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Saturday’s Picks and a word on Boise St.

September 19, 2009 in ACC, ATS, BCS, Degenerate Gamblers, E-SPIN, Joe Pa', Layla Kiffin, Main Content, Pope Meyer | No comments

Boise St., in its last purported “test” of the season, wone a shootout over San Quentin…err….Fresno St. last night.  This was the second and ,presumably,  last opportunity for Boise to impress, and they failed.   As it stands, Boise will finish undefeated with a resume that will include a 19-8 win over an Oregon team that appears much worse than advertised (and should have lost to Purdue last week).

Make no mistake, Boise is good, capable of beating a handful of BCS heavyweights in a bowl game, provided the that the heavyweight in question is disinterested due to narrowly losing its conference Championship and thereby missing an opportunity to play in the BCSCG a la Alabama last year.

That said Boise is not a team that would be capable of winning the SEC, Big 12, Pac-10, and would struggle to win the ACC, particularly with a resurgent Miami to go with V. Tech.  Last night it was plain to see that there was an overall lack of power and speed, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, which in SNL’s opinion, makes Boise a de facto non-contender for the BCSG under any circumstance-with the possible exception of a host of 2-loss teams from the power conferences. 

Moving on…

Today, flock, is the day of the “dog,” and you heard it from SNL first. 

FSU @ BYU (-7.5):  This game calls for some imagery, so here goes:  FSU’s players arrive on campus hoping to one day “make it rain” with crazy NFL loot  a la such luminaries as Pac-Man Jones, Travis Henry, and Nelly.  BYU’s choir boys, conversely, arrive on Campus ready to serve a power higher than the NFL (we hope), and hope to one day earn enough money to support their large families because, you know, the whole birth control thing.  As far as football goes, FSU needs this win in the most horrible of ways, having been surpassed by Miami and nearly losing to Jacksonville St.  For BYU, beating FSU is like scoring a date with Goldie Hawn, you get the name recognition, but she’s just not that hot anymore.  In the end, however, a date with Goldie will still bolster your rep with the fellas.  BYU exploits the Noles young defense and covers easy.

Tennessee (+30) @ Florida.  SNL is a Gator fan, bleeds Orange and Blue and etc…  You should also know that the Gainesville Sun published an innocuous piec on Layla Kiffin, laying out Layla’s history as a UF grad, daughter of ex-UF QB, John Reeves, and most importantly, a former member of Zeta Tau Alpha Sorority, or the Zeta’s.  SNL spent some time in UF’s Greek System, the majority of which he doesn’t recall.  Suffice it to say that it’s more or less a bunch of rich kids fornicating and spending their parents money on booze, pills, road trips, with a (sanctimonious)semesterly charity function thrown in to throw the “rents” off the scent.  SNL has scooped a number of Zetas off the floor of local pubs over the years but by and large, they are a classy and hot bunch, so good for the Kiffins!

Oh yeah, back to the game.  UT has a good defense-probably the third best unit in the league, and a legendary coordinator to harness the talent.  SNL also explained in a previous post why the Vols and their suddenly beleaguered Coaches are backed into a corner.  In sum, the Vols D will slow down the Gators-a little-and cover this number.  For perspective, you should know that Joe “Grand” Pa’s Nittany Lions are a 30-point favorite over Temple.  Florida wins easy, but still doesn’t cover this number, 38-13 Gators. 

Toledo (+21) v. Ohio St.:  Regular readers know that SNL loves hangovers, when someone else has them; loves them even more when its the Buckeyes who are hungover.  Toledo, fresh off a beatdown of Colorado, rides their offense to a nice cover here.  You folks already playing with house money may want to moneyline this, after all, The Vest is still calling the plays.

Miss St. (+9.5) at Vandy:  Mullen has installed Florida’s offense with some success, at least in a relative sense.  And Vandy, is still Vandy, smart and undistracted by the hot co-eds at the other SEC institutions.  Bye the bye, Vandy also still believes the forward pass is what you do at a cocktail party.  Another salient point, Mullen’s boys know its Vandy too, and realisticall, the only league game they have a shot at.  MSU +9.

