Pope Urban

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  How great is this?

The Gator-Nation is obviously bored, its primary league rivals have been vanquished in shocking fashion and (as predicted by SNL) the national media has begun hyping Florida as the “best 1-loss team in the Country.” 

Looking toward Saturday’s contest against Vandy (who lost to Duke) provides little excitement for a fan base crashing from the endorphin-laced crushing of UGA.  Sure, the Gators will rally somewhat when the Cocks and the OBC roll into town, and put their game faces on when they go on the road to face the ‘Noles, but today, the Gators are spent.

The local airwaves continue to be rife with BCS permutations that place Florida in the BCS title game, which under normal circumstances would have SNL worrying incessantly about Florida looking past this week’s opponent, but that’s not going to happen when, as stated above, this week’s opponenent managed only 7 points in its recent loss at home to Duke. 

SNL has therefore opted to avail itself of the wistful winds that are blowing through Gator Country this week and somehow wound up wondering what if?  What if Urban wins his second BCS title in 4 years?  What if Tebow returns next year?  What if Florida is preseason #1 next year?  What about the year after that?

This line of thinking inevitably segued into a debate with a colleague and Notre Dame homer, who maintains that Florida remains a “regional team,” with little appeal nationally and a fairly limited sphere of longitudinal relevance. 

After some back and forth, I undermined this argument to my satisfaction, but feel that further explanation is warranted to preemptively combat this situation before it beomes a full blown pandemic. 

First, the so-called “national teams,”  which traditionally include USC, Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio State, and to a lesser extent, Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, and Penn State, earned this distinction primarily in the 60’s and 70’s.  Naturally, this group benefitted greatly from large fan bases which, coupled with television and lack of paradoy, gave them greater exposure than many southern schools, including Florida.  In the 70’s it was not uncommon for a fan living in the south to see Notre Dame on television 4 times in a season, but see Florida, Georgia, or LSU only once or twice. 

That said CFB has since morphed into a multi-billion dollar business, and college football games are televised 5 days per week and available on every major and cable network all day Saturday.  An indisputable corrolary to this is that recruiting is also a multi-million dollar business that takes place on a national scale, at least for the major programs.  What this translates into is choices for those fans who enter the CFB world as ”undecided voters.” 

The conclusion, which is likely to invite the ire of traditionalists like Beano Cook, is that the resume necessary to be considered a “national team” is drastically different than it was 35 years ago.  Sure, winning and losing remain constants, but rivalries and conference strength, which translate into more and higher profile photo ops for the best of the best, are equally important.  National titles are also important, but not as important as consistently receiving an invite to a BCS bowl. 

Whatever the criterium, the notion that only those teams who were considered “national powers” in 1975 are somehow legacies that remain the only members of this “national” fraternity is fatuous at best.  Today, there exists a fluidity to college football that was not present 30 years ago.  The vast amount of television exposure is such that the new CFB paradigm contemplates ascension to and descension from the so-called “national teams” based on a 5-year span of dominance or incompetence. 

Tennessee, which won the BCS in 1998,  is a prime example of this.  So are USC and Oklahoma, who re-entered the national consciousness after falling from grace in the 90’s.  Da’ U, who is all but entirely irrelevant after dominating the 90’s, is another example. 

For its part, Florida sits on the cusp of an SEC title, which would be its 8th since 1991, a possible NC, which would be its second in 4 years and 3rd in 11 years, and oh yeah, is poised to enter the preseason next year as one of the top-2 teams.  By any standards, this resume makes Florida a “national team.”  And, should Florida win the SEC, BCS, and enter next year as pre-season #1, it should and will be argued that Florida has become what USC was a few short years ago, the most dominant program in college football.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, BIG 10, PAC 1+9, Pope Urban, SEC

 It is common sense to take a method and try it. If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something.

