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A Thursday Night Lean for the Degenerates: Meet the OBC

September 24, 2009 in ATS, Cocks, Degenerate Gamblers, E-SPIN, Rebels | No comments

Ole Miss (-4/53) at South Carolina:  Regular visitors know that SNL loves to write about USC for 2 reasons:  1) A soft spot for the OBC, a great Gator and a**-kicker of (former) Gator nemesis’, UGA and UT.   As fate would have it, tGeorgia SCarolina Footballhe OBC is under the Thursday Nite Lights again this very evening, taking on a top-5 club in Nutt’s Ole Miss Rebels.  Now the bulk of you will no doubt entertain yourselves with soophomoric hyperbole predicated on the fact that the Rebels’ Caoch is “Coach Nutt”, and the South Carolina mascot is “the Cocks”.  Hah, hah.  SNL would love to engage in this banal dribble, no sarcasm intended, except that he is trying to figure out an angle on this game from the more mature perspective, i.e. beating the spread.

Dr. Saturday has penned an erudite piece on this game, the thesis of which is that the Ole Miss “brand” (as opposed to USC, Florida etc…) has not been around long enough to embed itself in the collective consciousness of the college gamblers…err….fans.  Ergo, this spread is low-which it is-for a top-5 club on the road at an unranked opponent.  SNL tends to agree, which makes Ole Miss the play here-right?  Maybe not.  Spurrier still claims some cache’, at least offensively, and Nutt has shown a propensity to shoot too soon when playing the Cocks, as was the case last year when Ole Miss promptly lost to USC after narrowly defeating a turnover plagued Gator squad.  Ole Miss has also feasted on lightweights, Memphis and fill-in-the-direction Louisiana, which means we have no real objective measure to determine how good Ole Miss really is this year.  Ole miss did, however, give up a 179 yards rushing to Memphis, which may be a harbinger of this year’s rush defense.  Even so, the OBC’s Cocks aren’t known for exploiting up the middle, so this fact may bear little on tonight’s game.

The Cocks, after making all of us suffer through a 7-3 snoozer at NC St., lit up the scoreboard against UGA.  Problem is, everyone is lighting up the scoreboard against UGA this year.  Long gone are the days we can count on the OBC’s offensive genius to turn armless Qb’s into Heisman Trohpy winners.  In fact, about all we can count on from USC tonight is a bunch of un-funny puns employing the obvious double-meaning of the word “Cock”, as show more fully below. 

At the end of the day, there’s simply not enough of a resume here to head in either direction, which means a play on either side would be G-A-M-B-L-I-N-G to say the least.  Still, SNL knows that most of the flock are quaking like the dopers on intervention to put some “action” on tonight’s game.  You know who you are Mr. “debit-card-on-BoDog”, denial will only hurt you in the long run.  In effort to satisfy your fix, however, SNL will tell you that the “value” in this line is on the Under, based on Ole Miss’ perceived ability to score and the nationally televised USC’-UGA game, which produced around 80-points.  That said value is a relative term, and SNL is going to pray that the OBC can draw up some ball plays that will allow his Cocks to hang around, so if you must, takethe under and the points, and play small!! 

Flock, before you go doubling-down on your whole $31.00 bankroll tonight, please know that this weekend’s card is the best so far from an investment standpoint.  So be judicious in your investing.  Also, please note that SNL will not take credit-win or lose-for this pick, which is purely given to assuage the degenerates among you, who are many. 

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, Degenerate Gambler, Degenerate Gamblers, Rebs

FOR THE WATER COOLER…

October 1, 2008 in ATS, Fans, SEC, SEC Fans, UGA | No comments

  FLORIDA VS. HAWAII  SNL recognizes that there exists somewhere a group of Gator fans who, whether by nature, nurture, or prescription drugs, are able to find the proverbial “silver lining” following a home loss to a 23-point underdog.  Each of us knows one these eternally (and frustratingly) optimistic types, always quoting the latest inspirational message from a book or seminar on “10 ways to influence people,” or “How to make friends for life in 5 minutes.” 

SNL, prone to philanthropy, writes this post in honor of this opiated group of Urban Kool-aid drinkers, who have likely gotten over Saturday’s loss and moved on while the rest have continued to openly lament the Gators’ woes.

The chart on the above right is Dr. Saturday’s “wasted yards” compilation.  The concept, ingenious in its simplicity, is essentially a way of parsing the statistics to determine which team “wasted” the most yards and to what effect.

As you can see, Florida outgained the Rebs by 100+ yards (take away 2 plays, and the number become 220 yards), and nearly tripled the Rebs in 1st Downs.  Florida, however, racked up 167 “wasted” yards to Ole Miss’ 15.  What this means is that Ole Miss’ offense was “feast or famine,” racking up 8 “3 and outs,” but scoring on almost every possession in which they gained a first down. 

Florda, conversely, while vastly more consistent, left points all over the field-a blown 4th down in Ole Miss territory in the 1st Quarter, settling for a field goal in the red zone, a fumble in Reb territory in the second, a punt from the Ole Miss 40 in the 4th, an extra missed point and the infamous 4th and 1 failure.  Not to mention the lost fumbles in the 3rd Quarter.