There’s your trifecta flock.  Enjoy. 

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ATS, BCS, Degenerate Gambler, Gators, Layla Kiffin, Noles, PAC 1+9, the Vest, Vols

College Football: The way it is is the way it was (for the most part).

September 15, 2009 in ACC, BCS, BIG 10, Dr. Saturday, E-SPIN, Foolmer, Gators, PAC 1 + 9, The Hat, The Poodle, Vols | No comments

  The season is a mere 2 weeks old and, as always, the drama of CFB has seen the fortunes of many diametrically altered in a span of 3 and a hal hours this past Saturday.  In general, what stands out the most to SNL is not the ostensible resurgence of the Wolverines or comeuppance of the Houston Cougars, it’s the plodding inefficiency of specific regimes who thought  they were something other than what they are, but are in reality, are who they already were.  There’s also a few, who are what they never have been.  Make sense?   Let Me explain:

1.  The Vestwas bludgeoned again by The Poodle.  There is a great write-up on the Buckeyes’ offensive ineptitude on Dr. Saturday’s site, and SNL would be re-plodding plowed ground were he to get into all of them.  But some of the more noticeable deficiencies include the complete absence of the zone-read, which is the staple of every spread offense from Ann Arbor to Gainesville (and about a thousand high schools in between), and the failure to make USC cover the field (all of it, that is) by checking to a bubble screen when the Trojans (purposefully neglected) to place a man over the slot receiver.  

In laymen’s terms, Ohio State was advertised as a newly constructed offense built on the skills, shoulders and tattoos of its phenom QB (save some canvas TP, you may want to add a few more when you’re languishing on the bench in the NFL).  What Ohio St. is, however, is the same unimaginative, poorly coached and schemed offense that hasn’t been able to beat a team of equal talent since 2002-for those of you parochial by nature, this means a team outside the Big 10.  What is certain, or as certain as anything after 2 weeks, is that  Rich Rodriguez-irrespective of this year’s outcome-is a better coach than The Vest, and Big Blue will run The Vest out of town in another year or two.  Even worse, there is nothing left on the Buckeye schedule sufficient to buoy this year’s Buckeyes into the national consciousness.  In sum, OSU remains the team that is better than the other teams in its conference, but incapable of beating the best teams in the SEC, Big 12, or PAC 1 + 9, at least for now.

2.  Kiffin’s credentials, aside from his bridal selection, are worthy of questioning.  In fact, if you closed your eyes during the UCLA/UT game on Saturday for any reason other than excessive alcohol consumption, this game looked exactly like last year’s crap-bowl between these teams which was coached not by UT’s blonded boy-toy, but by his corpulent predecessor, Fool-mer.  The offense was straight outta’ Crompton, with the 5th-year senior throwing for less than 100 yards and 3 picks.  It seems safe to say the Fulmer could have could have produced this result and saved the school a ton of money and off-season embarrassment.  Speaking of which, Kiffin should be mouth agape by midway through the second-quarter this Saturday and suffering from Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder by 6:00 EST or so.  Best part:  Fulmer is CBS’ SEC analyst.  In sum, Kiffin is just a mouthier version of the old boss, and he’s also the Jabrone that marched into CFB’s most hyper-competitive conference (and its not even close) and made an ass out of himself without any independent achievements to support his sophomoric hubris.  

3.  Rich-Rod.  Say what you will about this guy, he’s a liar, he breaks the NCAA’sludicrous practice constraints for the NFL feeder league that is NCAA football etc…  This guy can Coach.  True, Michigan and ND both looked undersized and slow on the defensive side of the ball, but how can you not like this Forcier cat?  He’s small and ornery, like NCAAF’s version of Tanner from The Bad News Bears, and, unlike USC’s frosty-tipped signal caller, looks like he’s not a complete douche. 