-FDR

  SNL, catering to the lowest common intellectual denominator, will go ahead and tell you that the image above is an obtuse metaphor for the David v. Goliath matchup that, according to local news outlets and radio shows, is taking place at The Swamp on Saturday.  For the remaining 1% of you, who know nothing of David, Goliath, tanks, or children, SNL offers a sincere look of pity.  Moving on…

The Gator lovefest continues in the wake of Florida’s 55-21 victory over then 3rd-ranked LSU.  Edified by LSU’s victory of South Carolina last Saturday and further imbued with confidence thanks to the incessant cries of Gator supremacy on the local airwaves, Gator fans are fat and happy about now. Reservations in Atlanta and for the most wistful, Miami, are being made daily as the Gator resurgence grows in stature.

Sure, there’s a rankled minority who are incensed that the BCS and its new fangled computers have placed Florida on the fringe of the top-10 (looking up at the Buckeyes), but the silent majority remain corpulent, complacent, and for the time being, are recommending no changes to the Gators coaching staff, play-calling, game-planning, uniforms, facilities, schedule, or logo.  A great relief for Pope Meyer to be sure.

Coming to Gainesville this Sautrday to bask in this contemporary utopia is purported lamb, Kentucky.  Yep, woeful, incompetent, bumbling, undersized and undermanned Kentucky, with its cute little 5-2 record and adorable last second win against Arkansas last week.  The same club that held #2 ‘Bama to 17 points and minus 2 huge plays, around 150 yards rushing. 

Predicted final scores from the flock are somewhere between 52-10 Florida and 41-14 (also Florida) and take SNL back to days of old, when the Gator faithful arrived, like Romans at the Coliseum, for a slaughter of innocents.  Problem is, the “days of old” were only a couple of weeks ago-you remember, when Ole Miss came to The Swamp a 23-point underdog and walked away the victor.

Admittedly, Kentucky lacks any real firepower in its dilapidated state and does not seem to be the “Buster Douglas” that Ole Miss was (and is).  It is the simplicity of this statement that makes the Wildcats dangerous.  Put another way, Kentucky’s apparent lack of playmakers coupled with Florida’s 2-week bath in the post-LSU love bubbles gives rise to a scenario that is difficult for the Gators-the overdog. 

To date, the Gators have shown that they are equally capable of dominating great teams and losing to average teams, but have provided their doubters with no real reason to believe that they are capable of a prolonged campaign of greatness.  Like it or not, in the weeks that follow the inaugural BCS poll, which paradoxically means nothing and everything at this point, there exists an added an element of urgency that wasn’t present when Ole Miss came to Gainesville only a few weeks ago. 

The Gators now know where they stand, which is below Ohio State and USC.  This truth further amplifies the need for the Gators to be sharp, dominant, and overwhelming this weekend against a team that, like Arkansas and Ole Miss, is better than the fans, pundits, and pollsters think.

The reason for this is simple, MOV does not factor into the BCS algorithm, but rankings do.  Florida can expect to move as high as #5 in the Coaches poll if it wins Saturday, but could go as high as #3 if it wins impressively and others lose or win in underwhelming fashion against lesser opponents. 

The distilled sum of the BCS whole rests with Florida’s rise in the polls over the next month, which in turn depends largely on a chorus of high profile pundits extolling Florida’s greatness from their Bristol perch.   The pollsters, like trained seals, will eat from the trough of the E-SPIN highlight buffet and vote the party-line.  If the talking heads parrot Florida as the best 1-loss team at the close of the season, the Gators get to go to Miami. Simple, tidy, and true.

Feel the pressure Gators?  SNL sure hopes so because we’re all counting on you.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, Gators, Pope Urban, SEC, UK

 Gainesville Sun sports columnist, Pat Dooley, has predicted an LSU victory in The Swamp this Saturday.  This sentiment was echoed in yesterday’s MGoBlog picks, which predicted an outright victory for the Tigers as well.  Interestingly, the cacophony of learned CFB pundits has not manifested itself in Vegas, where the Gators remains 6-point favorites. 

Still, it goes without saying that those of you who make a habit of greedily gobbling the bland offerings of the pundits will become increasingly concerned as kickoff nears, praying to wahtever god you worship for a Festivus miracle to aid your Gators.   

Conversely, SNL’s confidence in the Gators remains unthawed.  This is a game that Florida must win and will win.  Sure, there will be some harrowing moments that will bring about the collective groans of 90,000 Gator fans in The Swamp, but the Gators are due.

