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Saturday’s late games (2-1 on the nooners, or so it seems)

October 10, 2009 in ACC, ATS, BCS, BIG 10, Degenerate Gamblers, E-SPIN, Main Content, PAC 10 | No comments

  Wife is at the movies and junior is napping, so let’s get to it.

Wisconsin (+16/47u) at The Vest: 

for the Vest, this game is like looking in one of those mirrors that makes you look ten pounds heavier, with Wisconsin being roughly the same team-philosophically speaking-as the Buckeyes are under the Vest’s stewardship .  So, the Vest should be in his comfort zone today when the cornfed Badgers roll into town.  Slothful of feet are those Badgers, and with only a mediocre passing attack, The Vest is the cerebral equal of his opponent for a change.  That said this number is little too high or put another way, Wisconsin isn’t that much fatter than OSU.  Take the generous points here and throw a bone on the under while you’re at it.  

Georgia Tech (+3) at FSU:  A week of turmoil for the ’Noles, who just can’t seem to run off Bowden-like the criminals at AIG, he’s just “too big” to fail.  The good nes for the ’Noles is that for 3.5 hours or so, they can stop hearing about how much they suck, which is considerable.  The bad news, the Yellow Jackets are technically sound and appear to be hitting their stride, and Bowden is still the Coach.  Wrong team favored, FSU implodes on itself like a dying star tonight.  GT +3.

Ole Miss (+5.5) v. ‘Bama:  Like his taller sibling, Meyer, Saban is a bit of a pill, a control freak who cannot relax and would refuse to sign your son’s hat if you saw him at a restaurant.  Also like Meyer, Saban is goood, real gooooooooooooood…  Nutt, conversely, seems like a fun guy parading around in his brim hat a la Greg Norman.  As for the X’s and O’s, Nutt’s D is salty and they have something to prove today, while ‘Bama just needs to win.  SNL loves getting the points at home and will also lay a little on the under.  Shop this one around because the line is between 4 and 5.5 depending on where you’re buying. 

Smaller plays:

Michigan/Iowa over 47

CSU (+9) over Utah

UCLA (+4) over Oregon

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

 

Tags: ACC, ATS, Darth Saban, Degenerate Gamblers, SEC, Urban

Gators v. Vols Recap or, Welcome to Flori-bama!

September 21, 2009 in BCS, Degenerate Gamblers, E-SPIN, Gators, Main Content, PAC 1 + 9 | No comments

tebow-volsIt was about this time last year when the Gator Nation was eating its own, attacking Meyer’s offensive acumen and lamenting the Gators desultory (here’s link for the thick of skull flock-members) offense and its inability to score points-alot of them.  This despite easy wins over Da’ U, Hawaii and those wascally Vols.  In the weeks that followed, Florida lost to Ole Miss, St. Tim of Tebow uttered the infamous  ”promise,” and Florida beheaded its remaining opponents like a medieval Monarch.   

Fueled by pre-season hype akin to “Beetle-Mania,” or so I’m told, a laughable pre-season slate, and Kiffin’s yapper, Saturday’s game against the suddenly-cool-to-hate-again Vols was going to be Florida’s Magnus Opus, a beating of biblical proportions meted out by the Orange and Blue Jesus, Tebow.  This game, circled on Gator calendars since Kiffin’s hire, was a statement game, pure and simple.  The statement, however, was not what the blood-lusting Gators wanted, but it’s probably the one they needed. 

First, let’s set out some basic facts.  It was obvious from the second quarter forward that UT could not beat Florida and it was equally obvious after 3 quarters that the Vols weren’t trying to beat Florida.  Florida punted only once and was a Tebow fumble away from posting 30 on UT.  Still, there’s no denying that on some level Kiffin got what he wanted, a “respectable” loss, and the Vol spin doctors are giddy with their “progress” under the Kiffin regime through 3 games.  Lost amidst UT’s euphoria are a couple of facts:  The Vols are 1-2 with a home loss to a PAC-10 team, and Florida is the top-ranked team and most consistent program in the country.  Framed as such Kiffin’s zeal in losing a not-as-close-as-it-seemed game to Florida (UT’s 4th consecutive loss to Florida) is more of an indictment of where his program is than the final score, however lopsided, could ever be.   In other words, the Vols are Ernie Els to Florida’s Tiger Woods.  Kapish?

