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WHAT GATORS SHOULD KNOW TODAY…

October 5, 2008 in Gators, Main Content, SEC, SEC Fans, Saban | 1 comment

Like  most Gators. SNL contributed to the angst over everything even tangentially related to the this year’s Gator team (and even the future of the football program in general) over the past week.

The (in retrospect) inevitable manifestation of this “noise,” which was anything but positive, was a Gator team that pressed for the better part of 3 quarters Saturday and appeared to most to be without emotion.  Which, in the scheme of things, is a  bit of a travesty considering that college football, even major college football, should be “fun” for players, fans, and coaches not named Saban.  The lack of enthusiasm was epitomized in the 3rd quarter when Tebow, who is typically more enthusiastic during a game than a 12-year old girl crank-calling boys at a slumber party, stoically walked off the field after throwing a laser to Harvin in the end zone.

It was at this precise moment that SNL realized that all the negativity (which is well-chronicled in Dooley’s column today), however well-intentioned, has clearly infiltrated the Gator lockerroom.  So, the theme this week for SNL, at least it relates to the Gators, is “positivity.”  SNL has already rearranged the furniture for a more feng shui aura and approached the hippies next door about some of that stinky lettuce they use as a condiment.

In addition, in a pre-emptive attempt to stave off the faction of Gators who will find a way to spin yesterday’s 31-point road win into an unmitigated disaster, SNL will “re-frame” the mindset of its readers who, like SNL, looked at the Hawgs games against two consecutive top-5 opponents as an indictment of Arkansas’ ability to play competitive football. 

 Since most Gator fans want to use Arkansas’ games against the ‘Bama and the Horns as the basis for comparison, SNL offers the following as a soothing balm:  

1.  Against 2nd-ranked ‘Bama, Arkansas compiled 19 first downs (5 more than ‘Bama) and 301 total yards.  It was the 4-interceptions (2 returned for TD) that made this game a blowout. 

2.  5th-ranked Texas rushed for 220 yards and passed for 201 against Arkansas en route to a 52-10 victory.

3.  Florida put up 514 yards of offense (236 passing and 278 rushing), far more than either ‘Bama or the Horns, and allowed only 60 more yards than ‘Bama’s heralded defensive unit.

4.  Florida gave up 221 yards passing yesterday, ‘Bama allowed 217.

5.  Florida, often rushing only 3, sacked the Hawg QB 4 times, ‘Bama managed only 2.

The inescapable conclusion is that Florida’s effort yesterday is on par with that of Top-5 behemoths, ‘Bama and Texas.  And, Arkansas is a team that is on the verge of being good.  The ‘Hawgs have one of the best and most innovative offensive coaches in football (who, incidentally, would be Florida’s coach if Pope Urban had accepted the Notre Dame job), a senior quarterback and very good tailback. 

Naturally, the prophets of Gator doom who masquerade as “hardcore fans” will continue to question the spread offense, Florida’s lack of a dominating defense, and Mullen’s ability to gameplan.  However, in the aggregate, yesterday’s blowout win provided Gators fans with more reasons for optimism than not, and those that would tell you different should be seen for what they are, which isn’t much.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Gators, Saban, SEC, Tebow, Urban

ARKANSAS: A DANGEROUS GAME FOR FLORIDA?

October 2, 2008 in Main Content, SEC, SEC Fans | No comments

 Gators, meet Joe Haden.  He’s the above-average cornerback that “jumped the route” last week in The Swamp.  The result, as we all know, was a play the likes of which hasn’t been seen since Buck Belue to Lindsay Scott (look it up neophytes) which in turn has led to the fine mess we Gators are in now. 

Unfortunately for Haden, the untimely decision to gamble-which admittedly, looked much worse due to the lumbering free safety’s inability provide deep help-has made Arkansas a dangerous team.  No, not dangerous in the sense that the Hawgs pose a viable threat to the Gators, but dangerous in the sense that anything short of a total beatdown of this team will be deemed a colossal failure and spawn a fresh round of thickly Southern-accented attacks on the Gators over the local airwaves. 

Hell, it’s gotten so bad on this week’s localtalk radio shows, which are  hosted primarily by prominent Ex-Gators os Spuurier lineage who comprise a de facto  junta in Gville, has devolved from a general indictment of the offense, into pointed attacks on Mullen and surprisingly, the formerly untouchable Tebow.

In addition to spawning another week of verbally incontinent assaults on the Gators by the…err….more “rural-minded” fans ( PC enough Pierce?), allowing Arkansas any success at all Saturday will provide the national media with another reason to question this team and most importantly, will serve to undermine the confidence of the players heading into next week’s ostensible showdown with LSU.