To reiterate, SNL predicts aggressive play-calling on first down (pretty ingenious considering Florida is 7 for 30 on 3rd and 8 or longer), and a stiff run-defense bolstered by returning DT’s (see today’s paper).  LSU, imbued with confidence after breaking down Florida’s Ole Miss and Arkansas games, should be fairly predictable on 1st down, running Chuck “The Truck” into the teeth of the Gator defense.  This should result (at least early on) in a bevy unmanageable down and distance situations for the freshmen QB in the most hostile atmosphere in CFB. 

Unlike Auburn, the Gators can play offense and LSU, down by 10 at the half, will be unable to close the gap.  SNL says, 23-19 Gators.  Book it.

Working on ATS picks now, this is shaping up to be by far the best Saturday card to date so check back soon.

Tags: Fans, LSU, Pope Urban, SEC

  Despite SNL’s ministrations in yesterday’s post, the Gator backers of the “Chicken Little” variety have all but forfeited this weekend’s contest with LSU.  The chat boards and call-in shows, propped up by the slothful of wit and feeble of heart, are rife with predictions of “a 20-point loss,” and hopes that “we [gators] don’t get embarassed.”  SNL, like a lighthouse on the sea of cowardice that currently floats the Gator fleet, is here to tell you that you are a bona fide  idiot if you don’t believe Florida can win this game.

Forget for a moment that Vegas has installed the Gators as 5-point favorites and turn to the empirical.  LSU is 4-0, with 3 nondescript home shellackings of cupcakes (yes, that includes you Miss St.), and one respectable victory on the plains of Auburn.  Because the Auburn victory is the most relevant in terms of talent and venue, this is where we look to prepare our case-in-chief.

Gators know that playing on The Plains at night is tough, this being the only venue that yielded a Gator-loss in 2006.  In a physical game LSU was able to prevail at Auburn 26-21.  In doing so, LSU racked up 398 total yards (220 passing and 178 rushing) and allowed 320 (250 passing and 70 rushing).  Those who witnessed this game can attest to the fact that the score was somewhat misleading as the defenses were largely stellar. 

SNL has oft-chronicled the futility of using transcendental comparisons to determine how good a particular team is, but this method comprises one of the few (ostensibly) objective means of comparison available and therefore, it is not just LSU’s victory on The Plains that must be considered, but what we’ve learned about both clubs in the weeks since.

Auburn has defeated UT by 2 at home (compare with UF’s 24-point road victory), and lost to Vandy by 1.  In those games, Auburn has averaged around 210 offensive (pun intended) yards.  The obvious inference is that LSU’s premiere victory came against one of the worst offensive clubs in CFB.

LSU has since posted a 34-24 home victory over Croom’s offensively incontinent Bulldogs.  There, LSU led 17-7 at halftime, and its defense gave up 300 yards and allowed MSU’s QB’s to complete 66% of their passes.  Nothing to be ashamed of in a game of relative insignificance, but hardly the statistical domination one would expect if, as many Gators believe, there exists no foreseeable scenario by which Florida can prevail over LSU in The Swamp this Saturday.  

The fact of the matter is that the Gator offense, warts and all, is by far the best offensive unit that LSU’s defense will face this year.  In fact, the Gator offense, even with its inarguable shortcomings to date, leads the SEC in scoring and Tebow, though occasionally inaccurate, leads the league in passer rating. 

Contrary to popular belief, the distillation process that underpins this week’s game does not tilt decidedly in LSU’s favor.  Florida is at home. Pope Meyer is a master at “circling the wagons” and LSU, while very, very good, has not played anyone outside of Auburn who posed even a credible threat.  Florida, in addition to a much tougher scehdule to date, is hungry, motivated, and knows that come Sunday, all perceived transgressions can be forgiven if they can defeat the Tigers this week. 

SNL will leave you all with a slightly revised quote by Rudyard Kipling in hopes that the dreary myopia currently gripping the Gator nation can be cured before 8:00 p.m. Saturday:

And the end of the fight is a tombstone white, with the name of the late deceased, And the epitaph drear: ‘A fool lies here who tried to Conquer the East.’

So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Gators, LSU, Pope Urban, SEC