4.  The OBC can still draw up some plays and, still struggles on occasion in the red zone.  3 field goals on possessions inside UGA’s 20, along with the worst kickoff coverage this side of Zook undid the Cocks, but credit the OBC for putting on a show following the nationally televised cat-fight with NCSU.   

5.  It’s official, USC is now poised for 2 weeks of BCSCG hype, followed by an untimely loss-or 2 if Saturday’s vanilla performance is a harbinger-and a season-ending win streak which will prompt the E-SPIN heads to sing in unison “SC is playing as well as anyone in the country right now.”   While it would be nice for Florida deliver a solid a**-kicking of the prophylactics in the BCSCG, the key to this wish is the phrase “right now,” which impliedly points out that the Trojans will have sucked against someone else that also sucks a month or so before. 

6.  Florida’s trip to Baton Rouge looks a little rosier to the uninitiated.  LSU was outgained by over 200 yards in Washington last week and judging by the scoreboard, struggled to put away Vandy.  This sentiment, which seems common amongst Florida fans, belies the fact that LSU was never threatened by Vandy, and coasted to relatively convincing victory nonetheless.  And, playing Vandy is about as exciting as drunk-dialing an ex-girlfriend at 2 a.m. becuase the girl you were buying drinks for all night lef with your buddy.  Still, it would be nice to see  The Hat joining The Vest and the cherub-faced Kiffin on the first train outta’ town if the Tigers get cleansed by the Gators on October 11, but don’t count on it.  

7.  Florida State’s trip to Gainesville looks like a horror show.  Hell, the ‘Noles may get pummeled so bad by the polygamists next week that they may just forfeit the remainder of the season.  The only upside for SNL is watching Bownden hem and haw on his
Sunday program, dropping punchy 1-liners like “I don’t know who #19 is,” and “I can’t remember what play we had called there.”  Like all sentient beings, SNL likes Bowden, but his equity in the program has dwindeld to an all-time low and it may be time to move on.  Bowden for Senate!  For the uninformed, the ‘Noles squeaked by Jackson St. last week after trailing most of the 4th-quarter.  Would it be an overstatement after 2 games to say the Florida State sucks-again?  Probably not.  But always looking to err on the side of caution, SNL will refrain from making so strident a statement for fear of a bellicose response from the ‘Nole readers, who don’t know what that last sentence means.  But, after Tech kicks the crap out of Da’U this Thursday, all bets are off.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, Degenerate Gambler, LSU, Meyer, The Hat, The OBC, the Vest, UT

USC SWEATERS V. OSU SWEATER VEST AND MANDEL ON THE GATORS

September 11, 2008 in BIG 10, Degenerate Gamblers, Girls, Main Content, PAC 10, SEC | No comments

 SNL has scrutinized from a myriad of angles the potential outcome of a contest featuring the USC sweaters and the Vest, popularized (somewhere) by Ohio St. Coach, Tressel.  Without overtly divulging the winner, let’s just hope that the football game is more evenly matched for the Buckeyes.

USC v. Ohio St., cleverly dubbed “trobuckalypse” by Dr. Saturday, has quickly become one of the least anticipated top-5 matchups in CFB history.  Naturally, this is largely due to the Buckeyes uninspiring win over Da’ Baby ‘U last week, which was admittedly pathetic.  That said the national pundits, including Mandel (below) and Herbstreit, have sounded strangely similar to the Presidential Candidates this week as they laud Ohio State’s talent as every bit the equal of USC’s, but conclude that USC simply cannot lose this game, and should win handily.