Sure, there are those among you that continue to believe that the Gator offense couldn’t be worse if Congress was calling the plays, and there is ample evidence to support your position.  However, Mr. “The SEC and National titles are still on the table,” and Mrs. “We lost in 2006 too, and look how that turned out,” can spin the nearly unparalleled ineptitude displayed in The Swamp last Saturday their way too.  Chiefly by pointing out that fumbling and blocked PAT’s are almost always cyclical and like hurricanes, tornados, and lightning, seldom strike the same place (or team) twice, at least to the extent we saw last week. 

 In other words, if even 1 of Florida’s miscues last week does no occur, Florida wins, albeit by a margin much smaller than the 23-point spread.  Now, before you go getting all giddy like a sugared up pre-adolescent, bear in mind that margin for error is significantly decreased against the LSU’s and Georgia’s of the world and therefore, a modest improvement will not stave off a 2nd or 3rd loss in the weeks to come-not with this defense.  For today anyway, this will have to do because, after all, the goals of the Gators, and their fans, are all  “still on the table.”

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Fans, Rebs, SEC, Urban

UF V. OLE MISS: NOTHING TO TALK ABOUT?

September 25, 2008 in Degenerate Gamblers, Fans, Main Content, SEC, SEC Fans | No comments

 Things are awfully quiet in Gville this week as Gator backers, at least most of them, are content after feeding on the Vols and are (apparently) greeting this week’s game laconically, to say the least. In fact, the preponderance of the talk-radio banter in Gainesville omits in its entirety any reference to the Rebs and focuses instead on the perceived inadequacies of the 4th ranked Gators’ offense.  

Proctored by the marginally talented talkradio hosts and fueled by the jobless callers, this debate has produced two equally meritless camps, one trumpeting the ”what’s wrong with the offense” mantra based on the statisitical dropoff as compared to last year’s Gators, and one rebutting with equal fervor the wooden “a win is a win,”  which ranks just above “it is what it is” in the meaningless phrase category.   

The scope of this debate, which is banal at best, has been pointlessly discussed in concentric circles such that it has now devolved into a “how will Florida’s lack of offensive numbers impact next year’s recruiting?” angle.  The resulting product is irredeemable on so many levels that jumping in on either side surely makes SNL part of the problem.  Even so, this ridiculous debate shows no signs of ending anytime soon.   Let’s hope Urban’s troops aren’t as complacent as the overfed fans because guess what people, Ole Miss is good and, recruiting after 3 games?  Are you ^&*(ing kidding???

What you need to know: For starters, Ole Miss won in The Swamp in ‘04.  True, this loss was suffered under the hapless and unpredictable Zooker-regime, but remains a part of history nonetheless.  Let’s also accept that Florida’s baby-Gator secondary made a less talented Ole Miss club look like Texas Tech last year, getting burned for almost 400 yards through the air. Today…

the new look Rebs are good enough to be 4-0.  However, they are 2-2, having lost to likely ACC champ Wake Forest on the road by 3 in a game that was statistically a dead heat.  The Rebs loss to Vandy at home by 6, which likely kept the Rebs from entering the top-25 this week, is somewhat misleading as Ole Miss turned the ball over 6 times (which is 6 times more than the Gators have turned it over all year) and outgained Vandy by nearly 200 yards.  Even so, losing to 23rd-ranked Vandy is no longer like losing a fistfight with your little sister, its more like losing a fistfight to your little brother who dresses in drag.

On offense, the Rebs are wide open-Javon Snead is a true talent at QB who will stretch the field using a pair of Gazelles that almost every team in the talent-rich SEC manages to field nowadays.  The running game is solid and includes the Ole Miss version of the “Wild Hog” formation Nutt popularized at Arkansas.  While moving the ball has not been a problem for the Rebs, holding onto it has as Ole Miss has turned the ball over 11 times in 4 games.

All things considered, Ole Miss should pose the most significant scoring threat of any of the offenses faced by the Gators to date.  Ole Miss averages over 200 yards a game rushing and passing and Nutt, like his namesake, is willing to call everything from fake punts to flea flickers from anywhere on the field. 

On Defense, Ole Miss is very slightly above average, with a relatively strong defenseive line and not much else.  The linebackers and secondary likely rate as “competent,” but there’s nobody on this side of the ball outside of DT that would make the Gators’ wish list. 

Conclusion:  This game should be much closer to the “shock and awe” Florida fans envisioned coming into the season.  Urban is stoic and will never admit it, but he is as frustrated by the lack of E-SPIN highlights produced through 3 games as the fans, and will make every effort to atone by unleashing the hounds this Saturday. 

Ole Miss will also move the ball but likely struggle to score TD’s in the redzone against a very disciplined Florida D.  Still, there will be a few “white knuckle” moments produced when Snead scrambles and completes a 16 yard pass on 3rd and 9.  At the end of the day, its Gators 38-21.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Rebs, SEC, UF