd time this year…for all of the deserved hype surrounding the Big 12 South, the Big 12 North is horrible. In fact, the whole conference outside the 4 heavyweights is absolutely terrible…Auburn passed 43 times (and ran 25) against Ole Miss…
-So Sayeth the Shepherd
Tags: BCS, Pope Meyer, SEC, UGA
SEC color analyst, Gary Danielson provided everyone, SNL included, with jolt when he reported that the Tebow Child played the last two games on a hyperextended knee (apparently suffered against Arkansas) but is feeling 100 percent going into the Cocktail Party:
“Tim Tebow was a little bit nicked early on and no one talked about it,’’ Danielson said in his weekly press release for CBS. “Urban Meyer didn’t even tell us (for previous CBS broadcasts). They kept it well-hidden that he had a little bit of a hyper-extended knee that he hurt early in the season. I wondered why he wasn’t running like last year. He didn’t seem the same. He was more of a finesse runner than a power runner. Urban Meyer had told us that he is finally 100 percent. We will see the real Tebow (Saturday).’’
This shocker will no likely further entrench Meyer’s reputation as a Belichick disciple, at least when it comes to divulging his players injuries.
Irrespective, the “fake” Tebow was sufficient to lead Florida to 50-plus-point blowouts against then 4th-ranked LSU and 5-2 Kentucky, which is a frightening thought until you consider the junior QB is largely considered to possess an impenetrable exoskeleton comprised of an alloy not from this earth, which allows him to win duels with SEC MLB’s and “feats of strength” during Festivus.
ERSTWHILE…..here’s some comments from the dark forces that would destroy our way of life if not repelled…
kevin said…
Carlo said… Scott said… Anonymous said… Hobnail_Boot said… Gonna be a blast.
Anonymous said… GO DAWGS!
Anonymous said… We have recruited strictly to beat the gaytors. And that is exactly what we are going to do.
Uga VII in ‘08 said… Anonymous said… Anonymous said… Anyway, man we got after Tebow that game, hope Willie dials up the same defense. Our speed matches theirs.
Anonymous said… AuditDawg said… Tags: Pope Meyer, SEC, Tebow, UGA, WLOCP
The forces of good and evil collide in Jax in two days. At issue is everything from the SEC East to the BCS and, in a hyperbolic sense, the very fate of mankind. For those of you who, like SNL, cannot stop belaboring in excruciating fashion each morsel of statistical data that supports or undermines your belief that your team will prevail, SNL offers the following:
Preamble: A brief survey of the message boards, blogs, local and state fish-wraps, and national media outlets confirms that all fans present in Jax on Saturday are relatively certain they are going to win convincingly.
Georgia’s optimism stems largely from last week’s drubbing of the Tigers, which proved to be all the salve needed to heal the wound left Darth Saban’s shock-troops when they kicked the crap out of UGA only a month ago. UGA has run the table since then, and looked more or less mediocre in the process.
The zeal of the Gator-allegiant stems from back-to-back-to-back thumoings of SEC opponents in the wake of a 1-point loss to Ole Miss in a game that statistically, was also dominated by Florida.
The result, two confident teams and fan bases sporting more or less the same resume-right?
When Georgia has the ball: Georgia under Mark Richt has been nothing if not efficient. Using primarily pro sets, UGA is a run-first/play action pass team when clicking on all cylinders. Georiga’s offense compensates for its predictability by executing. This year, UGA has harnessed this recipe into 34 points a game (2nd to Florida’s 42), and ranks 1st in total offense, passing offense, and 2nd in rushing offense. Despite the gaudy statistics, however, UGA failed to “wow” anyone until last week, posting nondescript victories over Vandy (24-14), USC (14-7), and UT (26-14).
Staring across the line of scrimmage at Stafford, Moreno and co. will the league’s #1 scoring defense, #3 total defense (allowing several yards per game more than ‘Bama) and #3 rushing defense. Breakdowns against Ole Miss notwithstanding, most semi-objective Gator followers feel that this unit is supremely talented at LB and DB, and above average along the line-with results on par with the leagues other elite defenses, USC and ‘Bama.
Since Georgia has played USC and ‘Bama, it seems that these two games are far and away the most useful in a comparative sense. UGA mustered only 50 yards rushing against ‘Bama and 106 against USC. Florida arguably lacks the inside presence of ‘Bama and USC, but is equal to or better at all skill positions and deeper to boot. As such, SNL expects Georgia to run ineffectively early, which is important for reasons set forth below. Knowshon may still go over 100 yards, but will not gash this unit as he did last year, and will find the yards hard to come by in the first half.
The inability to run early, coupled with Florida’s offense, should result in added pressure to make plays on the part of Stafford, who is clearly capable, but far less efficient when his backfield mate struggles. Georgia is not a team that relishes unfavorable down and distance situations.
Statistically, this side of the ball is a stalemate and SNL offers a hardy guffaw for those who think this Gator defense will dominate Georgia. That said this defense won’t have to dominate Georgia, just hold them to something in the rnge of 24 to 28 points, which not only possible, but plausible.
When Florida has the ball: For starters, Florida is #1in scoring offense, #2 rushing offense and #3 total offense heading in to Saturday’s matchup. Florida is also improving, which is scary, and loaded with speed. Deconstructing Florida’s offense is difficult SNL hasn’t the time or space to devote to this task.
For comparative purposes, the Dawg D is the league’s 6th ranked unit, giving up 77 ypg against the run (2nd), a beneficent 222 ypg against the pass (11th), and allowing 21 points per game (8th). You seeing what SNL is seeing? Georgia’s exuberant fans, exulting last week’s victory with by getting drunk and killing animals, seem to think that UGA’s 2008 defense is “tailor made” to stop Urban’s spread attack.
SNL doesn’t see it. Florida has a distinct advantage on this side of the ball, not just because Florida’s offense is statistically better than Georgia’s defense, but because Florida has explosive playmakers all over the field. Harvin, Rainey, Demps, James, Murphy, Deonte, Hernandez, the other guy, and that dude, can all go the distance. SNL expects Florida to paint the corners with quick passes and option-reads and go over the top with impunity against Georgia’s marginal pass-rush (1 less sack than Florida through 8 games). In all, SNL expects there will be no less than 24 Gator points by half, and you should too.
Conclusion: This doesn’t have to be difficult. Florida’s defense is much closer to the units that have stymied UGA thus far (‘Bama and USC for those who skipped to the end), and should give Georgia some trouble. Similarly, Florida’s offense is light years ahead of the one that routed UGA in Athens only a month ago and Georgia will be gashed early and often, forcing the Bulldogs to play catch-up. Put another way, a mistake by Florida’s defense yields a 25 yard run by Knowshon, a mistake by UGA’s defense yields an E-SPIN highlight that ends with Gators celebrating in the end zone.
Naturally, turnovers, injuries, or asteroid showers may alter this game in ways unforeseen, but barring anomalous intervention from unseen forces, this game should be won by the team with more weapons, more motivation, and a Pope for its Coach.
Florida loses time of possession but wins in a game that will make SEC purists puke, 41-27. Book it.
-So Sayeth the Shepherd
Tags: Pope Meyer, SEC, UGA