Now, for those of you who view Saturday’s in October to be nothing more than a chance to down some barley-pops and check out this year’s crop of UF co-eds, the obvious pressure on the Gators, as 24-point road favorites coming off a shocking home loss, is incomprehensible.  Well this is the same way SNL feels about you when you show up at the tailgate with your sweater draped over your shoulders and loosely knotted in front of your soup-bowl chest. You know who you are “sweater-guy,”  you were among the ever-optimistic group shouting “a win is a win” from the rooftops after Florida’s seemingly one-sided wins over UT and UM. 

For the rest of us, who recognized early on that this year’s team was not without significant flaws, what was once a constructive bye week, has become more than a “must win,” it has become a veritable Waterloo for the Gators-on both sides of the ball.  And don’t think the players and coaches don’t know it. 

In retrospect, the pressure began before the season, when the national pundits heightened the expectations of this year’s Gator offense to a nearly unattainable level.  And, with each successive game, the failure to live up to the offensive expectations engendered a fear amongst Gator-backers that the offense might not be as good as advertised. These fears continued to crescendo following UM and UT, but were drowned out by the lofty ranking, (seemingly) much improved defense, and the unsubstantiated belief that the offense was employing a “rope-a-dope” tactic before opening up the big guns later in the year.  Following the Ole Miss game, even those most willing to swill copious amounts of Gator kool-aid have opened themselves to the possibility that this team is overrated.

The distillation of the foregoing facts has given rise to a dire situation this week as the Gators go on the road to play the SEC’s worst team.  The Gators are injured.  Arkansas has been blown out in consecutive weeks against top-5 foes, Alabama and Texas, but Petrino knows how to throw the ball.  And, like it or not Gator fans, Florida’s secondary and pass rush remain questionable and the offense is without direction or identity at this point. 

So, Gators, this Saturday can be summed up as follows:  The Gators  must play a perfect game against Arkansas to have a chance next week in The Swamp and this, my friends, is what is known as “pressure.” 

 -So Sayeth the Shepherd

Up Next:  Thursday’s Games

Photo courtesy of AP-wire

Tags: Arkansas, LSU, SEC, Urban

FOR THE WATER COOLER…

October 1, 2008 in ATS, Fans, SEC, SEC Fans, UGA | No comments

  FLORIDA VS. HAWAII  SNL recognizes that there exists somewhere a group of Gator fans who, whether by nature, nurture, or prescription drugs, are able to find the proverbial “silver lining” following a home loss to a 23-point underdog.  Each of us knows one these eternally (and frustratingly) optimistic types, always quoting the latest inspirational message from a book or seminar on “10 ways to influence people,” or “How to make friends for life in 5 minutes.” 

SNL, prone to philanthropy, writes this post in honor of this opiated group of Urban Kool-aid drinkers, who have likely gotten over Saturday’s loss and moved on while the rest have continued to openly lament the Gators’ woes.

The chart on the above right is Dr. Saturday’s “wasted yards” compilation.  The concept, ingenious in its simplicity, is essentially a way of parsing the statistics to determine which team “wasted” the most yards and to what effect.

As you can see, Florida outgained the Rebs by 100+ yards (take away 2 plays, and the number become 220 yards), and nearly tripled the Rebs in 1st Downs.  Florida, however, racked up 167 “wasted” yards to Ole Miss’ 15.  What this means is that Ole Miss’ offense was “feast or famine,” racking up 8 “3 and outs,” but scoring on almost every possession in which they gained a first down. 

Florda, conversely, while vastly more consistent, left points all over the field-a blown 4th down in Ole Miss territory in the 1st Quarter, settling for a field goal in the red zone, a fumble in Reb territory in the second, a punt from the Ole Miss 40 in the 4th, an extra missed point and the infamous 4th and 1 failure.  Not to mention the lost fumbles in the 3rd Quarter.

Sure, there are those among you that continue to believe that the Gator offense couldn’t be worse if Congress was calling the plays, and there is ample evidence to support your position.  However, Mr. “The SEC and National titles are still on the table,” and Mrs. “We lost in 2006 too, and look how that turned out,” can spin the nearly unparalleled ineptitude displayed in The Swamp last Saturday their way too.  Chiefly by pointing out that fumbling and blocked PAT’s are almost always cyclical and like hurricanes, tornados, and lightning, seldom strike the same place (or team) twice, at least to the extent we saw last week. 

 In other words, if even 1 of Florida’s miscues last week does no occur, Florida wins, albeit by a margin much smaller than the 23-point spread.  Now, before you go getting all giddy like a sugared up pre-adolescent, bear in mind that margin for error is significantly decreased against the LSU’s and Georgia’s of the world and therefore, a modest improvement will not stave off a 2nd or 3rd loss in the weeks to come-not with this defense.  For today anyway, this will have to do because, after all, the goals of the Gators, and their fans, are all  “still on the table.”