For the Gators, it may be time to accept this year’s team for what it is, which is an excellent defense and an offense built around a power running game and make no mistake, Florida is a power running team no matter how many guys you see lining up at receivor.    If you look across the aisle Gator fan, you’ll see that your likely date in the A-T-L this year is fiendishly employing this same recipe albeit in slightly different fashion.  Darth Saban, whose Tide looks every bit the equal of Florida through 3 games, like Meyer, knows how to win.  Run.  Force turnovers.  Crush your opponents resolve with bone jarring hits on both sides of the ball.  For some, the transition may be difficult, the hi-fi pyro-technic display seared into our collective psyche by Harvin and Murphy put on last year was great.  Now, the Gator Nation is in effect breaking up with that really hot girl with a store-bought pair and questionable morals for the smart and pretty girl that you can present to the parentals without hesitation.  Sure, there will be the occasional E-SPIN highlight to satisfy the talking heads,  akin to a drunken make-out with your loose ex while your current is out of town, but you must stay the course!    In the end, the pretty and smart girl with a college degree and foresight is more than ample to get you where you want to be.  And, this years lo-fi edition can still do something that no other Gator team has ever done, win ALL of it’s games.  Do this and no one will remember that you didn’t beat Tennessee by 40 points.  A point which Meyer is well aware of. 

Moving on…SNL is 6-4 ATs through 3 weeks.  Left some easy winners on the table this week, but flock members who were around last year know that weeks 5 through 11 are where the coin is made.  FSUwas impressive and helped UF’s SOS with a dominant win over the Mormon hordes.  Maybe some of the ‘Noles will be “making it rain” in a strip club near you after all.  The Men of Troy, helmed by the Poodle, have blissfully let us all off the hook early this year, losing as a 19-point favorite at Washington.   For those who missed it, Jake Locker was phenomenal in the 4th-quarter.   Unlike year’s past, however, this year’s Trojans suck, predictable on offense, no playmakers at wideout.  Stay tuned, more losses to come, maybe SNL will start following the Poodle’s “tweets.”  LSU is getting better each week, and bye the bye, how impressive does LSU’s win at Washington look now? 

Coming soon……

Thurday’s Picks

Vincenzo’s Revenge

WHY SNL is smarter than you (wayyyyyyyyyy smarter, in fact)

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: ATS, BCS, Degenerate Gamblers, Gators, LSU, Urban, Urban Meyer, Vandy

FLORIDA GATORS: ZEN AND THE ART OF REPUTATION RESTORATION

October 13, 2008 in BIG 10, Fans, Gators, LSU, Main Content, PAC 1 + 9, Pope Meyer, SEC, SEC Fans, Saban | No comments

 Gators back in the driver s seat after trouncing LSU  The outpouring of love for the Florida Gators in the wake of Saturday’s blowout win would undoubtedly be unprecedented were it not for the 12 month orgy that saw a 2006 BCS title sandwiched between 2 basketball chamionships.  Irrespective, the about face by Florida fans-who have become about as faithful as that girl who tells you how “special” you are when she invites you to her house at 2:00 a.m. after 30 minutes of drunken banter-is hilarious when considering that only a week ago calls for Mullen’s head were common, and some went so far as to question Pope Meyer.

Today, Gainesville is the land of “milk and honey,” where strangers stop to help one another with flat tires and assist the elderly across the street.  A quick peek into the camp of the Gator’s vanquished foe reveals that the panic, anxiety, and overall lunacy that infected Gator fans only a week ago, has found a home in Baton Rouge where, less than a year after LSU’s BCS title, the message boards are rife with seditious fans urging Les Miles’ firing.  So, Mr. Jean-Francois gets his car wreck after albeit a little closer to home than anticipated. 

The volatility and histrionics of the SEC fan bases notwithstanding, the only lesson to be taken from Saturday’s results (and this applies from Austin to Gainesville to Athens without exception) is that the 2008 season is upon us.  And, in the SEC and Big 12, which are far and away the strongest and deepest conferences in the land, the weekly fratricide will continue leaving in its wake the chaos, angst, and occasionally, elation that makes CFB the greatest sport on earth. 