Degenerate Gamblers are on board with this assessment as over 70% of the money wagered to date has been on the favorite, despite a jaw-dropping opening line of 10.5.  SNL, for one, would like to remind everyone that while USC is strong, VIRGINIA is freakin’ terrible-as in, won’t win more than 3 games in the lowly ACC this year and barely managed to triumph over Richmond.  Naturally, this means that the Men of Troy’s absolute trouncing of the swordless Cavaliers IS essentially meaningless-despite the national media’s corporate by-line:  “USC traveled all the way across the country and pounded a BCS team.”  Virginia, which lost nearly every signficant contributor to last year’s team which, oh yeah, won five games by less than 5 points and was woefully inept on offense, is no more a BCS team than Duke.

Also embedded in the collective psyche of the CFB world are the Buckeyes’ colossal failures in the BCS title game and to a lesser extent, the perceived weakness of the Big 10 as a whole.  Despite how vogue SEC (and USC) fans find it to pile on the Big 10, and especially, the Buckeyes, the talent gap between these two teams is negligible.  So it is surprising, to say the least, that the Buckeyes have gone from preseason No. 1 to nothing more than another lamb for the invincible Trojans who, for all of their non-conference success, have blown it plenty over the past two seasons to much lesser opponents.

Intangibles aside, this game likely boils down to the Buckeyes ability to protect the QB and put together some semblance of a passing game, which they have been unable to do when matched up with D-lines of commensurate experience and talent.  SNL suspects this is not lost on “the Vest,” who, despite his dubious choice of sideline garb, fields a very talented team and is very aware that he will have to loosen up USC’s run-stoppers to have any hope of success.  For Buckeye backers, this game is yet another chance to show that its raison de’ etre’ is not limited to  blackening the eyes of its little sisters in the Big 10 and summarily surrendering to the first foe of equal or greater talent.

In sum, Ohio State is no more a punching bag than USC is an unconquerable fortress of football greatness.  WHOA!!! The Trojans, untested by the lamb that is UVA, are more than capable of losing this contest, particularly if their gunslinging quarterback continues his Favre-esque penchant for forcing the football into tight coverage.

ELSEWHERE…

 

Stewart Mandel SI’s premier CFB pundit, Stewart Mandel, handsome devil that he isn’t, crafted the following response to an e-mail query this week:

I’ll cut right to the chase. Florida overrated? Miami underrated? Or somewhere in between?
– Kyle, Miami

Despite the final score, Miami showed a lot of progress last Saturday night. The ‘Canes’ influx of young talent on defense seemed to have an immediate effect, holding down Tim Tebow and the Gators’ cast of skill players for the better part of three quarters. And the impact of new defensive coordinator Bill Young, formerly of Kansas, was undeniable. Miami mixed up its blitzes and coverages far more than it did when Randy Shannon was still calling the shots on defense (though in his defense, Shannon didn’t have much need for trickery back when his arsenal included Ed Reed, Sean Taylor, Jonathan Vilma, Antrel Rolle …)

Are the ‘Canes underrated? That’s hard to say when they weren’t “rated” to begin with. SI picked Miami to go 7-5 going into the season, and that’s probably still a fairly realistic projection. Because of their youth, the ‘Canes figure to be inconsistent, and while QB Robert Marve looked good at times in his debut, he’s still clearly lacking talent around him.

And yes, I do think the Gators are slightly overrated. While my fellow pollsters elevated them to fourth over the weekend, I kept them at seventh (which, I later found out, was the lowest of any AP voter. While some Florida fans are viewing Saturday’s performance as a sign of their defense’s return to dominance — what did they expect against such a young and suspect offense? My concerns with the Gators’ offense remain the same. For all this talk about Urban Meyer’s stockpile of weapons, at the end of the day, Florida once again relied almost entirely on Tebow and Percy Harvin to run the ball. It burned them against Georgia and Auburn last season, and it will burn them on a couple occasions this season if somebody else doesn’t step up soon.

SNL couldn’t disagree more with Stewie’s conclusion of the Gator’s 2008 team, but has to admit that unless and until Florida puts together an explosive and well-balanced offensive performance against a meaningful opponent, Mandel’s poorly crafted perception will be the norm rather than the exception.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: the Vest