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

Tags: Fans, Rebs, SEC, Urban

FLORIDA: THE ALTERNATIVE TRUTH

September 30, 2008 in Fans, Main Content, SEC, SEC Fans | No comments

 Before last week’s game, Gainesville Sun Sports Editor and Columnist, Robbie Andreu, put pen to paper and inked the following:

The more I think about Urban Meyer’s no-risk approach on offense, the more brilliant it seems.

SNL is not in the business of impugning the intelect or foresight of those who chronicle the Gators, so this post is by no means meant to be an excoriation exercise at Andreu’s expense.  That said there were plenty of non-journalism degree holders who watched the Gators “play it close to the vest” for 3 games and weren’t nearly as convinced of Urban’s genius heading into the Ole Miss game as Andreu was.  In fact, there was vocal minority of Gator-backers who believed before last Saturday that there were clearly-defined cracks in the Gator facade.

While it is difficult to tell if the “vocal minority” has garnered the numbers necessary to become a majority, it is clear from national pundits (see SI’s Mandel), local airwaves, and state fishwraps that Urban Meyer is no longer beyond reproach. Nor should he be since he is the head coach at one of the nation’s premiere football programs and oh yeah, a multi-millionaire as a result. 

Unswayed by the logic of his collegue and presumed friend, Gainesville Sun Columinist, Pat Dooley writes in today’s paper:

I think the emphasis on having Tebow become a better pocket passer has backfired to a point. We saw it Saturday against Ole Miss when Tebow was sacked three times and that doesn’t include the pass he threw to [offensive lineman] Maurkice Pouncey under pressure or any of the others that went awry because he held the ball too long.

That’s not Timmy being Timmy.
[...]
I’d let Tebow be Tebow, let him pull it down and run when the play isn’t there. Get him out of the pocket to throw on the run more. Tell him it’s OK again to be the guy he was last season.

As blog-god Dr. Saturday points out, Tebow averaged 15 carries per game last season, which is (drumroll please), the exact number of carries Tebow had against the Rebs.  Tebow also had a banner day in the pocket, passing for 319 yards.  The real difference between 2007 Tebow and 2008 Tebow seems less about the carries, or his ability to “create” Rembrandt quality works of art when the play implodes, than it is about Florida’s ability to field an offensive line that is without injury and knows its assignments.  Two starters were injured and did not play (or played sparingly) in the second half last Saturday and not to be outdone, Florida’s D-line has quickly deteriorated from the platoon of young bucks capable of wreaking modest amounts of havoc using a heavy rotation, into an ad-hoc unit of comprised of those warm-bodied males that remain available after the most recent round of season-threatening injuries.

However the occurrences of last Saturday may have manifested themselves in the psyche of the Florida offensive machine, the most glaring problem is a holdover from last year’s campaign of mediocracy:  Defense.  Predictably, Meyer remained stoically countenanced following the Ole Miss game, and even went so far as to openly place the blame for the loss at the feet of the offense, which fumbled on consecutive plays and proferred to the Rebels 3 drives of 50 yards or less as a token of its appreciation. 

Football exists on a continuum and to be sure, the offense’s willigness to part with the ball played a key role in the Gators undoing. But this rigid interpretation of Saturday’s drama misses the mark by failing to account for the secondary’s colossal failure on 3rd and 7, which resulted in an 86-yard touchdown pass.  Even accounting for X’s, O’s, leverage and technique, it is nearly impossible to explain how Florida could be burned for an 86-yard touchdown pass on a 3rd and long.  Thus, even though Florida’s secondary has generally been improved this year, the spectre of the “big play,” which embodies the legacy of the 2007 Gator defense, seems likely to play an equally importnat role in the 2008 production.  In fact, Both of Ole Miss’ touchdown passes came on 3rd down, and another completion on 3rd and long led  to McCluster’s 40-yard jaunt to paydirt. 

In the end, it now appears that Urban’s newfound adherence to the currency minted by the Coaches of yore (ball control, field position, turnovers etc…) is unlikely to yield victories against quality opponents as long as Florida’s defense, which remains young, is vulnerable to game-altering plays against opponents backed up on their own 14-yard line.  Which is another way of saying Dooley has probably hit the mark by proposing that this offense find a way to recapture last year’s explosiveness because the recently unamske defense is likely to have some tough afternoons in the future. 

For this week anyway, Florida should be able harness its opponent into a chest-thumping return of the swagger it posessed following the UT victory.  The unpalatable reciprocal, of course, is that even a small measure of success by Arkansas QB, Dick, will likely trigger severe PTSD from Gator-backers who suffered through Saturday’s Shakespearean tragedy.  Heading into what should be Florida’s “Waterloo” the following week, this Saturday’s contest is all about instilling faith in themselves and their fans for the Gators, because they will need an abundance of both to have a chance against LSU.

-So Sayeth the Shepherd

 

 

 

 

Tags: LSU, SEC, Urban

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