SNL would be remiss for failing agree that on a number of levels, the buoyed spirits of the Gator nation appear to be soundly based for a number of reasons.  First, the Gators scored huge with “style points” Saturday.  For those who continue to deride the need to win impressively, SNL recommends a gander at this week’s polls, which now have Florida ahead of Georgia, undefeated BYU, who both won Saturday.   Like it or not, as long as subjectivity remains a core value in the BCS distillation process, big wins in high profile games are worth their weight in gold (see ‘Bama’s victory of UGA as Exhibit “A.”). 

Second, Florida, having lost once, has suffered through the “dark period” that inevitably occurs when a title contender is upset.  SNL concedes that a loss is never a good thing, but for this Gator team, the taste of defeat should remain fresh enough to prevent a second lapse to the “decent” teams as the season wears on (looking at you UK, USC, Vandy and FSU), each of which could, but should not, beat Florida.

Finally, Saturday’s resounding victory has rightfully been characterized as Florida’s renaissance-a game in which Florida found an identity which consists of Tebow distributing the ball to wildly talented speedsters, an increasingly stingy defense, and imposing special teams.  To most partisan observers, Florida’s performance Saturday was like watching the launch of the Space Shuttle after several failed attempts.  The resulting fireworks have given rise to a belief by many, including E-SPIN’s Cowherd, that Florida is one of the top-5 teams in the country. 

Unlike 2 weeks ago, there now exists ample evidence to gauge the 2008 contenders, and it is reasonable to place the Gators in the quintet of BCS-title hopefuls-for now.   Of the 1-loss contenders, USC and Oklahoma rank ahead of Florida today. 

Most pundits agree that the feebleness of the  PAC-1+9 is such that USC lacks the autonomy to make it to the BCS-title game absent more losses by the other elite.  Oklahoma, whose defense again failed to show up for a big-time game, appears poised to win out, as does Florida.  Texas has a tough road and PSU could lose to the Buckeyes.  Which makes viable a scenario whereby a bevy of 1-loss clubs must be distiguished.  If this occurs, Florida’s big-time win last Saturday will be instrumental in building the Gators’ resume.   

Still, the only certainty, for Gators, Lions, Tide, Trojans, Sooners, and Horns is that getting there will be more than half the fun.  It always is.   

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: BCS, SEC, Titletown, Urban

LSU v. FLORIDA: GATOR FANS MAKE THE DIFFERENCE?

October 8, 2008 in ATS, Fans, Gators, Main Content, SEC, SEC Fans | No comments

  

As the LSU-Florida showdown nears, the LSU message boards are making it abundantly clear that LSU fully expects to win this game-and, by a fairly significant margin.  

Naturally, there is no statistical significance to the banal banter of fans, nor do fans throw, catch, run, block or tackle come gameday.  However, SNL has long subscribed to the theory that the confidence, complacence, fear, and hubris of a teams fans is often personified by their team with disastrous (or fantastic) results.  

For example, when Florida lost to Ole Miss two weeks ago, the crowd was about as animated as the ostensibly “diverse” group that watched that smooth talking dude debate that  angry old guy on every freaking channel last night. SNL took note of thousands of empty seats before kickoff and (wrongly) assumed that the Gator faithful were “fashionably late.”  By the 2nd quarter, however, it was apparent that Florida fans simply weren’t that excited about playing a 23-point underdog and had instead opted to stay home and nurse their hangovers.

Keeping with SNL’s theory, the malaise of the Gator allegiant had spread like STD’s at a fraternity house and ultimately, manifested itself in the players, who were clearly less than amped before kickoff-which is why the E-SPIN heads will hawk their weekly CFB promo at the Cotton Bowl this week instead of The Swamp. 

Applying this theory to the upcoming SEC showdown, and particularly, the overconfident Tigers of the LSU variety, gives rise to a situation that has been much more favorable to The Gators in recent years;  the role of the underdog.  Naturally, the rigid contingent of fans who worship at the Vegas altar will run to the safety of the current spread, which is Gators by 4-5, to undermine this assertion.  For those who fall into this category, SNL weeps for your lack of understanding.

The fact is that the Gator chatboards, talkshows, and even national media have embarked on a furious “What’s wrong with Florida?” campaign (see SNL’s previous post for more on this).  This engine of discontent has been oiled by Gator fans with disastrous effect ( See Tebow’s stoic reaction after throwing a perfect strike to Harvin last week in last week’s “disgraceful” 38-7 road win as Exhibit “A.”)

Irrespective of the origins, the Gators have found themselves to be underdogs in the eye of the public and more importantly, in the eyes of both Gator and LSU fans.  Therefore, if SNL’s theory holds true, LSU’s players are expecting little adversity on Saturday-the defense will dominate the line of scrimmage and Chuck “The Truck” will run through gaping holes torn in the Baby Gators weak defensive front.

Florida players, conversely, have suffered a shocking loss and heard for weeks now how bad they are. The restless Gator-backers have piled on by openly grousing about the offense’s inability to be perfect and the defense’s seeming lack of progress. 

The predictable result is that the Gators, and their fans, have their backs against the wall.  This in turn means that unlike the poorly prepared and cathartic group of Gators that showed up two weeks ago, The Swamp this Saturday will be the home of a focused, angry, scared, and determined Gator Nation. 

The result, 23-19 Florida, of course. 

But make no mistake Gator fans, there exists a real need to diametrically alter your general tenor, which is eerily similar to the end of Spurrier’s reign, when winning by too little was grounds to attack the OBC and losing was unacceptable.  The current spate of negativity surrounding the Gators should work in our favor this week, but in the long run it will run off coaches, dissuade recruits and make Gator football a “chore” instead of a treat.  Govern yourselves accordingly.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tags: Gators, LSU, SEC, Tebow, Urban

LSU v. FLORIDA: TRASH TALK TUESDAY

October 7, 2008 in Fans, Gators, Main Content, SEC, SEC Fans, UGA | No comments

  SNL awoke today to find the grass greener, the sky “bluer,” and air fresher.  Why?  Because we are one day closer to the Florida v. LSU.  As if this simple truth was insufficient, LSU DE, Ricky Jean-Francois, provided a nice jolt (for a Tuesday) when he was quoted in the Daily Reveille as stating that he wouldn’t mind hurting Florida’s quixotix QB, Tebow.  Here’s the article:  

The LSU defensive line’s opening shot at the 2007 Heisman winner could resemble “a car wreck without a seat belt,” LSU junior defensive tackle Ricky Jean-Francois told The Orlando Sentinel.SNL, for one, thinks this quote is great news and thanks the dallying Frenchmen who decided to insert himself (figuratively perverts) into the bloodline that ultimately spawned Jean-Francois. 

“If we get a good shot on [Tebow], we’re going to try our best to take him out of the game,” Jean-Francois said. “With his size and his heart, it’s hard to get a clean shot.”

Tebow can rely on Florida’s trainers to help him if the Tigers do injure him, Jean-Francois added.

“If he does get hurt, there’s a trained medical staff at Florida, so you can go to the training room on Sunday,” Jean-Francois said.

The 6-foot-3-inch, 289-pound defensive tackle said his sentiment was not out of the ordinary.

“I think every lineman wants to get a good hit on a Heisman Trophy winner,” he said.

 

Moving on…

LSU plays Florida, ‘Bama and Georgia over the next three weeks-brutal. 

LSU’s RB, Chuck “The Truck” Scott has rushed for over 100 yards in each game this season.  He’s a beast and LSU’s offensive line, which includes 6′7 389 lb. guard, Herman Johnson, should be problematic.  This is a game in which Spikes must show up big time as Florida will need double-digit tackles from the Mike position to have any success on defense.  SNL expects to see alot of man-coverage on 1st-down and remains guardedly optimistic that Haden, who is improving weekly, will be able to lock down one side of the field.  In obvious passing situations we can expect a fairly heavy dose of the zone blitz given the fron-4’s inability to wreak havoc on their own.  More about this later… 

For now, suffice it to say that the importance of this game will continue to grow as the week wears on and Gator backers can expect the E-SPIN heads and the national pundits to pile on the LSU bandwagon as kickoff nears.  Never doubt, however, that the talent, coaching, and chemistry necessary to slay the Tigers of the LSU variety is present on this Gator team and that which need be done, will be done.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Gators, LSU, Miles, SEC, Urban

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